HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, CE-elect CY Leung the HKSAR Government 返回

Press Release on June 27, 2012

Special Announcement

(1) The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will tomorrow release a Public Sentiment Index (PSI) which covers 20 years of survey findings, as a highlight of our "HKSAR 15th Anniversary" survey series. Other releases of the series include:

June 28, 2012 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: People's appraisal of society's conditions
June 29, 2012 (Friday) 1pm to 2pm: HKSAR anniversary survey
July 3, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of disciplinary forces
July 10, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 political groups

(2) Yesterday’s release concerning the “survey on Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity” includes a large amount of reference material, readers should click on the “What’s New” at “HKU POP SITE” (website: http://hkupop.pori.hk) and read in detail, in order to understand the background and controversy related to this survey series.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,048 Hong Kong people between 19 and 25 June 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the latest support rating of CE Donald Tsang is 40.1 marks, meaning a rebound of 1.6 marks compared to the last survey. His latest approval rate stands at 15%, disapproval rate at 76%, giving a net popularity of negative 61 percentage points. Compared to the last Governor Chris Patten and former CE Tung Chee-hwa, Donald Tsang has the lowest popularity figures before his departure. Tsang’s popularity flow is a typical “high start low end” pattern, while Patten’s flow is an “ups and downs with a level end” pattern, and Tung’s flow shows a “middle down level off” pattern. As for CE-elect CY Leung, his latest support rating is at a new low of 51.3 marks, down significantly by 2.8 marks. His approval rate drops to 47%, disapproval rate rises to 42%, meaning that his net popularity has narrowed to positive 5 percentage points, probably due to the scandal of illegal structures at his Peak residence. Since the incident occurred during our survey period, our team conducted a day-to-day analysis of his support rating and approval rate by the survey dates, and found that as the scandal develops, CY Leung’s popularity drops constantly. As for the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its satisfaction rate has remained unchanged while dissatisfaction rate goes up by 5 percentage points to 52%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 32 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, only the relation with the Central Government among five registers a positive value, at positive 14 percentage points. The remaining four items all register negative net values: protection of human rights and freedom at negative 2 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at negative 18 percentage points, developing democracy at negative 21 percentage points, and improving people’s livelihood at negative 48 percentage points with a dissatisfaction rate of 60%, rendering it an obvious area for immediate improvement. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is between +/-2 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 70%.

Points to note：
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,048 successful interviews, not 1,048 x 69.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.。
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is between +/-2 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4]When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, CE-elect CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
19-25/6/2012	1,048	69.6%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, CE-elect CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	2-10/4/12	17-23/4/12	3-10/5/12	18-24/5/12	30/5-6/6/12	19-25/6/12	Latest Change
Sample base	1,006	1,034	1,044	1,001	1,041	1,048	--
Overall response rate	60.0%	65.0%	64.6%	66.8%	63.7%	69.6%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	44.6	44.9	42.9^[9]	43.1	38.5^[9]	40.1+/-1.4	+1.6^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	23%	20%	20%	18%	15%^[9]	15+/-2%	--
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	70%	72%	73%	74%	78%^[9]	76+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	-47%	-52%	-53%	-56%	-63%	-61%	+2%
Support Rating of CE-elect CY Leung	52.2	54.0^[9]	56.5^[9]	54.3^[9]	54.1	51.3+/-1.3	-2.8^[9]
Support CY Leung as CE	46%^[9]	48%	56%^[9]	46%^[9]	49%	47+/-3%	-2%
Oppose CY Leung as CE	45%^[9]	39%^[9]	34%^[9]	41%^[9]	39%	42+/-3%	+3%
Net approval rate	+1%	+9%	+22%	+5%	+10%	+5%	-5%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	22%^[9]	--	20+/-4%	--	20+/-3%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	48%^[9]	--	47+/-4%	--	52+/-4%	+5%^[9]
Net satisfaction rate	--	-26%	--	-27%	--	-32%	-5%
Mean value^[8]	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=532)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=525)	--	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=656)	-0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 667.

[9]Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 40.1 marks, and 15% supported him as the Chief Executive, his net approval rate is negative 61%. CE-elect CY Leung scored 51.3 marks, and 47% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is positive 5%. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 20% were satisfied, whereas 52% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.5, meaning in between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied”.

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	23-29/6/11	13-20/9/11	14-28/12/11	16-21/3/12	19-25/6/12	Latest Change^[13]
Sample base^[13]	541-626	514-635	504-529	552-681	512-543	--
Overall response rate	68.7%	65.5%	65.9%	62.8%	69.6%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding]	Finding	Finding & error^[10]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[11]	39%^[12]	39%	46%^[12]	44%	41+/-4%	-3%
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	25%^[12]	28%	26%	24%	27+/-4%	+3%
Net satisfaction rate	+14%	+11%	+20%	+20%	+14%	-6%
Mean value^[11]	3.1+/-0.1^[12] (Base=524)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base =580)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base =504)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base =522)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base =477)	-0.1
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[11]	31%^[12]	27%	32%^[12]	41%^[12]	35+/-4%	-6%^[12]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	39%^[12]	43%	41%	33%^[12]	37+/-4%	+4%
Net satisfaction rate	-8%	-16%	-9%	+8%	-2%	-10%
Mean value^[11]	2.8+/-0.1^[12] (Base =538)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base =494)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base =506)	3.0+/-0.1^[12] (Base =538)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base =495)	-0.1
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[11]	28%	31%	32%	40%^[12]	27+/-4%	-13%^[12]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	44%^[12]	39%^[12]	38%	34%	45+/-4%	+11%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	-16%	-8%	-6%	+6%	-18%	-24%
Mean value^[11]	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (Base =535)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base =627)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base =529)	3.0+/-0.1^[12] (Base =602)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base =519)	-0.3^[12]
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[11]	25%	22%	26%	25%	26+/-4%	+1%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	47%	50%	50%	49%	47+/-4%	-2%
Net satisfaction rate	-22%	-28%	-24%	-24%	-21%	+3%
Mean value^[11]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base =596)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base =568)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base =517)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base =656)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base =499)	--
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[11]	16%	18%	20%	19%	14+/-3%	-5%^[12]
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	57%	57%	58%	59%	62+/-4%	+3%
Net satisfaction rate	-41%	-39%	-38%	-40%	-48%	-8%
Mean value^[11]	2.3+/-0.1^[12] (Base =547)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base =601)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base =516)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base =632)	2.2+/-0.1 (Base =533)	-0.2^[12]

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[13] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 41%. The government’s performance in protecting human rights and freedom followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 35%. The government’s performance in maintaining economic prosperity also attained a satisfaction percentage of 27%. Finally, a respective of 26% and 14% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in developing democracy as well as improving people's livelihood. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.1, 2,9, 2.7, 2.6 and 2.2 respectively, meaning close to “half-half” or “quite dissatisfied” in general.

Indepth Analysis

Since the discovery of illegal structures in CY Leung’s residence at the Peak occurred during our survey period, the research team conducted an indepth analysis of his support rating and approval rate breakdown by the survey dates, in order to gauge the daily change of public opinion. The results are as follows:

	19/6/2012	20/6/2012	21/6/2012	22/6/2012	24/6/2012	25/6/2012	Total
Support Rating of CE-elect CY Leung^[14]	52.7+/-3.3 (177)	53.1+/-2.2 (293)	53.6+/-3.3 (130)	50.1+/-4.1 (100)	49.2+/-5.3 (61)	47.6+/-3.1 (221)	51.3+/-1.3 (982)
Support CY Leung as CE^[14]	48+/-7% (91)	50+/-6% (152)	51+/-8% (72)	39+/-10% (41)	45+/-12% (29)	43+/-6% (99)	47+/-3% (485)
Oppose CY Leung as CE^[14]	37+/-7% (70)	41+/-6% (125)	39+/-8% (56)	39+/-9% (41)	50+/-12% (32)	46+/-7% (108)	42+/-3% (432)

[14]Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 16 to 21 March, 2012 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 25 June, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

23/6/12	Chief Executive-elect Leung Chun-ying is asked to give a full explanation about the illegal structures at his home.
22/6/12	Chief Executive-elect Leung Chun-ying apologizes for the six illegal structures at his home.
21/6/12	Legislators veto to discuss in priority the motion to reorganize the government secretariat.
10/6/12	25,000 protestors demand Li Wangyang probe.
4/6/12	180,000 people take part in the June 4 candlelight vigil in Victoria Park.
1/6/12	Donald Tsang apologizes to the public for his use of luxury hotel suites during overseas visits.
31/5/12	Donald Tsang spends HK$4.5 million over the past year on overseas visits.
17/5/12	Legislative Council President Jasper Tsang makes the decision to halt the debate on the replacement mechanism bill.
11/5/12	Hong Kong registers its lowest rate of economic growth in more than two years in the first quarter.
2/5/12	Blind activist Chen Guangcheng seeks protection in US embassy after fleeing house arrest.
17/4/12	Chief Executive-elect Leung Chun-ying proposes zero quota to stop mainland birth tourism.
10/4/12	Premier Wen Jiabao reminded Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying that it was important for politicians to stay away from corruption.
29/3/12	Sun Hung Kai bosses Thomas and Raymond Kwok detained with former chief secretary Rafael Hui for bribery and misconduct.
25/3/12	Leung Chun Ying wins the Chief Executive election with 689 votes.
16/3/12	The Chief Executive candidate Henry Tang Ying-yen attacks Leung Chun-ying's integrity.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "This is the final popularity survey of CE Donald Tsang during his term of service. Our survey shows that the latest support rating of CE Donald Tsang is 40.1 marks, meaning a rebound of 1.6 marks compared to the last survey. His latest approval rate stands at 15%, disapproval rate at 76%, giving a net popularity of negative 61 percentage points. Compared to the last Governor Chris Patten and former CE Tung Chee-hwa, Donald Tsang has the lowest popularity figures before his departure. Tsang’s popularity flow is a typical “high start low end” pattern, while Patten’s flow is an “ups and downs with a level end” pattern, and Tung’s flow shows a “middle down level off” pattern. As for CE-elect CY Leung, his latest support rating is at a new low of 51.3 marks, down significantly by 2.8 marks. His approval rate drops to 47%, disapproval rate rises to 42%, meaning that his net popularity has narrowed to positive 5 percentage points, probably due to the scandal of illegal structures at his Peak residence. Since the incident occurred during our survey period, our team conducted a day-to-day analysis of his support rating and approval rate by the survey dates, and found that as the scandal develops, CY Leung’s popularity drops constantly. As for the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its satisfaction rate has remained unchanged while dissatisfaction rate goes up by 5 percentage points to 52%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 32 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, only the relation with the Central Government among five registers a positive value, at positive 14 percentage points. The remaining four items all register negative net values: protection of human rights and freedom at negative 2 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at negative 18 percentage points, developing democracy at negative 21 percentage points, and improving people’s livelihood at negative 48 percentage points with a dissatisfaction rate of 60%, rendering it an obvious area for immediate improvement. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Releases

June 28, 2012 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s appraisal of society's conditions, PSI analysis
June 29, 2012 (Friday) 1pm to 2pm: HKSAR anniversary survey
July 3, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of disciplinary forces
July 10, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 political groups