HKU POP releases findings of the latest annual June Fourth surveyBack

(1) The "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) hosted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has already added an "Opinion Forum" page. Users are welcome to share personal opinions on latest social issues, and to win prizes with the credits earned. Current topics of the Forum include the termination of filibuster by Jasper Tsang, the provision of two subsidies by Community Care Fund, the inflation of MTR fares, the building of the third runway as well as opinions on column article “The New World of Public Opinion”. Moreover, the platform has established a brand new “Prizes every month” scheme since May 29, with cut-off date on the 23rd each month. The first prize of June will be a soon-to-publish commemorative book on “3.23 PopVote project”.

(2) The “HKU POP Site” ( http://hkupop.pori.hk) and the “PopCon” website (http://popcon.hk) yesterday uploaded a column article entitled “The New World of Public Opinion” (in Chinese only for the time being) written by the Director of POP Robert Chung. The media is welcome to carry or report the article in full or in part any time, all copyrights open.

POP interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong people between 22 and 29 May by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds quite a few significant changes in people’s views of June 4. From a broad perspective, mainstream opinion continues to maintain that the Chinese Government was wrong in 1989, people still support the Beijing students, demand a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth, and oppose to disbanding the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China. Moreover, people continue to think that Hong Kong people have a responsibility to promote democratic and economic development in China. The percentages have remained stable. However, if one had to choose between the two, the ratio becomes 35% versus 29%. Although the difference is not big, this is the first time in our 20 anniversary surveys that the percentage of those who think that Hong Kong people should put more effort to promote democratic development in China is higher than that of economic development. When asked to balance the priority between democratic and economic development for China, again choosing one out of two, the ratio becomes 42% versus 29% in favour of democratic development. As on the human right condition in China, more people consider the situation has improved since 1989, and feel optimistic about future development, both positive figures go up significantly as compared to last year. Further analyses show that the younger the respondent, the more likely one believes the Chinese Government did the wrong thing in the June 4 Incident, and more likely one supports a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth. This probably reflects the demand for democracy among the younger generation. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.7. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

POP today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" the findings of the latest annual June Fourth survey. As a general practice, all the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Figures of latest annual June Fourth survey are summarized as follows:

This year’s survey findings revealed that 55% of the respondents believed that the Beijing students did the right thing in 1989, while 16% believed that they did the wrong thing. Meanwhile, with regard to the way the Chinese Government handled the matter at that time, 12% regarded it as correct and 69% regarded it as wrong.

The findings also showed that 61% of the respondents supported a reversion of the official stand on the incident while 17% did not. Regarding the human right condition in China, 62% of the respondents believed that China's human right condition has been improved since 1989, and 47% anticipated that China's human right condition will be improved after 3 years.

Moreover, 70% of the respondents believed that Hong Kong people had a responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China, whereas on the economic aspect, 71% believed that Hong Kong people had such a responsibility. When comparing democratic and economic development, 29% of the respondents believed Hong Kong people should put more effort on instigating economic development in China, while 35% of the respondents put more weight on the development of democracy. Furthermore, 29% believed that China should emphasize more on its economic development, while 42% believed that China should emphasize more on the development of democracy.  Latest figures regarding the HK Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (“the Alliance”) are as follows:

Regarding the Alliance, 15% of the respondents said the Alliance should be disbanded, 56% said no. The latest popularity rating of the Alliance was 54.5 marks.

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analyses of respondents views on the Chinese Government handling the June 4 Incident and on a reversion of the official stand on the incident by respondents' age:

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme observed, “This is the 20th anniversary survey on the June Fourth Incident conducted by POP, marking the 23rd anniversary of June Fourth. Quite a few significant changes have been registered. From a broad perspective, mainstream opinion continues to maintain that the Chinese Government was wrong in 1989, people still support the Beijing students, demand a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth, and oppose to disbanding the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China. Moreover, people continue to think that Hong Kong people have a responsibility to promote democratic and economic development in China. The percentages have remained stable. However, if one had to choose between the two, the ratio becomes 35% versus 29%. Although the difference is not big, this is the first time in our 20 anniversary surveys that the percentage of those who think that Hong Kong people should put more effort to promote democratic development in China is higher than that of economic development. When asked to balance the priority between democratic and economic development for China, again choosing one out of two, the ratio becomes 42% versus 29% in favour of democratic development. As on the human right condition in China, more people consider the situation has improved since 1989, and feel optimistic about future development, both positive figures go up significantly as compared to last year. Further analyses show that the younger the respondent, the more likely one believes the Chinese Government did the wrong thing in the June 4 Incident, and more likely one supports a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth. This probably reflects the demand for democracy among the younger generation.”

June Fourth is an important page in the contemporary history of China with a tremendous impact on both the development of Hong Kong and Mainland China. The June Fourth complex which deeply troubled Hong Kong people has dictated the results of many elections, as well as changed the course of Hong Kong's return to the motherland. Therefore, HKUPOP began to study Hong Kong people's opinions of June Fourth and human right conditions in China since 1993. This is the 20th anniversary survey in a row. We explained the development of this polling series in our press releases of May 31, 2007, June 3, 2008, May 27, 2009, June 1, 2010 and June 2, 2011. Today, we publish it again, so that readers can grasp such developments more comprehensively.

Starting from May 1993, we began this June Fourth survey. Ever since then, it is repeated once every year. The survey has asked respondents to rate the Alliance before June Fourth since 1992 and the wordings used in this question are, “Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate the Alliance?”. Other questions include “Do you think the Beijing students did the right thing in the June Fourth Incident?”, “Do you think the Chinese Government did the right thing in the June Fourth Incident?”, “Do you think the human right condition in China will be better or even worse in three years' time?”, “Compared to 1989, do you think China's human right condition has become better or worse?”, “Do you think Hong Kong people have a responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China?”, “Do you think Hong Kong people should put more effort on instigating development in China’s economy or democracy?”, “Which do you think China needs more economic or democratic development?” and “Do you think the Alliance should be disbanded?”

In 1996, we added a question to survey people’s opinion on whether Hong Kong people have a responsibility to instigate economic development in China while in 1997, we also included a question to see if people would support a reversion of the official stand on the June Fourth Incident.

Regarding sample size, from the beginning to May 1999, the sample size of the survey was set at slightly over 500. Then from May 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.

Our findings of previous surveys in May 1999 or before were published in our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established, the findings are released online, while all previous findings published in our POP Express have also uploaded on-line in various formats.

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