Abstract
Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong people between October 4 to 10, 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted after the marine accident which occurred during the National Day holiday shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has rebounded, with support rating of 49.2 marks and approval rate of 39%, reaching to the level of early August. His net popularity now stands at negative 6 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 60.1 marks, her approval rate is 58%, disapproval rate 12%, giving a net popularity of positive 46 percentage points. Latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 56.6 marks, approval rate 52%, disapproval rate 12%, giving a net approval rate of positive 40 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 51.2 marks, approval rate 25%, disapproval rate 8%, and his net popularity stands at positive 17 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rate of 8 of the 12 Directors have gone up, 3 have gone down and 1 remains unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan and Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung have registered changes in net approval rates beyond sampling error, up by 11, 9 and 7 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan register negative popularity, at negative 30 and 35 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Matthew Cheung, Carrie Lam, Lai Tung-kwok and John Tsang now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Ceajer Chan, Anthony Cheung, CY Leung, Tsang Tak-sing and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, and that of Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Gregory So, Rimsky Yuen and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Paul Chan can be labeled as “depressing” while no one falls into the category of “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net approval rates needs another calculation. The response rate of survey is 66%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 65.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages of each survey is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net approval rates needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
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Latest Figures
POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2012. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
4-10/10/2012 |
1,006 |
65.8% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values) |
Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values) |
1,300 |
+/- 2.8 % |
1,350 |
+/- 2.7 % |
1,200 |
+/- 2.9 % |
1,250 |
+/- 2.8 % |
1,100 |
+/- 3.0 % |
1,150 |
+/- 3.0 % |
1,000 |
+/- 3.2 % |
1,050 |
+/- 3.1 % |
900 |
+/- 3.3 % |
950 |
+/- 3.2 % |
800 |
+/- 3.5 % |
850 |
+/- 3.4 % |
700 |
+/- 3.8 % |
750 |
+/- 3.7 % |
600 |
+/- 4.1 % |
650 |
+/- 3.9 % |
500 |
+/- 4.5 % |
550 |
+/- 4.3 % |
400 |
+/- 5.0 % |
450 |
+/- 4.7 % |
[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.
Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:
Date of survey |
17-20/7/12 |
2-8/8/12 |
14-18/8/12 |
3-7/9/12 |
18-27/9/12 |
4-10/10/12 |
Latest change |
Sample base |
1,018 |
1,002 |
1,019 |
1,005 |
1,037 |
1,006 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
65.8% |
65.9% |
66.6% |
64.6% |
67.8% |
65.8% |
-- |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error[8] |
-- |
Rating of CE CY Leung |
51.2[9] |
51.6 |
49.0[9] |
46.5[9] |
46.0 |
49.2+/-1.6 |
+3.2[9] |
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung |
41%[9] |
39% |
36% |
33% |
33% |
39+/-3% |
+6%[9] |
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung |
45%[9] |
47% |
48% |
50% |
50% |
45+/-3% |
-5%[9] |
Net approval rate |
-4%[9] |
-8% |
-12% |
-17% |
-17% |
-6+/-6% |
+11%[9] |
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
Date of survey |
30/5-6/6/12 |
9-11/7/12 |
2-8/8/12 |
3-7/9/12 |
4-10/10/12 |
Latest change [10] |
Sample base[10] |
521-566 |
529-572 |
523-563 |
577-631 |
579-584 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
63.7% |
69.1% |
65.9% |
64.6% |
65.8% |
-- |
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [11] |
-- |
Rating of CS Carrie Lam |
-- |
64.0 |
62.0[12] |
58.1[12] |
60.1+/-1.9 |
+2.0[12] |
Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam |
-- |
60% |
59% |
55% |
58+/-4% |
+3% |
Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam |
-- |
8% |
11% |
14% |
12+/-3% |
-2% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
52% |
48% |
41%[12] |
46+/-6% |
+5% |
Rating of FS John Tsang |
52.9 |
56.4[12] |
58.1[12] |
54.3[12] |
56.6+/-1.5 |
+2.3[12] |
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang |
44% |
49%[12] |
54%[12] |
53% |
52+/-4% |
-1% |
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang |
16% |
16% |
13% |
12% |
12+/-3% |
-- |
Net approval rate |
28% |
33% |
41%[12] |
41% |
40+/-6% |
-1% |
Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen |
-- |
49.0 |
50.6 |
49.1 |
51.2+/-1.8 |
+2.1[12] |
Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
-- |
24% |
23% |
24% |
25+/-4% |
+1% |
Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
-- |
12% |
8%[12] |
6% |
8+/-2% |
+2% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
12% |
15% |
18% |
17+/-5% |
-1% |
[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:
Date of survey |
2-8/8/12 |
3-7/9/12 |
4-10/10/12 |
Latest change |
Sample base [13] |
514-588 |
551-643 |
515-579 |
-- |
Overall response rate |
65.9% |
64.6% |
65.8% |
-- |
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer |
Base |
% |
Base |
% |
Base |
% & error [14] |
-- |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man |
531 |
67% |
607 |
69% |
573 |
73+/-4% |
+4% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man |
531 |
5% |
607 |
3% |
573 |
3+/-1% |
-- |
Net approval rate |
-- |
62% |
-- |
66% |
-- |
70+/-4% |
+4% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung |
538 |
65% |
615 |
55%[15] |
534 |
65+/-4% |
+10%[15] |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung |
538 |
8% |
615 |
7% |
534 |
6+/-2% |
-1% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
57% |
-- |
48%[15] |
-- |
59+/-5% |
+11%[15] |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok |
527 |
45%[15] |
619 |
54%[15] |
569 |
53+/-4% |
-1% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok |
527 |
11% |
619 |
11% |
569 |
10+/-3% |
-1% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
34%[15] |
-- |
43%[15] |
-- |
43+/-6% |
-- |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan |
531 |
44% |
551 |
38%[15] |
579 |
47+/-4% |
+9%[15] |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan |
531 |
6% |
551 |
7% |
579 |
7+/-2% |
-- |
Net approval rate |
-- |
38% |
-- |
31%[15] |
-- |
40+/-5% |
+9%[15] |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung |
514 |
41%[15] |
643 |
41% |
574 |
43+/-4% |
+2% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung |
514 |
12% |
643 |
14% |
574 |
9+/-2% |
-5%[15] |
Net approval rate |
-- |
29% |
-- |
27% |
-- |
34+/-5% |
+7%[15] |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
542 |
28%[15] |
605 |
33%[15] |
515 |
35+/-4% |
+2% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
542 |
15%[15] |
605 |
10%[15] |
515 |
13+/-3% |
+3% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
13%[15] |
-- |
23%[15] |
-- |
22+/-6% |
-1% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam |
542 |
32%[15] |
578 |
36% |
530 |
33+/-4% |
-3% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam |
542 |
14% |
578 |
13% |
530 |
12+/-3% |
-1% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
18% |
-- |
23% |
-- |
21+/-6% |
-2% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So |
561 |
26%[15] |
598 |
26% |
554 |
26+/-4% |
-- |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So |
561 |
14% |
598 |
13% |
554 |
10+/-3% |
-3% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
12%[15] |
-- |
13% |
-- |
16+/-5% |
+3% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang |
588 |
24% |
635 |
20% |
553 |
20+/-3% |
-- |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang |
588 |
6% |
635 |
9%[15] |
553 |
6+/-2% |
-3%[15] |
Net approval rate |
-- |
18% |
-- |
11%[15] |
-- |
14+/-4% |
+3% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing |
530 |
37% |
557 |
34% |
563 |
38+/-4% |
+4% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing |
530 |
24%[15] |
557 |
28% |
563 |
26+/-4% |
-2% |
Net approval rate |
-- |
13% |
-- |
6% |
-- |
12+/-7% |
+6% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng |
527 |
20%[15] |
601 |
17% |
566 |
19+/-3% |
+2% |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng |
527 |
48%[15] |
601 |
49% |
566 |
49+/-4% |
-- |
Net approval rate |
-- |
-28%[15] |
-- |
-32% |
-- |
-30+/-6% |
+2% |
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan |
529 |
17% |
619 |
16% |
563 |
16+/-3% |
-- |
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Paul Chan |
529 |
42% |
619 |
45% |
563 |
51+/-4% |
+6%[15] |
Net approval rate |
-- |
-25% |
-- |
-29% |
-- |
-35+/-6% |
-6% |
[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 49.2 marks, and 39% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 6 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 60.1, 56.6 and 51.2 marks, and 58%, 52% and 25% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 46, 40 and 17 percentage points respectively.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 70 percentage points. The 2nd to 4th places belonged to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan with net approval rates positive 59, 43 and 40 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan ranked 5th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 34, positive 22, positive 21, positive 16, positive 14, positive 12, negative 30 and negative 35 percentage points. In other words, only Ko Wing-man and Matthew Cheung scored net approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 3 to 7 September, 2012 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 10 October, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
8/10/12 |
Chief Executive CY Leung announces Moral & National Education subject guidelines will be shelved. |
4/10/12 |
Hong Kong goes into three days of mourning today for the 38 people killed in the ferry disaster. |
1/10/12 |
Two ferries collide off Lamma Island. |
25/9/12 |
Minimum Wage Commission proposes to increase minimum wage to $30 per hour. |
22/9/12 |
6,000 people attend public forum over plans to develop northeastern New Territories. |
10/9/12 |
Pro-establlishment candidates and Pan-democratic candidates secure 43 and 27 seats respectively in the Legislative Council election. |
9/9/12 |
The 2012 Legislative Council election records a turnout rate of 53%. |
8/9/12 |
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying scraps the three-year deadline for implementation of national education curriculum. |
7/9/12 |
Tens of thousands estimate to have descended on the government's headquarters at Tamar site against the national education curriculum. |
6/9/12 |
Chief Executive CY Leung announces only Hong Kong permanent residents will be able to buy flats at two new Kai Tak development. |
3/9/12 |
Chief Secretary Carrie Lam says the question of national studies cannot be simplified as to whether or not the Government is prepared to withdraw the subject. |
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Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.
Our latest survey conducted after the marine accident which occurred during the National Day holiday shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has rebounded, with support rating of 49.2 marks and approval rate of 39%, reaching to the level of early August. His net popularity now stands at negative 6 percentage points.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 60.1 marks, her approval rate is 58%, disapproval rate 12%, giving a net popularity of positive 46 percentage points. Latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 56.6 marks, approval rate 52%, disapproval rate 12%, giving a net approval rate of positive 40 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 51.2 marks, approval rate 25%, disapproval rate 8%, and his net popularity stands at positive 17 percentage points. Carrie Lam remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rate of 8 of the 12 Directors have gone up, 3 have gone down and 1 remains unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan and Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung have registered changes in net approval rates beyond sampling error, up by 11, 9 and 7 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Secretary for Education Eddie Ng and Secretary for Development Paul Chan register negative popularity, at negative 30 and 35 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man continues to be the most popular Director.
According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Matthew Cheung, Carrie Lam, Lai Tung-kwok and John Tsang now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Ceajer Chan, Anthony Cheung, CY Leung, Tsang Tak-sing and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, and that of Wong Kam-sing, Raymond Tam, Gregory So, Rimsky Yuen and Paul Tang can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Paul Chan can be labeled as “depressing” while no one falls into the category of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (73%) |
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"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (65%); CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (58%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (53%); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (52%) |
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"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (47%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (43%); CE Leung Chun-ying (39%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (38%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (19%) |
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"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (35%, 47%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (33%, 45%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (26%, 37%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (25%, 33%); Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok-wai (20%, 26%) |
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"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
Secretary for Development Paul Chan Mo-po (51%) |
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"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
-- |
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Future Release (Tentative)
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| Abstract | Latest Figures |Opinion Daily |Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |
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