HKU POP releases the latest trust and confidence indicators Back

Press Release on September 18, 2012

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government/People's Trust in the Taiwan Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future/People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,036 Hong Kong people between 11 and 14 September 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that all trust and confidence indicators have dropped. People's trust in the HKSAR Government drops to a new low since April 2004, their trust in the Central Government drops to a new low since June 2000, giving a net trust value of negative 14 percentage points, and a new high in their distrust level since May 1997. People's confidence in the future of Hong Kong and China, although having net values of positive 12 and 42 percentage points, are at new lows since August 2003 and January 1998 in terms of positive confidence. People's trust in the Taiwan Government has also dropped, but only to a new low since December 2011, with a net trust value of negative 4 percentage points. The legislative election, dispute over national education, and the incidents of Li Wangyang and Diaoyu Islands, may all have contributed to these changing figures. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rates of the surveys are 63%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,036 successful interviews, not 1,036 x 63.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 mid-year. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
11-14/9/2012	1,036	63.1%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments and people's confidence in the future as well as "one country, two systems" are summarized below:

Date of survey	9/2011	12/2011	3/2012	6/2012	9/2012	Latest Change
Total sample size^[7]	1,038	1,005	1,022	1,003	1,036	--
Overall response rate	66.2%	67.4%	63.6%	63.4%	63.1%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[8]	--
Trust in HKSAR Government^[9]	44%^[10]	35%^[10]	36%	35%	34+/-4%	-1%
Distrust in HKSAR Government^[9]	28%	32%	36%	32%	35+/-4%	+3%
Net trust	16%	3%	--	3%	-1+/-7%	-4%
Mean value^[9]	3.2+/-0.1^[10] (Base=487)	3.0+/-0.1^[10] (Base=529)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base =580)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=537)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base =543)	-0.1
Trust in Beijing Government^[9]	35%	33%	39%^[10]	32%^[10]	26+/-4%	-6%^[10]
Distrust in Beijing Government^[9]	33%	32%	34%	37%	40+/-4%	+3%
Net trust	2%	1%	5%	-5%	-14+/-7%	-9%^[10]
Mean value^[9]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base =552)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=527)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base =529)	2.8+/-0.1^[10] (Base=515)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base =536)	-0.1
Trust in Taiwan Government^[9]	16%	18%	31%^[10]	24%^[10]	21+/-3%	-3%
Distrust in Taiwan Government^[9]	34%	30%	28%	29%	25+/-4%	-4%
Net trust	-18%	-12%	3%	-5%	-4+/-7%	+1%
Mean value^[9]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base =364)	2.8+/-0.1^[10] (Base=378)	3.0+/-0.1^[10] (Base =410)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=447)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base =424)	--
Confidence in HK's future	59%	55%	58%	53%^[10]	50+/-4%	-3%
No-confidence in HK's future	34%	37%	35%	32%	38+/-4%	+6%^[10]
Net confidence	25%	18%	23%	21%	12+/-8%	-9%
Confidence in China's future	73%	73%	79%^[10]	67%^[10]	66+/-4%	-1%
No-confidence in China's future	20%^[10]	19%	15%^[10]	23%^[10]	24+/-4%	+1%
Net confidence	53%	54%	64%	44%	42+/-7%	-2%
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	58%	52%^[10]	55%	51%	46+/-4%	-5%^[10]
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	33%	40%^[10]	39%	37%	44+/-4%	+7%^[10]
Net confidence	25%	12%	16%	14%	2+/-8%	-12%^[10]

[7] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 556 to 583, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 34% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 26% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 21% trusted the Taiwan Government. The mean scores of these trust indicators are 2.9, 2.7 and 2.9 respectively, meaning close to "half-half" in general. On the other hand, 50% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 66% had confidence in China's future, while 46% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from June 4 to 12, 2012 while this survey was conducted from September 11 to 14, 2012. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

11/9/12	Japan formally signs a deal to buy three of the five uninhabited Diaoyu Islands from their private Japanese owner for 2.05 billion yen.
10/9/12	Pro-establlishment candidates and Pan-democratic candidates secure 43 and 27 seats respectively in the Legislative Council election.
9/9/12	The 2012 Legislative Council election records a turnout rate of 53%.
8/9/12	Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying scraps the three-year deadline for implementation of national education curriculum.
7/9/12	Tens of thousands estimate to have descended on the government's headquarters at Tamar site against the national education curriculum.
6/9/12	Chief Executive CY Leung announces only Hong Kong permanent residents will be able to buy flats at two new Kai Tak development.
25/8/12	China's gold medallists perform in the Mainland Olympic Gold Medallists Extravaganza.
15/8/12	Hong Kong activists smash their way through Japanese vessels to wave Chinese flags on the Diaoyus.
29/7/12	The organizer said that 90,000 people took part in the protest against the introduction of national education curriculum in schools this year.
16/7/12	Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying gives out HK$7.35 billion of sweeteners in his first question-and-answer session at the Legislative Council.
1/7/12	Many newspapers on the following day report the July 1 demonstration.
30/6/12	President of the People's Republic of China Hu Jin-tao advises the people of Hong Kong to carry forward their fine qualities of solidarity, enterprise and creativity.
27/6/12	The Beijing Government suggests six new policies aimed at boosting economic ties to mark the 15th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China.
21/6/12	Legislators veto to discuss in priority the motion to reorganize the government secretariat.
10/6/12	25,000 protestors demand Li Wangyang probe.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey conducted after the Legislative Council election shows that all trust and confidence indicators have dropped. People's trust in the HKSAR Government drops to a new low since April 2004, their trust in the Central Government drops to a new low since June 2000, giving a net trust value of negative 14 percentage points, and a new high in their distrust level since May 1997. People's confidence in the future of Hong Kong and China, although having net values of positive 12 and 42 percentage points, are at new lows since August 2003 and January 1998 in terms of positive confidence. People's trust in the Taiwan Government has also dropped, but only to a new low since December 2011, with a net trust value of negative 4 percentage points. The legislative election, dispute over national education, and the incidents of Li Wangyang and Diaoyu Islands, may all have contributed to these changing figures. Readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Future Release (Tentative)

September 25, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 cross-strait political figures