HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of Executive CouncillorsBack

Press Release on October 9, 2012

Abstract

The latest survey conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong shows that four of the ‘top 5’ non-official Executive Councillors are newly appointed Councillors, they are Lam Woon-kwong, Arthur Li, Starry Lee and Fanny Law. In terms of absolute ratings, only Lam Woon-kwong gets more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Lam Koon-kwong occupies the first position, the second to fifth places go to Anna Wu, Arthur Li, Starry Lee and Fanny Law in descending order. It should be noted, however, that our list of ‘top 5’ only includes non-official Councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other Councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known Councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figures is below +/-2.2 marks. The response rate of the rating survey is 66%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey on top 5 Executive Councillors is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 68.0% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,020 successful interviews, not 1,020 x 66.3% response rate.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.2 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of Executive Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 mid-year.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings^[6]
19-27/9/2012 (First stage naming survey)	1,005	68.0%	+/-4%
28/9-5/10/2012 (Second stage rating survey)	1,020	66.3%	+/-2.2

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our “Top 5 Executive Councillors” is similar to that of our “Top 10” series, it is explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our web page. The top Councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from late September. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Latest findings of the naming survey are as follows:

Date of survey	11-20/7/11	13-20/10/11	3-6/1/12	24/4-2/5/12	19-27/9/12	Latest Change in Ranking
Sample base	1,028	1,040	1,007	1,034	1,005^[7]	--
Overall response rate	66.4%	69.8%	65.1%	64.8%	68.0%	--
Finding/ Error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[7]	--
Starry Lee	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	12+/-3%{1}	--
Lam Woon-kwong	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	9+/-2%{2}	--
Fanny Law	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	7+/-2%{3}	--
Bernard Chan	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	6+/-2%{4} ^[8]	--
Anna Wu	1%{9}	2%{7}	1%{7}	0%{10}	6+/-2%{5}^[8]	↑5
Arthur Li	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	4+/-2%{6}^[9]	--
Cheng Yiu-tong	7%{2}	7%{3}	7%{3}	9%{1}	4+/-2%{7}^[9]	↓6
Barry Cheung	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	2+/-1%{8}	--
Laura Cha	1%{8}	1%{8}	1%{9}	2%{6}	1+/-1%{9}^[10]	↓3
Cheung Chi-kong	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	1+/-1%{10}^[10]	--
Franklin Lam	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	1+/-1%{11}^[10]	--
Andrew Liao	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	1+/-1%{12}^[10]	--
Chow Chung-kong	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	1+/-1%{13}^[10]	--
Cheung Hok-ming	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	--^[11]	1+/-1%{14}^[10]	--
Wrong answer	27%	33%	31%	18%	17+/-3%	--
Don’t know/hard to say	50%	51%	53%	72%	66+/-4%	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings in our naming survey. Councillors with the same recognition rate will be ranked according to the decimal place of the corresponding percentages. Please refer to the POP Site for detailed figures of the previous surveys. The error margin of previous surveys can also be found at the POP Site. The sub-sample size for this survey is 623.

[8] The percentages of respondents who could name Bernard Chan and Anna Wu were 6.0% and 5.9%, so Bernard Chan ranked the 4th, while Anna Wu was placed at the 5th rank.
[9] The percentages of respondents who could name Arthur Li and Cheng Yiu-tong were 4.0% and 3.7%, so Arthur Li ranked the 6th, while Cheng Yiu-tong was placed at the 7th rank.
[10] The percentages of respondents who could name Laura Cha, Cheung Chi-kong, Franklin Lam, Andrew Liao, Chow Chung-kong and Cheung Hok-ming were 1.45%, 1.3%, 0.92%, 0.87%, 0.7% and 0.6%. Hence Laura Cha ranked the 9th, Cheung Chi-kong ranked the 10th , Franklin Lam ranked the 11th , Andrew Liao ranked the 12th, Chow Chung-kong ranked the 13th while Cheung Hok-ming was placed at the 14th rank.
[11] Not a non-official Executive Councillor during the survey period.

The naming survey conducted from late September showed that Starry Lee was named most frequently with a recognition rate of 12%. Lam Woon-kwong, Fanny Law, Bernard Chan and Anna Wu with recognition rate of 9%, 7%, 6%, and 6%, and ranked the 2nd to 5th. However, 17% made a wrong attempt at citing Executive Councillors (non-official) while 66% had no clue.

Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in late September to early October, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed Councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 Councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	21-25/7/11	25/10-2/11/11	9-14/1/12	3-10/5/12	28/9-5/10/12		Latest change
Sample base	551-642	550-660	525-612	630-686	565-676		--
Overall response rate	67.1%	65.5%	67.3%	64.6%	66.3%		--
Finding/ Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error ^[12]	Recognition rate	--
Lam Woon-kwong	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	55.9{1}+/-1.6	80.4%	--
Anna Wu	--	--	--	--	49.8{2}+/-2.1	79.2%	--
Arthur Li	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	49.3{3}+/-1.9	82.0%	--
Starry Lee	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	47.2{4}+/-2.2	74.0%	--
Fanny Law	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	46.2{5}+/-2.1	87.9%	--
Bernard Chan	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	--^[15]	57.8+/-1.9^[13]	62.5%	--
Cheng Yiu-tong	42.2{4}	44.0{3}	46.7{3}^[14]	45.6{3}	--	--	--
Laura Cha	--	--	--	48.7 ^[13]	--	--	--

[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.2 marks at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[13] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[14] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[15] Not a non-official Executive Councillor during the survey period.

The latest rating survey conducted in late September to early October showed that Lam Woon-kwong was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 55.9 marks. The 2nd and 3rd ranks went to Anna Wu and Arthur Li with 49.8 and 49.3 marks respectively. The 4th and 5th ranks went to Starry Lee and Fanny Law with 47.2 and 46.2 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 49.7 marks. For this latest survey, Bernard Chan obtained a support rating of 57.8 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	25/10-2/11/11		9-14/1/12	3-10/5/12	28/9-5/10/12	No.of times on top 5	Average rating ^[16]	Overall ranking ^[17]
Ronald Arculli	51.6	53.6		51.3	--^[18]	3	52.2	1
Cheng Yiu-tong	44.0	46.7		45.6	--	3	45.5	2
Lau Kong-wah	42.2	44.9		44.9	--^[18]	3	44.0	3
Lau Wong-fat	38.6	35.6		34.6	--^[18]	3	36.2	4
Leong Che-hung	48.1	50.2		--	--^[18]	2	49.2	5
Lam Woon-kwong	--^[18]	--^[18]		--^[18]	55.9	1	55.9	6
Anthony Cheung	--	--		52.4	--^[18]	1	52.4	7
Anna Wu	--	--		--	49.8	1	49.8	8
Arthur Li	--^[18]	--^[18]		--^[18]	49.3	1	49.3	9
Starry Lee	--^[18]	--^[18]		--^[18]	47.2	1	47.2	10
Fanny Law	--^[18]	--^[18]		--^[18]	46.2	1	46.2	11

[16] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
[17] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 5, and then their average ratings.
[18] Not a non-official Executive Councillor during the survey period.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that four non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for three times. Ronald Arculli, Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat ranked 1st to 4th place respectively and achieved average ratings of 52.2, 45.5, 44.0 and 36.2 marks. Leong Che-hung has been on the list twice with an average rating of 49.2 marks, ranked the 5th. Lam Woon-kwong, Anthony Cheung, Anna Wu, Arthur Li, Starry Lee and Fanny Law have been on the list once with average ratings of 55.9, 52.4, 49.8, 49.3, 47.2 and 46.2 marks, ranked at the 6th and 11th places respectively.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from May 3 to 10, 2012 while this survey was conducted from September 28 to October 5, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

25/9/12	Minimum Wage Commission proposes to increase minimum wage to $30 per hour.
22/9/12	6,000 people attend public forum over plans to develop northeastern New Territories.
8/9/12	Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying scraps the three-year deadline for implementation of national education curriculum.
6/9/12	Chief Executive CY Leung announces only Hong Kong permanent residents will be able to buy flats at two new Kai Tak development.
3/9/12	Chief Secretary Carrie Lam says the question of national studies cannot be simplified as to whether or not the Government is prepared to withdraw the subject.
31/8/12	Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying says multi-entry permits would not be issued to non-permanent residents of Shenzhen in the next three weeks.
30/8/12	CE CY Leung releases 10 new measures to increase the supply of residential units.
29/7/12	The organizer said that 90,000 people took part in the protest against the introduction of national education curriculum in schools this year.
16/7/12	Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying gives out HK$7.35 billion of sweeteners in his first question-and-answer session at the Legislative Council.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “The first round of ‘top 5 Executive Councillors’ survey conducted after the change of Chief Executive shows that four of the ‘top 5’ non-official Executive Councillors are newly appointed Councillors, they are Lam Woon-kwong, Arthur Li, Starry Lee and Fanny Law. In terms of absolute ratings, only Lam Woon-kwong gets more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Lam Koon-kwong occupies the first position, the second to fifth places go to Anna Wu, Arthur Li, Starry Lee and Fanny Law in descending order. It should be noted, however, that our list of ‘top 5’ only includes non-official Councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other Councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known Councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the ‘Opinion Daily’ of our POP Site.”

Future Release (Tentative)

October 16, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials