HKU POP releases the survey results on the suitability of Designate Principal OfficialsBack

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| Detailed Findings (The suitability of Principal Officials designates) |

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 536 Hong Kong people from June 28 to 29, 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that in terms of average suitability and excluding those soon to be appointed, the new cabinet led by CY Leung is the lowest across our three surveys. The figures are 58% in 2002, 66% in 2007, and 57% this time. This shows that the new cabinet is having a more difficult start than before, in terms of popularity. In terms of net suitability, the five officials with highest popularity are Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Chief Secretary for Administration Carrie Lam and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing. All designate principal officials have net suitability values on the positive side, but that of Secretary for Justice Rimsky Yuen and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing have only single digits. Of course, these are only initial appraisal by the people. Time will tell whether they are right or wrong, and how they would further develop. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 68%.

The first Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa introduced an accountability system of Principal Officials in 2002 and formulated 3 Departments as well as 11 Bureaux. On June 24, 2002, he announced the first term of Principal Officials under the accountability system. Shortly after the list announced, POP immediately started a survey to gauge people’s opinion towards the suitability of each Principal Official designates. The wordings used were, “Chief Executive has appointed XXX as YYYYY. Do you think XXX is an ideal candidate?” Survey findings were released on June 27, 2002. In June 2007, before the new government began, POP conducted a similar survey on the list of new term of Principal Officials, namely 3 Secretaries of Departments and 12 Directors of Bureaux. The survey findings were released on July 5, 2007. Please visit "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) for details. On June 28, 2012, CE elect CY Leung announced the list of new term of Principal Officials, including 3 Secretaries of Departments and 12 Directors of Bureaux. POP immediately began an opinion survey by using the same mean to gauge people’s view about the appropriateness of the Principal Official designates, and compared the figures with 2002 and 2007.

POP today releases on schedule via the HKU POP SITE the latest survey results of the suitability of Designate Principal Officials. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the survey series:

The table below reveals the appropriateness of the three Secretaries of Departments or Secretaries of Departments elect in 2002, 2007 and 2012 respectively, in the official order:

[7] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures.
[8] Figures are estimated from the sub-sample after deducing those who claimed “not familiar with XXX”, so direct comparison should not be made.
[9] 「“Net Value” is the percentage of “appropriate” minus “inappropriate”.

Latest survey revealed that 71% of the respondents regarded Carrie Lam as an appropriate candidate for Chief Secretary for Administration, 17% disagreed, giving a net suitability of positive 54 percentage points. Meanwhile, 61% of the respondents considered John Tsang as Financial Secretary appropriate while 30% disagreed, giving a net suitability of positive 31 percentage points. As for Secretary for Justice, 38% believed Rimsky Yuen was suitable for the post and 31% disagreed, giving a net suitability of positive 7 percentage points. Overall speaking, the average suitability rate for the three positions is 57%.

Suitability of the Directors of Bureaux or Directors of Bureaux elect in 2002, 2007 and 2012 are tabulated as follows, in descending order of net values:

[7] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures.
[8] Figures are estimated from the sub-sample after deducing those who claimed “not familiar with XXX”, so direct comparison should not be made.
[9] “Net Value” is the percentage of “appropriate” minus “inappropriate”.
[10] In 1 decimal place, the net suitability value of Ceajer Chan as Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury is 32.0% whereas that of Anthony Cheung as Secretary for Transport and Housing is 31.5%. Thus, Ceajer Chan ranks 7th and Anthony Cheung ranks 8th.

Regarding Directors of the 12 Bureaux, 79% of the respondents thought Ko Wing-man’s appointment as Secretary for Food and Health fit while 8% considered it unfit, giving a net suitability of positive 71 percentage points. 72% of the respondents considered the appointment of Lai Tung-kwok as Secretary for Security appropriate while 12% held the opposite view, giving a net suitability of positive 60 percentage points. 72% agreed that Matthew Cheung was appropriate Secretary for Labour and Welfare while 14% did not share the view, giving a net suitability of positive 58 percentage points. 58% considered the appointment of Wong Kam-sing as Secretary for the Environment suitable while 15% thought the opposite, giving a net suitability of positive 43 percentage points. Concerning Raymond Tam commencing as Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs, 57% agreed that he was suitable while 19% disagreed, giving a net suitability of positive 38 percentage points. 54% of the respondents agreed that Paul Tang was suitable as Secretary for the Civil Service while 18% disagreed, giving a net suitability of positive 36 percentage points. Concerning Ceajer Chan’s appointment as Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, 55% of the respondents thought it was suitable but 23% did not share the same view, giving a net suitability of positive 32 percentage points. On the appointment of Anthony Cheung as Secretary for Transport and Housing, 54% of the respondents thought it was fit while 22% did not think so, giving a net suitability of positive 32 percentage points. On the other hand, on the appointment of Mak Chai-kwong as Secretary for Development, 44% thought it was appropriate while 20% did not think so, giving a net suitability of positive 24 percentage points. On the suitability of Gregory So as Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development, 48% regarded him as an appropriate candidate while 29% did not, giving a net suitability of positive 19 percentage points. While 42% of the respondents regarded Eddie Ng as appropriate Secretary for Education, 27% did not share the view, giving a net suitability of positive 15 percentage points. Finally, on Tsang Tak-sing’s commencement as Secretary for Home Affairs, 44% thought it was appropriate while 41% opposed, giving a net suitability of positive 3 percentage points. Overall speaking, the average suitability rate for the twelve positions is 57%.

With respect to the whole cabinet, 57% considered the 15 designate Principal Officials appropriate candidates for their positions, while 22% thought the opposite and 22% did not know. The average recognition rate was 72%. As for the survey in 2007, 66% considered the 15 designate Principal Officials appropriate candidates for their positions, while 12% thought the opposite and 23% did not know. The average recognition rate was 78%. As far as the survey in 2002, 58% considered the 14 designate Principal Officials appropriate candidates for their positions, while 19% thought the opposite and 23% did not know. The average recognition rate was 74%.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “In terms of average suitability and excluding those soon to be appointed, the new cabinet led by CY Leung is the lowest across our three surveys. The figures are 58% in 2002, 66% in 2007, and 57% this time. This shows that the new cabinet is having a more difficult start than before, in terms of popularity. In terms of net suitability, the five officials with highest popularity are Secretary for Food and Health Ko Wing-man, Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Chief Secretary for Administration Carrie Lam and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing. All principal officials have net suitability values on the positive side, but that of Secretary for Justice Rimsky Yuen and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing have only single digits. Of course, these are only initial appraisal by the people. Time will tell whether they are right or wrong, and how they would further develop.”

| Abstract| Background | Latest Figures | Commentary | Future Release | 
| Detailed Findings (The suitability of Principal Officials designates) |