HKU POP releases the latest survey on Taiwan issuesBack

Press Release on September 4, 2012

Special Announcement

The “Super DC Election Guessing Game” hosted by the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk) of Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has already been launched, users can now make guesses on the result of the Super DC election due to take place on September 9, until 00:00AM on the election day. The latest situation is that list 807 of Chan Yuen Han leads list 804 of Lau Kong Wah, list 801 of Albert Ho, list 806 of Starry Lee, list 802 of James To, list 805 of Frederick Fung, and list 803 of Kamela Peck, with guestimates of 20%, 17%, 16%, 16%, 14%, 12% and 4% of vote shares respectively.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong people between 21 and 29 August, 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people’s opposition to the independence of Taiwan remains high, but has significantly dropped to 58% compared to six months ago, to register a record low since April 1999. Net opposition now stands at 33 percentage points. People’s judgment that “one country, two systems” should be applicable to Taiwan has dropped back significantly to 43% after going up to 49% six months ago, but still giving a net confidence of positive 3 percentage points. People’s confidence in reunification across the strait, however, has remained unchanged over the past six months, now with a net confidence of negative 3 percentage points, while the percentage of those supporting Taiwan rejoining the UN has also not changed much, with a net support of 10 percentage points. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 65%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 65.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8%”.
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on various Taiwan issues. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
21-29/8/2012	1,004	65.5%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Latest people’s views towards various Taiwan issues are summarized below:

Date of survey^[7]	6/2011	9/2011	12/2011	3/2012	8/2012	Latest Change
Total sample size^[7]	1,034	1,038	1,005	1,014	1,004	--
Overall response rate	66.5%	66.2%	67.4%	62.7%	65.5%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[8]	--
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate	65%	63%	67%	64%	58+/-4%	-6%^[9]
Taiwan independence: Support rate	19%	20%	20%	20%	25+/-4%	+5%^[9]
Net opposition	46%	43%	47%	44%	33+/-7%	-11%
Believed ‘one country, two systems’ was applicable to Taiwan	44%	46%	40%^[9]	49%^[9]	43+/-4%	-6%^[9]
Believed ‘one country, two systems’ was not applicable to Taiwan	40%	37%	44%^[9]	37%^[9]	40+/-4%	+3%
Net value of applicability	4%	9%	-4%	12%	3+/-8%	-9%
Confidence in cross-strait reunification	46%	44%	45%	40%^[9]	40+/-4%	--
No confidence in cross-strait reunification	40%	43%	41%	46%^[9]	43+/-4%	-3%
Net confidence	6%	1%	4%	-6%	-3+/-8%	+3%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate	39%	36%	39%	43%	41+/-4%	-2%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate	37%	41%	39%	34%^[9]	31+/-4%	-3%
Net support	2%	-5%	0%	9%	10+/-7%	+1%

[7] Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 548 to 588, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated. Since 2012, the frequency of surveys has reduced from once every 3 months to half-yearly.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8%" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 58% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas 25% showed support. As for the applicability of “one country, two systems” to Taiwan, 43% gave a positive view while 40% gave a negative answer. 40% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 43% expressed no confidence. 41% supported the rejoining the United Nations of Taiwan while 31% opposed.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from March 22 to 27, 2012 while this survey was conducted from August 21 to 29, 2012. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

22/8/12	Kai Fung 2 docks at the Star Ferry Pier in Tsim Sha Tsui.
19/8/12	Anti Japanese demonstrations break out in several mainland cities.
15/8/12	Hong Kong activists smash their way through Japanese vessels to wave Chinese flags on the Diaoyus.
27/7/12	London Olympic Games opening ceremony.
26/7/12	The National Education programme has caused many doubts.
4/6/12	180,000 people take part in the June 4 candlelight vigil in Victoria Park.
2/5/12	Blind activist Chen Guangcheng seeks protection in US embassy after fleeing house arrest.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people’s opposition to the independence of Taiwan remains high, but has significantly dropped to 58% compared to six months ago, to register a record low since April 1999. Net opposition now stands at 33 percentage points. People’s judgment that ‘one country, two systems’ should be applicable to Taiwan has dropped back significantly to 43% after going up to 49% six months ago, but still giving a net confidence of positive 3 percentage points. People’s confidence in reunification across the strait, however, has remained unchanged over the past six months, now with a net confidence of negative 3 percentage points, while the percentage of those supporting Taiwan rejoining the UN has also not changed much, with a net support of 10 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

September 5, 2012 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: Results of Legislative Council election survey
September 7, 2012 (Friday) 1pm to 2pm: Results of Legislative Council election survey
September 10, 2012 (Monday) 1pm to 2pm: Results of Legislative Council election survey
September 11, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials