HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the Government, as well as the latest PSI figuresBack

Press Release on July 31, 2012

Special Announcements

(1) The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has uploaded two full sets of video record of the July 1 Rally onto the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk). People can download the videos from the “July 1 Rally Feature page”, and do their own headcount of the Rally. Video clips at higher resolutions are also available for purchase at production cost. Details available at the feature page.

(2) Besides, the Public Sentiment Index (PSI) released by POP today contains a large amount of reference material. Readers are welcome to click on “PSI Feature Page” Highlight at “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) to read them in detail.

(3) As in previous years, POP will conduct rolling surveys on Legislative Council election from tomorrow (August 1) to September 7. If individual media would like to obtain the results of our rolling surveys through sponsorship, please contact us today, so that we can make special arrangements.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,018 Hong Kong people between 17 and 20 July 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that compared to early this month, CE Leung’s support rating has dropped back to 51.2, which is about the same as that registered one month ago. His approval rate continues to drop to 41%, disapproval rate increases to 45%, giving a net popularity of negative 4 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, compared to one month ago before the new government takes office, its popularity has clearly rebounded. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 25%, with a dissatisfaction rate at 42%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 17 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the support of CY Leung as CE decreases by age of the respondents. PSI analysis shows that the overall sentiment of Hong Kong people has improved over the last month, but is still on the negative side. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2]The sample size of this survey is 1,018 successful interviews, not 1,018 x 65.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6%".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
17-20/7/2012	1,018	65.8%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	3-10/5/12	18-24/5/12	30/5-6/6/12	19-25/6/12	9-11/7/12	17-20/7/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,044	1,001	1,041	1,048	1,000	1,018	--
Overall response rate	64.6%	66.8%	63.7%	69.6%	69.1%	65.8%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	56.5^[9]	54.3^[9]	54.1	51.3^[9]	53.8^[9][10]	51.2+/-1.5	-2.6^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	56%^[9]	46%^[9]	49%	47%	45%	41+/-3%	-4%^[9]
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	34%^[9]	41%^[9]	39%	42%	41%	45+/-3%	+4%^[9]
Net approval rate	22%	5%	10%	5%	4%	-4+/-6%	-8%^[9]
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	20%	--	20%	--	25+/-3%	+5%^[9]
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	47%	--	52%^[9]	--	42+/-4%	-10%^[9]
Net satisfaction rate	--	-27%	--	-32%	--	-17+/-6%	+15%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=525)	--	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=656)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=608)	+0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6%” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 661.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[10] Due to an error in the weighting programme, the 54.0 mark carried in the original release was not accurate. We apologize for the error.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 51.2 marks, and 41% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 4 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 25% were satisfied, whereas 42% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.6, meaning in between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 17-20/7/2012		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE^[11]	Support	23+/-6% (45)	43+/-5% (167)	47+/-5% (200)	41+/-3% (411)
	Oppose	63+/-7% (121)	45+/-5% (177)	36+/-5% (153)	45+/-3% (451)
	Don’t know/ Hard to say	13+/-5% (25)	12+/-3% (46)	16+/-4% (70)	14+/-2% (140)
	Total	100% (190)	100% (390)	100% (422)	100% (1,002)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

II. PSI analysis

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) ^[13] compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to peoples’ appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to peoples’ appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a variety of opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal. Please refer to our online material for its methodology. Latest PSI, GA & SA figures in July, per poll and per month, are tabulated as follow:

Date of survey (per poll)	9-11/7/12^[12]	17-20/7/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,000	1,018	--
Overall response rate	69.1%	65.8%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	--
Public Sentiment Index (PSI)	92.3	84.7	-7.5
Government Appraisal (GA)	94.8	89.0	-5.8
Society Appraisal (SA)	95.2	89.9	-5.3

Date of survey（per month）	4/12	5/12	6/12	7/12	Latest change
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	--
Public Sentiment Index (PSI)	80.4	78.4	74.7	88.5	+13.8
Government Appraisal (GA)	82.4	80.6	76.5	91.9	+15.3
Society Appraisal (SA)	90.0	88.9	87.5	92.6	+5.1

[12] Due to an error in the weighting programme, the figures in the last release need to be slightly adjusted.

[13] Public Sentiment Index originates from the “now Survey on Public Sentiment Index" in 2011. It was then sponsored by “now news channel”.

Figures show that the latest Public Sentiment Index (PSI) is 84.7, down 7.5 when compared to last survey. The Government Appraisal (GA) and Society Appraisal (SA), the scores are 89.0 and 89.9, down 5.8 and 5.3 from last respectively. As for the monthly change, the lastest PSI is 88.5, up 13.8 when compared to last month, the GA is 91.9, up 15.3, the SA is 92.6, up 5.1 when compared to last month.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 19 to 25 June, 2012 while this survey was conducted from 17 to 20 July, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

16/7/12	Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying gives out HK$7.35 billion of sweeteners in his first question-and-answer session at the Legislative Council.
12/7/12	Secretary for Development Mak Chai-kwong resigned after 12 days in the job and is arrested by the ICAC.
8/7/12	CE encounters protesters' clash with the police as he makes visit to Wong Tai Sin district.
2/7/12	New Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying's plan to meet the public backfires as activists storm in Tuen Mun.
1/7/12	Media continues to report President of the People's Republic of China Hu Jin-tao advised the people of Hong Kong to carry forward their fine qualities of solidarity, enterprise and creativity.
1/7/12	Many newspapers on the following day report the July 1 demonstration.
27/6/12	The Beijing Government suggests six new policies aimed at boosting economic ties to mark the 15th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China.
25/6/12	The Democratic Party plans to file an election petition to High Court after accusing Chief Executive-elect Leung Chun-ying of making false statements about having no illegal structures at his home.
22/6/12	Chief Executive-elect Leung Chun-ying apologizes for the six illegal structures at his home.
21/6/12	Legislators veto to discuss in priority the motion to reorganize the government secretariat.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "The survey shows that compared to early this month, CE Leung’s support rating has dropped back to 51.2, which is about the same as that registered one month ago. His approval rate continues to drop to 41%, disapproval rate increases to 45%, giving a net popularity of negative 4 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, compared to one month ago before the new government takes office, its popularity has clearly rebounded. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 25%, with a dissatisfaction rate at 42%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 17 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the support of CY Leung as CE decreases by age of the respondents. PSI analysis shows that the overall sentiment of Hong Kong people has improved over the last month, but is still on the negative side. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

August 7, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People's most familiar political figures

Reference materials on survey on PSI

Online resource：“PSI” methodological notes
Online chart： PSI (per month) (1992-2012)
Online chart：GA (per month) (1992-2012)
Online chart：SA (per month) (1992-2012)
Online table：PSI, GA and SA (1992-2012)