HKU POP releases HKSAR Anniversary survey and forecasts July 1 rally study arrangementsBack
| Press Release on June 29, 2012 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Special Announcement | Abstract of Anniversary Survey | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | Commentary |Future Releases | | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special Announcement (1) The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has recently released a “survey on Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity” and some Public Sentiment Index (PSI) analyses, which include a large amount of reference material, readers are welcome to click on “What’s New” at “HKU POP SITE” (website: http://hkupop.pori.hk) to read them in detail.
(2) POP will conduct a headcount of July 1 Rally participants on the day after tomorrow, and releases its preliminary results via the “HKU POP SITE” in the evening, around 2 to 4 hours after the rally.
(3) The list of new Principal Officials of the SAR government was announced yesterday. Thus, POP has immediately started a survey to gauge their suitability as designate Principal Officials, and the result will be released on July 5. Kindly take note. |
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Abstract of Anniversary Survey POP interviewed 1,048 Hong Kong people between 19 and 25 June, 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. As the 15th Handover Anniversary draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a Chinese national citizen has dropped 4 percentage points to 37%, which is a record low since 2001, probably due to recent incidents of Bo Xilai, Chen Guangcheng, and Li Wangyang. Regarding people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s Hong Kong policies, this year’s positive figure has rebound by 4 percentage points after it plunged 19 percentage-points last year, giving a net appraisal of positive 14 percentage points. Indepth analyses show that the younger the respondent, the less proud one feels of becoming a Chinese national citizen, and also more negative about the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the survey is 70%.
Points to note：
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] Since the figures in this release come from the annual survey conducted by HKUPOP in 2012, these yearly figures are good for general reviews of Hong Kong’s development. [3] The sample size of this survey is 1,048 successful interviews, not 1,048 x 69.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [4] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level”. [5] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures. [6] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via the POP SITE the latest survey results related to the handover anniversary. The two questions are “people’s feeling of becoming a national citizen of China” and “people’s evaluation of the policy of Central Government on Hong Kong”. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
[7] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
The survey results are tabulated below:
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. [10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Results of the latest anniversary survey revealed that, 37% of the respondents were proud of becoming a national citizen of China after the handover, while 58% said they did not have any special feeling. As for the policy of the Central Government on Hong Kong after the handover, 38% of the respondents evaluated it positively, whereas 24% gave negative evaluations. The mean score is 3.1 marks, meaning close to “half-half”. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Indepth Analysis In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondent being proud of becoming a national citizen of China and Central Government’s policy on Hong Kong by age:
[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level
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Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
Since August 2007, POP would normally include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. Yet, this press release is an exception. It is because for the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 17 to 22, 2011 while this survey was conducted from June 19 to 25, 2012. The two surveys were one year apart, and any of the significant events inside “Opinion Daily” in between might have affected people’s comments for the year past. Thus, this press release would not further select the events from “Opinion Daily”, but readers can make their own judgment based on the detailed records in the respective online section. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Commentary Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “As the 15th Handover Anniversary draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a Chinese national citizen has dropped 4 percentage points to 37%, which is a record low since 2001, probably due to recent incidents of Bo Xilai, Chen Guangcheng, and Li Wangyang. Regarding people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s Hong Kong policies, this year’s positive figure has rebounded significantly by 4 percentage points after it plunged 19 percentage-points last year, giving a net appraisal of positive 14 percentage points. Indepth analyses show that the younger the respondent, the less proud one feels of becoming a Chinese national citizen, and also more negative about the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong.” | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Future Releases
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| Special Announcement | Abstract of Anniversary Survey | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | Commentary |Future Releases | | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
