HKU POP releases the latest trust and confidence indicators Back

Press Release on June 19, 2012

Special Announcement

The "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) hosted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has already added an "Opinion Forum" page. Users are welcome to share personal opinions on latest social issues, and to win prizes with the credits earned. Current topics of the Forum include the right of land ownership in the New Territories, local housing problem, guestimate of this year's July 1st rally participants as well as other intensely discussing social issues. Moreover, PopCon Facebook Fan Page has been launched (http://www.facebook.com/popcon.hk ). The platform has established a brand new "Prizes every month" scheme since May 29, with cut-off date on the 23rd each month. The first prize of June will be a soon-to-publish commemorative book on "3.23 PopVote project".

In the next two weeks, POP will one-by-one release the survey series of "HKSAR anniversary". Please see the "Future Releases" section for details.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong people between 4 and 12 June 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that people's trust in the HKSAR Government has not changed much compared to three months ago, but distrust has slightly dropped, giving a net trust value of positive 3 percentage points. However, people's trust in the Central Government and Taiwan Government have both dropped significantly, giving net trust values of negative 5 percentage points for both. People's distrust in the Central Government reaches record high since May 1997, probably due to incidents of Bo Xilai, Chen Guangcheng and Li Wangyang. As for the confidence indicators, compared to three months ago, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong has dropped significantly, that in 'one country, two systems' has gone down slightly, giving net confidence values of positive 21 and positive 14 percentage points respectively. As for people's confidence in China's future, even though it has remained positive, it has nevertheless dropped significantly by 12 percentage points to its record low since 1998, with a net confidence of positive 44 percentage points. Further analysis shows that those of age 50 or above trust the HKSAR and Beijing Central governments much more than the younger respondents. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rates of the surveys are 63%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the"HKU POP SITE"is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there
[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,003 successful interviews, not 1,003 x 63.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4]When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
4-12/6/2012	1,003	63.4%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments and people's confidence in the future as well as "one country, two systems" are summarized below:

Date of survey	6/2011	9/2011	12/2011	3/2012	6/2012	Latest Change
Total sample size^[7]	1,034	1,038	1,005	1,022	1,003	--
Overall response rate	66.5%	66.2%	67.4%	63.6%	63.4%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[8]	--
Trust in HKSAR Government^[9]	34%	44%^[10]	35%^[10]	36%	35+/-4%	-1%
Distrust in HKSAR Government^[9]	28%	28%	32%	36%	32+/-4%	-4%
Net trust	+6%	+16%	+3%	--	+3%	+3%
Mean value^[9]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base =503)	3.2+/-0.1^[10] (Base =487)	3.0+/-0.1^[10] (Base =529)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base =580)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=537)	+0.1
Trust in Beijing Government^[9]	31%	35%	33%	39%^[10]	32+/-4%	-7%^[10]
Distrust in Beijing Government^[9]	31%	33%	32%	34%	37+/-4%	+3%
Net trust	--	+2%	+1%	+5%	-5%	-10%
Mean value^[9]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base =488)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base =552)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base =527)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base =529)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=515)	-0.2^[10]
Trust in Taiwan Government^[9]	16%	16%	18%	31%^[10]	24+/-4%	-7%^[10]
Distrust in Taiwan Government^[9]	32%	34%	30%	28%	29+/-4%	+1%
Net trust	-16%	-18%	-12%	+3%	-5%	-8%
Mean value^[9]	2.7+/-0.1 (Base =419)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base =364)	2.8+/-0.1^[10] (Base =378)	3.0+/-0.1^[10] (Base =410)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=447)	-0.1
Confidence in HK's future	59%	59%	55%	58%	53+/-4%	-5%^[10]
No-confidence in HK's future	31%	34%	37%	35%	32+/-4%	-3%
Net confidence	+28%	+25%	+18%	+23%	+21%	-2%
Confidence in China's future	75%	73%	73%	79%^[10]	67+/-4%	-12%^[10]
No-confidence in China's future	15%	20%^[10]	19%	15%^[10]	23+/-3%	+8%^[10]
Net confidence	+60%	+53%	+54%	+64%	+44%	-20%
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	59%	58%	52%^[10]	55%	51+/-4%	-4%
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	34%	33%	40%^[10]	39%	37+/-4%	-2%
Net confidence	+25%	+25%	+12%	+16%	+14%	-2%

[7] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 531 to 612, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 35% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 32% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 24% trusted the Taiwan Government. The mean scores of these trust indicators are 3.0, 2.8 and 2.9 respectively, meaning close to "half-half" in general. On the other hand, 53% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 67% had confidence in China's future, while 51% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents' trust in HKSAR Government and Beijing Central Government by age:

Date of survey: 4-12/6/12		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Percentage of trust/ distrust in HKSAR Government ^[11]	Trust	23+/-8% (25)	30+/-6% (67)	44+/-7% (97)	35+/-4% (189)
	Half-half	38+/-9% (40)	33+/-6% (74)	25+/-6% (54)	31+/-4% (169)
	Distrust	38+/-9% (40)	35+/-6% (78)	26+/-6% (58)	32+/-4% (176)
	Don't know/ hard to say	1+/-1% (2)	1+/-1% (2)	4+/-3% (10)	2+/-1% (13)
	Total	100% (106)	100% (222)	100% (219)	100% (547)
	Mean value	2.8+/-0.2 (Base=104)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=220)	3.2+/-0.2 (Base=209)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=533)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 4-12/6/12		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Percentage of trust/ distrust in Beijing Central Government^[12]	Trust	21+/-8% (21)	25+/-6% (53)	43+/-7% (97)	32+/-4% (171)
	Half-half	25+/-9% (25)	31+/-6% (65)	23+/-6% (52)	26+/-4% (142)
	Distrust	51+/-10% (52)	40+/-7% (86)	28+/-6% (63)	37+/-4% (200)
	Don't know/ hard to say	3+/-3% (3)	4+/-3% (8)	6+/-3% (13)	5+/-2% (24)
	Total	100% (100)	100% (212)	100% (226)	100% (538)
	Mean value	2.5+/-0.2 (Base=98)	2.7+/-0.2 (Base=204)	3.1+/-0.2 (Base=212)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=514)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from March 9 to 11, 2012 while this survey was conducted from June 4 to 12, 2012. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

12/6/12	Former Monetary Authority Chief Executive Yam Chi- kwong says the linked exchange rate system should be reviewed.
10/6/12	25,000 protestors demand Li Wangyang probe.
4/6/12	180,000 people take part in the June 4 candlelight vigil in Victoria Park.
1/6/12	Donald Tsang apologizes to the public for his use of luxury hotel suites during overseas visits.
17/5/12	Legislative Council President Jasper Tsang makes the decision to halt the debate on the replacement mechanism bill.
2/5/12	Blind activist Chen Guangcheng seeks protection in US embassy after fleeing house arrest.
19/4/12	CE Donald Tsang says we need to work more closely as to avoid conflicting policies and decisions.
17/4/12	Chief Executive-elect Leung Chun-ying proposes zero quota to stop mainland birth tourism.
13/4/12	The lower-than-expected China's GDP data decelerated further to 8.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011.
11/4/12	Ousted Chongqing Communist Party chief Bo Xilai is accused of covering up his wife Gu Kailai's the murder of a British businessman.
10/4/12	Premier Wen Jiabao reminded Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying that it was important for politicians to stay away from corruption.
9/4/12	Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office director Wang Guangya said it's time to put aside differences and look forward future.
25/3/12	Leung Chun Ying wins the Chief Executive election with 689 votes.
16/3/12	The Chief Executive candidate Henry Tang Ying-yen attacks Leung Chun-ying's integrity.
15/3/12	Vice Premier Zhang Dejiang replaces Bo Xilai as the Secretary of Municipal Committee of the CPC in Chongqing.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey conducted in early June shows that people's trust in the HKSAR Government has not changed much compared to three months ago, but distrust has slightly dropped, giving a net trust value of positive 3 percentage points. However, people's trust in the Central Government and Taiwan Government have both dropped significantly, giving net trust values of negative 5 percentage points for both. People's distrust in the Central Government reaches record high since May 1997, probably due to incidents of Bo Xilai, Chen Guangcheng and Li Wangyang. As for the confidence indicators, compared to three months ago, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong has dropped significantly, that in 'one country, two systems' has gone down slightly, giving net confidence values of positive 21 and positive 14 percentage points respectively. As for people's confidence in China's future, even though it has remained positive, it has nevertheless dropped significantly by 12 percentage points to its record low since 1998, with a net confidence of positive 44 percentage points. Further analysis shows that those of age 50 or above trust the HKSAR and Beijing Central governments much more than the younger respondents. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Future Releases (Tentative)

June 26, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Hong Kong people's ethnic identity
June 27, 2012 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of disciplinary forces
June 28, 2012 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: People's appraisal of society's conditions
June 29, 2012 (Friday) 1pm to 2pm: HKSAR anniversary survey
July 3, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE, CE-elect and SARG
July 10, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 10 political groups