HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the Government, as well as the latest PSI figuresBack

Press Release on August 28, 2012

Special Announcements

(1)The “Super DC Election Guessing Game” hosted by the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk) of Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has already been launched, users can now make guesses on the result of the Super DC election due to take place on September 9, until 00:00AM on the election day. The latest situation is that list 807 of Chan Yuen Han leads list 801 of Albert Ho, list 804 of Lau Kong Wah, list 802 of James To, list 805 of Frederick Fung, list 806 of Starry Lee, and list 803 of Kamela Peck, with guestimates of 21%, 19%, 17%, 15%, 13%, 12% and 4% of vote shares respectively.

(2)Besides, the Public Sentiment Index (PSI) released by POP today contains a large amount of reference material. Readers are welcome to click on “PSI Feature Page” Highlight at “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) to read them in detail.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,019 Hong Kong people between 14 and 18 August 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that both the support rating and approval rate of CE CY Leung have dropped to record low since he was elected CE. CE’s support rating now stands at 49.0, approval rate at 36%, disapproval rate at 48%, giving a net popularity of negative 12 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its popularity has also dropped. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 22%, with a dissatisfaction rate at 46%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 24 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger the respondent, the more one disapproves of CY Leung as CE, while those aged between 30 and 49 are most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. As for the PSI, analysis shows that the public’s overall sentiment has significantly worsened over the month past. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,019 successful interviews, not 1,019 x 66.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7%".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
14-18/8/2012	1,019	66.6%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	30/5-6/6/12	19-25/6/12	9-11/7/12	17-20/7/12	2-8/8/12	14-18/8/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,041	1,048	1,000	1,018	1,002	1,019	--
Overall response rate	63.7%	69.6%	69.1%	65.8%	65.9%	66.6%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	54.1	51.3^[9]	53.8^[9]	51.2^[9]	51.6	49.0+/-1.7	-2.6^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	49%	47%	45%	41%^[9]	39%	36+/-3%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	39%	42%	41%	45%^[9]	47%	48+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	10%	5%	4%	-4%^[9]	-8%	-12+/-6%	-4%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	20%	--	25%^[9]	--	22+/-3%	-3%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	52%^[9]	--	42%^[9]	--	46+/-4%	+4%
Net satisfaction rate	--	-32%	--	-17%^[9]	--	-24+/-7%	-7%
Mean value^[8]	--	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=656)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=608)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=537)	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7%” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 568.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 49.0 marks, and 36% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 12 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 22% were satisfied, whereas 46% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.6, meaning in between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive and the satisfaction rate of SARG performance by respondents' age by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 14-18/8/2012		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE^[10]	Support	29+/-7% (56)	35+/-5% (134)	39+/-5% (165)	36+/-3% (355)
	Oppose	63+/-7% (121)	48+/-5% (185)	42+/-5% (174)	48+/-3% (480)
	Don’t know/ Hard to say	8+/-4% (16)	18+/-4% (69)	19+/-4% (80)	16+/-2% (164)
	Total	100% (192)	100% (388)	100% (419)	100% (999)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 14-18/8/2012		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Satisfaction / dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[11]	Satisfaction	15+/-7% (17)	17+/-5% (37)	31%+/-6% (70)	22+/-4% (124)
	Half-half	33+/-9% (39)	20+/-5% (43)	28+/-4% (64)	26+/-4% (146)
	Dissatisfaction	50+/-9% (58)	57+/-7% (125)	35+/-6% (78)	47+/-4% (262)
	Don’t know/ Hard to say	2+/-2% (2)	6+/-3% (13)	6+/-3% (14)	5+/-2% (30)
	Total	100% (116)	100% (218)	100% (227)	100% (562)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

II. PSI analysis

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) ^[12] compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to peoples’ appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to peoples’ appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a variety of opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal. Please refer to our online material for its methodology. Latest PSI, GA & SA figures, per poll and per month, are tabulated as follow:

Date of survey (per poll)	9-11/7/12	17-20/7/12	2-8/8/12	14-18/8/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,000	1,018	1,002	1,019	--
Overall response rate	69.1%	65.8%	65.9%	66.6%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	--
Public Sentiment Index (PSI)	92.3	84.7	86.0	79.7	-6.3
Government Appraisal (GA)	94.8	89.0	90.0	85.1	-4.9
Society Appraisal (SA)	95.2	89.9	90.8	86.4	-4.4

Date of survey (per month)	7/12	8/12	Latest change
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	--
Public Sentiment Index (PSI)	88.5	82.9	-5.6
Government Appraisal (GA)	91.9	87.5	-4.4
Society Appraisal (SA)	92.6	88.6	-4.0

[12] Public Sentiment Index originates from the “now Survey on Public Sentiment Index" in 2011. It was then sponsored by “now news channel”.

Figures show that the latest Public Sentiment Index (PSI) is 79.7, down 6.3 when compared to last survey. The Government Appraisal (GA) and Society Appraisal (SA), the scores are 85.1 and 86.4, down 4.9 and 4.4 from last respectively. As for the monthly change, the latest PSI is 82.9, down 5.6 when compared to last month, the GA is 87.5, down 4.4, the SA is 88.6, down 4.0 when compared to last month.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 17 to 20 July, 2012 while this survey was conducted from 14 to 18 August, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

18/8/12	Diaoyu activists plan to re visit Diaoyu Islands this October to proclaim sovereignty.
14/8/12	Hong Kong People on board a ship destine for the Diaoyu Islands.
6/8/12	Fish farmers demands compensation for the massive plastic pellet spill.
29/7/12	The organizer said that 90,000 people took part in the protest against the introduction of national education curriculum in schools this year.
26/7/12	The National Education programme has caused many doubts.
19/7/12	The results of the first Hong Kong Diploma of Secondary Education exam release.
18/7/12	September's Legislative Council election starts two-week nomination period.
17/7/12	The current term of Legislative Council finishes the final day of meeting.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “The survey shows that both the support rating and approval rate of CE CY Leung have dropped to record low since he was elected CE. CE’s support rating now stands at 49.0, approval rate at 36%, disapproval rate at 48%, giving a net popularity of negative 12 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its popularity has also dropped. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 22%, with a dissatisfaction rate at 46%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 24 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger the respondent, the more one disapproves of CY Leung as CE, while those aged between 30 and 49 are most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. As for the PSI, analysis shows that the public’s overall sentiment has significantly worsened over the month past. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

September 4, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Survey on Taiwan issues

Reference materials on survey on PSI

Online resource：“PSI” methodological notes
Online chart： “PSI” (per month) (1992-2012)
Online chart：“GA” (per month) (1992-2012)
Online chart：“SA” (per month) (1992-2012)
Online table：“PSI”, “GA” and “SA” (1992-2012)