HKU POP releases society appraisal and PSI figuresBack

Press Release on June 28, 2012

Special Announcement

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases a Public Sentiment Index (PSI) and a large amount of related reference material, readers are welcome to click on “What’s New” at “HKU POP SITE” (website: http://hkupop.pori.hk) to read them in detail.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,048 Hong Kong people from June 19 to 25, 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that using an one-in-three choices method, livelihood issues are people’s most concerned issues followed by economic and then political issues. The order is the same using absolute ratings of importance, but the ratings for livelihood and economic issues are quite close to each other. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current economic, political and livelihood conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 20, negative 38 and negative 40 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate over political condition has increased by 10 percentage points which has gone back to the level registered at late October 2011. As for our newly released PSI figures (0-200), July 2003 was obviously the poorest time after Hong Kong’s handover, with a score of 63.8 which can be considered as occurring only once in 20 years. Our PSI now stands at 74.7, and can be considered as a low point occurring only once in 8 years. Turning to the high points, June 2006 was the best time after Hong Kong’s handover, with a score of 132.8, which can be considered as a happy time occurring only once in 20 years. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of our PSI figures using records shown in the ‘Opinion Daily’ of our ‘POP Site’. The maximum sampling error of the survey mentioned is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 70%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,048 successful interviews, not 1,048 x 69.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.19 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

I. People's Appraisal of Society's Conditions

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[6]
19-25/6/2012	1,048	69.6%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	18-22/6/10	13-16/12/10	27/6-5/7/11	28-29/12/11	19-25/6/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,009	1,013	1,011	509	1,048^[7]	--
Overall response rate	66.7%	67.4%	65.7%	62.8%	69.6%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[9]	--
Most concerned with livelihood problems^[8]	54%^[10]	52%	70%^[10]	64%^[10]	61+/-4%	-3%
Most concerned with economic problems	31%^[10]	36%^[10]	20%^[10]	30%^[10]	26+/-4%	-4%
Most concerned with political problems	12%	9%^[10]	7%	4%^[10]	10+/-3%	+6%^[10]
Rating on concern for livelihood problems^[8]	7.38^[10]	7.48	7.38	--	7.13+/-0.17	-0.25^[10]
Rating on concern for economic problems	7.05^[10]	7.25^[10]	7.16	--	7.07+/-0.17	-0.09
Rating on concern for political problems	5.90^[10]	5.86	5.71 ^[10]	--	5.92+/-0.19	+0.21^[10]

Date of survey^[12]	26/9-3/10/11	25/10-3/11/11	21-28/11/11	19-29/12/11	19-25/6/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,000	1,009	1,001	1,027	1,048^[7]	--
Overall response rate	66.3%	66.9%	70.6%	62.9%	69.6%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[9]	--
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate^[11]	28%^[10]	32%	34%	31%	24+/-4%	-7%^[10]
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	44%^[10]	42%	38%^[10]	42%^[10]	44+/-4%	+2%
Mean value^[11]	2.7+/-0.1^[10] (Base=982)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=998)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=984)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,015)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=498)	-0.1
Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate^[8] ^[11]	20%^[10]	22%	27%^[10]	19%^[10]	19+/-3%	--
Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[8] ^[11]	52%^[10]	53%	44%^[10]	54%^[10]	59+/-4%	+5%^[10]
Mean value^[11]	2.5+/-0.1^[10] (Base=979)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=989)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=964)	2.5+/-0.1^[10] (Base=1,002)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=500)	-0.1
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate^[11]	18%^[10]	19%	26%^[10]	24%	17+/-3%	-7%^[10]
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	55%^[10]	55%	45%^[10]	45%	55+/-4%	+10%^[10]
Mean value^[11]	2.4+/-0.1^[10] (Base=956)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=971)	2.7+/-0.1^[10] (Base=936)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=982)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=490)	-0.3^[10]

[7]Since 2006, this series of survey conducted in every 6 months, the sample size of this survey is 501-532.

[8] The wordings used before the June 2010 survey were “social problems” and “social condition”. We take them to mean the same as “livelihood problems” and “livelihood condition” in the survey context.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.19 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Some questions in this part were sponsored by “now news channel” in 2011 and the last survey results have been announced in the programme “News Magazine” and in the “now Survey on Public Sentiment Index" segment on 9 Jan 2012.

Latest survey showed that 61% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems, 26% with economic problems, while 10% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems were 7.13, 7.07 and 5.92 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction rates with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions were 24%, 19% and 17% respectively. The mean score of the economic, livelihood and political conditions are 2.7, 2.4 and 2.4, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general.

II. PSI Analysis

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) ^[13] compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to peoples’ appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to peoples’ appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a variety of opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal. Please refer to our online material for its methodology. Selected analyses of PSI over the past 20 years are tabulated as follow:

[13] Public Sentiment Index originates from the “now Survey on Public Sentiment Index" in 2011. It was then sponsored by “now news channel”.

Last Governor Chris Patten	Time	Government Appraisal	Society Appraisal	Public Sentiment Index
Come to office	Jul1992	112.4	108.7	113.2
Highest PSI during office	Oct1992	119.9	113.4	121.5
Lowest PSI during office	Aug1995	87.6	82.8	79.1
Leave office	Jun1997	110.4	122.8	121.4

First CE Tung Chee-Hwa	Time	Government Appraisal	Society Appraisal	Public Sentiment Index
Come to office	Jul1997	118.8	112.7	120.3
Highest PSI during office	Sep1997	126.0	117.2	128.1
Low point during the Asian financial crisis	Aug1998	92.0	95.2	90.4
Being re-elected	Jul2002	93.1	96.7	92.2
Low point during SARS	Apr2003	70.9	82.9	67.8
Lowest PSI during office	Jul2003	67.2	80.6	63.8
Leave office	Mar2005	90.8	95.3	89.6

Current CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen	Time	Government Appraisal	Society Appraisal	Public Sentiment Index
Come to office	Jun2005	123.9	103.0	117.2
Highest PSI during office	Jun2006	125.9	124.2	132.8
Being re-elected	Jul2007	125.1	116.6	127.1
Low point during financial tsunami	Oct2008	98.6	100.1	98.1
Lowest PSI during office	Jun2012	76.5	87.5	74.7
Leave office	Jun2012	76.5	87.5	74.7

Figures show that when the last Governor of Hong Kong Chris Patten came to office, PSI was 113.2, it peaked at 121.5 during his term of office, and troughed at 79.1. It was 121.4 when he left office.

As for Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa, PSI was 120.3 in July 1997 when he came to office, it peaked at 128.1, then dropped to 90.4 when during the Asian financial crisis. Tung was re-elected in July 2002 when PSI was 92.2, it dropped to 67.8 during the SARS period, and troughed at 63.8 in July 2003. It was 89.6 when Tung left office.

As for the current Chief Executive Donald Tsang, PSI was 117.2 in June 2005 when he came to office, it peaked at 132.8. Tsang was re-elected in July 2007 when PSI was 127.1, dropped to 98.1 during the financial tsunami. Now in June 2012 when he is about to leave office, PSI stands at 74.7, which is the lowest score registered during his entire term of office.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “According to our latest survey, using an one-in-three choices method, livelihood issues are people’s most concerned issues followed by economic and then political issues. The order is the same using absolute ratings of importance, but the ratings for livelihood and economic issues are quite close to each other. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current economic, political and livelihood conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 20, negative 38 and negative 40 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate over political condition has increased by 10 percentage points which has gone back to the level registered at late October 2011. As for our newly released PSI figures (0-200), July 2003 was obviously the poorest time after Hong Kong’s handover, with a score of 63.8 which can be considered as occurring only once in 20 years. Our PSI now stands at 74.7, and can be considered as a low point occurring only once in 8 years. Turning to the high points, June 2006 was the best time after Hong Kong’s handover, with a score of 132.8, which can be considered as a happy time occurring only once in 20 years. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of our PSI figures using records shown in the ‘Opinion Daily’ of our ‘POP Site’.”

Future Releases

June 29, 2012 (Friday) 1pm to 2pm: HKSAR anniversary survey
July 3, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of disciplinary forces
July 10, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 political groups

Reference materials on survey on PSI

Online resource: “PSI” methodological notes (Chinese pdf only)
Online chart: PSI (1992-2012)
Online table: PSI (1992-2012)