HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on October 3, 2012

Abstract

Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,037 Hong Kong people between 18 and 27 September 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has not changed much since the last survey. With a support rating at 46.0 marks and a net popularity of negative 17 percentage points, his popularity is lingering at his record low. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its satisfaction rate goes up by 4 percentage points to 26%, but its dissatisfaction rate also goes up by 3 percentage points to 49%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 23 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, all five areas register negative values. Its relation with the Central Government registers a negative value for the first time, at negative 2 percentage points, which is the poorest figure since the survey series began in July 1997. The net values of the remaining four items are: maintaining economic prosperity at negative 6 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 15 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 18 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 31 percentage points. Among them, a significant rebound is observed for item of ‘improving people’s livelihood’. The effect of the marine accident which occurred during the National Day holiday can only be seen in the next survey. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,037 successful interviews, not 1,037 x 67.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7%".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 mid-year.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
18-27/9/2012	1,037	67.8%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	9-11/7/12	17-20/7/12	2-8/8/12	14-18/8/12	3-7/9/12	18-27/9/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,000	1,018	1,002	1,019	1,005	1,037	--
Overall response rate	69.1%	65.8%	65.9%	66.6%	64.6%	67.8%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	53.8^[9]	51.2^[9]	51.6	49.0^[9]	46.5^[9]	46.0+/-1.6	-0.5
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	45%	41%^[9]	39%	36%	33%	33+/-3%	--
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	41%	45%^[9]	47%	48%	50%	50+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	4%	-4%^[9]	-8%	-12%	-17%	-17+/-6%	--
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	25%^[9]	--	22%	--	26+/-3%	+4%^[9]
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	42%^[9]	--	46%	--	49+/-4%	+3%
Net satisfaction rate	--	-17%^[9]	--	-24%	--	-23+/-7%	+1%
Mean value^[8]	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=608)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=537)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base =625)	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7%” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 640.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 46.0 marks, and 33% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 17 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 26% were satisfied, whereas 49% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.6, meaning in between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied”.

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	13-20/9/11	14-28/12/11	16-21/3/12	19-25/6/12	18-27/9/12	Latest Change^[13]
Sample base^[13]	514-635	504-529	552-681	512-543	569-691	--
Overall response rate	65.5%	65.9%	62.8%	69.6%	67.8%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding]	Finding	Finding & error^[10]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[11]	39%	46%^[12]	44%	41%	32+/-4%	-9%^[12]
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	28%	26%	24%	27%	34+/-4%	+7%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	+11%	+20%	+20%	+14%	-2+/-6%	-16%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	3.1+/-0.1 (Base =580)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base =504)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base =522)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base =477)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=609)	-0.2^[12]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[11]	31%	32%	40%^[12]	27%^[12]	31+/-4%	+4%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	39%^[12]	38%	34%	45%^[12]	37+/-4%	-8%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	-8%	-6%	+6%	-18%	-6+/-7%	+12%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.8+/-0.1 (Base =627)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base =529)	3.0+/-0.1^[12] (Base =602)	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (Base =519)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base =540)	+0.1
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[11]	27%	32%^[12]	41%^[12]	35%^[12]	29+/-4%	-6%^[12]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	43%	41%	33%^[12]	37%	44+/-4%	+7%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	-16%	-9%	+8%	-2%	-15+/-7%	-13%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.7+/-0.1 (Base =494)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base =506)	3.0+/-0.1^[12] (Base =538)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base =495)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base =588)	-0.2^[12]
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[11]	18%	20%	19%	14%^[12]	26+/-4%	+12%^[12]
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	57%	58%	59%	62%	44+/-4%	-18%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	-39%	-38%	-40%	-48%	-18+/-7%	+30%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.4+/-0.1 (Base =601)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base =516)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base =632)	2.2+/-0.1^[12] (Base =533)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base =583)	+0.5^[12]
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[11]	22%	26%	25%	26%	22+/-3%	-4%^[12]
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	50%	50%	49%	47%	53+/-4%	+6%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	-28%	-24%	-24%	-21%	-31+/-7%	-10%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.5+/-0.1 (Base =568)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base =517)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base =656)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base =499)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base =536)	-0.2^[12]

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[13] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 32%. The government’s performance in maintaining economic prosperity followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 31%. The government’s performance in protecting human rights and freedom also attained a satisfaction percentage of 29%. Finally, a respective of 26% and 22% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in improving people's livelihood as well as developing democracy. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 2.9, 2.8, 2.7, 2.7 and 2.4 respectively, meaning close to “half-half” or “quite dissatisfied” in general.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 19 to 25 June, 2012 while this survey was conducted from 18 to 27 September, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

25/9/12	Minimum Wage Commission proposes to increase minimum wage to $30 per hour.
22/9/12	6,000 people attend public forum over plans to develop northeastern New Territories.
18/9/12	People protest in 100 cities across China in memorial of the 918 incident.
10/9/12	Pro-establishment candidates and Pan-democratic candidates secure 43 and 27 seats respectively in the Legislative Council election.
9/9/12	The 2012 Legislative Council election records a turnout rate of 53%.
8/9/12	Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying scraps the three-year deadline for implementation of national education curriculum.
7/9/12	Tens of thousands estimate to have descended on the government's headquarters at Tamar site against the national education curriculum.
30/8/12	CE CY Leung releases 10 new measures to increase the supply of residential units.
25/8/12	China's gold medallists perform in the Mainland Olympic Gold Medallists Extravaganza.
15/8/12	Hong Kong activists smash their way through Japanese vessels to wave Chinese flags on the Diaoyus.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our survey conducted before the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has not changed much since the last survey. With a support rating slightly at 46.0 marks and a net popularity of negative 17 percentage points, his popularity is lingering at his record low. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its satisfaction rate goes up by 4 percentage points to 26%, but its dissatisfaction rate also goes up by 3 percentage points to 49%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 23 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, all five areas register negative values. Its relation with the Central Government registers a negative value for the first time, at negative 2 percentage points, which is the poorest figure since the survey series began in July 1997. The net values of the remaining four items are: maintaining economic prosperity at negative 6 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 15 percentage points, improving people’s livelihood at negative 18 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 31 percentage points. Among them, a significant rebound is observed for item of ‘improving people’s livelihood’. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily". The effect of the marine accident which occurred during the National Day holiday can only be seen in the next survey."

Future Release (Tentative)

October 9, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 5 Executive Councillors