HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials, as well as the latest PSI figuresBack

Press Release on July 17, 2012 (Original version)

Special Announcements

(1) The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has last week uploaded two full sets of video record of the July 1 Rally onto the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk). People can download the videos from the “July 1 Rally Feature page”, and do their own headcount of the Rally. Video clips at higher resolutions are also available for purchase at production cost. Details available at the feature page.

(2) Besides, the Public Sentiment Index (PSI) released by POP today contains a large amount of reference material. Readers are welcome to click on “PSI Feature Page” Highlight at “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) to read them in detail.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong people between July 9 to 11, 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that while the support rating of CE CY Leung has significantly rebounded by 2.7 marks to 54.0 marks, his approval and disapproval rates have not changed much. They now stand at 45% and 41% respectively, giving a net popularity of positive 4 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 64.3 marks, her approval rate is 61%, disapproval rate 8%, giving a net popularity of positive 53 percentage points. Latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 56.5 marks, approval rate 49%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net approval rate of positive 32 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 49.2 marks, approval rate 25%, disapproval rate 12%, and his net popularity stands at positive 13 percentage points. Carrie Lam is the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, 5 of the 12 are re-appointed Directors. They include Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing. Compared to one month ago, their approval rates have all gone up substantively. Among all the Directors, only Secretary for Development Mak Chai-kwong registers negative popularity, at negative 3 percentage points, but the survey was conducted before he announced his resignation on July 12. Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man is the most popular Director. According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Matthew Cheung, Carrie Lam and Lai Tung-kwok now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Ceajer Chan, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, CY Leung, Raymond Tam, Tsang Tak-sing and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Wong Kam-sing, Gregory So, Rimsky Yuen, Paul Tang and Mak Chai-kwong can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. No one falls into the category of “depressing” nor “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net approval rates needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 69%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,000 successful interviews, not 1,000 x 69.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is+/-7 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net approval rates needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
9-11/7/2012	1,000	69.1%	+/-4%

[6]Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
1,300	+/- 2.8 %	1,350	+/- 2.7 %
1,200	+/- 2.9 %	1,250	+/- 2.8 %
1,100	+/- 3.0 %	1,150	+/- 3.0 %
1,000	+/- 3.2 %	1,050	+/- 3.1 %
900	+/- 3.3 %	950	+/- 3.2 %
800	+/- 3.5 %	850	+/- 3.4 %
700	+/- 3.8 %	750	+/- 3.7 %
600	+/- 4.1 %	650	+/- 3.9 %
500	+/- 4.5 %	550	+/- 4.3 %
400	+/- 5.0 %	450	+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	17-23/4/12	3-10/5/12	18-24/5/12	30/5-6/6/12	19-25/6/12	9-11/7/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,034	1,044	1,001	1,041	1,048	1,000	--
Overall response rate	65.0%	64.6%	66.8%	63.7%	69.6%	69.1%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[8]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	54.0^[9]	56.5^[9]	54.3^[9]	54.1	51.3^[9]	54.0+/-1.6	+2.7^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	48%	56%^[9]	46%^[9]	49%	47%	45+/-3%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	39%^[9]	34%^[9]	41%^[9]	39%	42%	41+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	9%	22%	5%	10%	5%	4+/-6%	-1%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	2-7/3/12	2-10/4/12	3-10/5/12	30/5-6/6/12	9-11/7/12	Latest change ^[10]
Sample base^[10]	574-583	523-696	515-538	521-566	528-572	--
Overall response rate	66.6%	60.0%	64.6%	63.7%	69.1%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[11]	--
Ratings of CS Carrie Lam	--	--	--	--	64.3+/-1.9	--
Vote of confidence in CS Carrie Lam	--	--	--	--	61+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in CS Carrie Lam	--	--	--	--	8+/-2%	--
Net approval rate	--	--	--	--	53+/-6%	--
Ratings of FS John Tsang	50.9	49.8	52.7^[12]	52.9	56.5+/-1.6	+3.6^[12]
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang	41%^[12]	36%^[12]	43%^[12]	44%	49+/-4%	+5%^[12]
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang	24%	26%	19%^[12]	16%	16+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	17%	10%	24%	28%	32+/-6%	+5%
Ratings of SJ Rimsky Yuen	--	--	--	--	49.2+/-2.1	--
Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen	--	--	--	--	25+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen	--	--	--	--	12+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	--	--	--	--	13+/-5%	--

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:

Date of survey	3-10/5/12		30/5-6/6/12		9-11/7/12		Latest change
Sample base ^[13]	502-551		514-573		527-607		--
Overall response rate	64.6%		63.7%		69.1%		--
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer	Base	%	Base	%	Base	% & error ^[14]	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man	--	--	--	--	527	70+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man	--	--	--	--	527	5+/-2%	--
Net approval rate	--	--	--	--	--	65+/-5%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	520	52%	532	52%	531	64+/-4%	+12%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	520	13%	532	12%	531	10+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	--	39%	--	40%	--	54+/-6%	+14%^[15]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok	--	--	--	--	541	56+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok	--	--	--	--	541	10+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	--	--	--	--	--	45+/-6%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	522	37%	537	31%^[15]	583	49+/-4%	+18%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	522	12%	537	12%	583	8+/-2%	-4%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	25%	--	19%	--	41+/-5%	+22%^[15]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung	--	--	--	--	538	46+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung	--	--	--	--	538	11+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	--	--	--	--	--	36+/-6%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	--	--	--	--	562	37+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	--	--	--	--	562	9+/-2%	--
Net approval rate	--	--	--	--	--	28+/-5%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam	550	34%	545	29%^[15]	558	38+/-4%	+9%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam	550	12%	545	13%	558	15+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	22%	--	16%	--	23+/-6%	+8%^[15]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	523	25%	573	18%^[15]	550	34+/-4%	+16%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	523	15%	573	17%	550	12+/-3%	-6%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	10%	--	1%	--	22+/-5%	+22%^[15]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang	--	--	--	--	540	24+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang	--	--	--	--	540	7+/-2%	--
Net approval rate	--	--	--	--	--	17+/-5%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng	--	--	--	--	607	33+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Eddie Ng	--	--	--	--	607	20+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	--	--	--	--	--	13+/-6%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	502	29%	530	26%	558	37+/-4%	+11%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	502	36%	530	33%	558	31+/-4%	-2%
Net approval rate	--	-7%	--	-7%	--	5+/-7%	+13%^[15]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Mak Chai-kwong	--	--	--	--	589	22+/-3%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Mak Chai-kwong	--	--	--	--	589	25+/-4%	--
Net approval rate	--	--	--	--	--	-3+/-6%	--

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE CY Leung scored 54.0 marks, and 45% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is positive 4 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Carrie Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 64.3, 56.5 and 49.2 marks, and 61%, 49% and 25% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 53, 32 and 13 percentage points respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, attaining positive 65 percentage points. The 2nd to 4th places belonged to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan with net approval rates positive 54, 45 and 41 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang, Secretary for Education Eddie Ng, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, and Secretary for Development Mak Chai-kwong ranked 5th to 12th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 36, positive 28, positive 23, positive 22, positive 17, positive 13, positive 5 percentage points and negative 3 percentage points. In other words, Ko Wing-man and Matthew Cheung scored net approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

II. PSI analysis

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) ^[16] compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to peoples’ appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to peoples’ appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a variety of opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal. Please refer to our online material for its methodology. Monthly PSI, GA & SA as well as the latest figures are tabulated as follow:

Date of survey（per month）	4/12	5/12	6/12	7/12	Latest change
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	--
Public Sentiment Index (PSI)	80.4	78.4	74.7	92.7^[17]	+18.0
Government Appraisal (GA)	82.4	80.6	76.5	95.1^[17]	+18.6
Society Appraisal (SA)	90.0	88.9	87.5	95.5^[17]	+8.0

[16] Public Sentiment Index originates from the “now Survey on Public Sentiment Index" in 2011. It was then sponsored by “now news channel”.
[17] Preliminary figures for this month, the final figures will be announced when all the related surveys within this month are completed.

Figures show that the latest Public Sentiment Index (PSI) is 92.7, up 18.0 when compared to that of last month. As for the Government Appraisal (GA) and Society Appraisal (SA), the scores are 95.1 and 95.5, up 18.6 and 8.0 respectively.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the latest survey of CE and principal officials covered in this press release, some items were previously surveyed from May 30 to June 6, 2012 while this survey was conducted from July 9 to 11, 2012. Significant events which happened during this period are listed below, after counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis, and listing those covered by at least 25% of all local newspapers. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impact on different polling figures, including the PSI.

8/7/12	CE encounters protesters' clash with the police as he makes visit to Wong Tai Sin district.
2/7/12	New Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying's plan to meet the public backfires as activists storm in Tuen Mun.
1/7/12	Media continues to report President of the People's Republic of China Hu Jin-tao advised the people of Hong Kong to carry forward their fine qualities of solidarity, enterprise and creativity.
1/7/12	Many newspapers on the following day report the July 1 demonstration.
30/6/12	President of the People's Republic of China Hu Jin-tao advises the people of Hong Kong to carry forward their fine qualities of solidarity, enterprise and creativity.
23/6/12	Chief Executive-elect Leung Chun-ying is asked to give a full explanation about the illegal structures at his home.
22/6/12	Chief Executive-elect Leung Chun-ying apologizes for the six illegal structures at his home.
21/6/12	Legislators veto to discuss in priority the motion to reorganize the government secretariat.
10/6/12	25,000 protestors demand Li Wangyang probe.
4/6/12	180,000 people take part in the June 4 candlelight vigil in Victoria Park.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey conducted after the new cabinet of CY Leung has taken office shows that while the support rating of CE CY Leung has significantly rebounded by 2.7 marks to 54.0 marks, his approval and disapproval rates have not changed much. They now stand at 45% and 41% respectively, giving a net popularity of positive 4 percentage points.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Carrie Lam is 64.3 marks, her approval rate is 61%, disapproval rate 8%, giving a net popularity of positive 53 percentage points. Latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 56.5 marks, approval rate 49%, disapproval rate 16%, giving a net approval rate of positive 32 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 49.2 marks, approval rate 25%, disapproval rate 12%, and his net popularity stands at positive 13 percentage points. Carrie Lam is the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, 5 of the 12 are re-appointed Directors. They include Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing. Compared to one month ago, their approval rates have all gone up substantively. Among all the Directors, only Secretary for Development Mak Chai-kwong registers negative popularity, at negative 3 percentage points, but the survey was conducted before he announced his resignation on July 12. Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man is the most popular Director.

According to POP’s standard, Ko Wing-man falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Matthew Cheung, Carrie Lam and Lai Tung-kwok now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of Ceajer Chan, John Tsang, Anthony Cheung, CY Leung, Raymond Tam, Tsang Tak-sing and Eddie Ng can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Wong Kam-sing, Gregory So, Rimsky Yuen, Paul Tang and Mak Chai-kwong can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. No one falls into the category of “depressing” nor “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE and the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man (70%)

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (64%); CS Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (61%); Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok (56%)

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung(49%)^[18]; FS John Tsang Chun-wah (49%)^[18]; Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung (46%); CE Leung Chun-ying (45%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (38%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (37%); Secretary for Education Eddie Ng Hak-kim (33%)

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (37%, 46%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (34%, 46%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (25%, 36%); Secretary for the Civil Service Paul Tang Kwok-wai (24%, 31%); Secretary for Development Mak Chai-kwong (22%, 47%)

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

[18] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan was 49.1%, while that of FS John Tsang was 48.8%.

Future Release (Tentative)

July 24, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Rating of Top Ten Legislative Councillors

Reference materials on survey on PSI

Online resource: “PSI” methodological notes
Online chart: PSI (per month) (1992-2012)
Online chart: GA (per month) (1992-2012)
Online chart: SA (per month) (1992-2012)
Online table: PSI, GA and SA (1992-2012)