HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of Executive CouncillorsBack

Press Release on May 22, 2012

Special Announcement

The "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) hosted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has already added an "Opinion Forum" page. Users are welcome to share personal opinions on latest social issues, and to win prizes with the credits earned. Current topics of the Forum include the filibuster attempt by lawmakers, the introduction of criminal penalties to the "Copyright Bill", the re-organization of government structure by CY Leung, as well as the review and future development of "3.23 Civil Referendum Project". POP will also release its "3.23 Civil Referendum Project Activity Report" tomorrow, at the "HKU POP Site" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) and the "PopVote" website (http://popvote.hk). Please take note.

Abstract

The latest survey conducted by POP shows that compared to three months ago, the only significant change in the popularity ratings of "top 5" non-official Executive Councillors goes to Ronald Arculli, whose rating goes down by 2.3 marks. In terms of absolute ratings, only two of our "top 5" non-official Executive Councillors get more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Anthony Cheung re-enters the list after January 2009 to occupy the first position. Ronald Arculli goes down one position to become the second. Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat remain at the third to fifth places. It should be noted, however, that our list of "top 5" only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figures is below +/-2.0 marks. The response rate of the rating survey is 65%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey on top 5 Executive Councillors is 1,034 successful interviews, not 1,034 x 64.8% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,044 successful interviews, not 1,044 x 64.6% response rate.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.0 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of Executive Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings^[6]
24/4-2/5/2012 (First stage naming survey)	1,034	64.8%	+/-4%
3-10/5/2012 (Second stage rating survey)	1,044	64.6%	+/-2.0

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our “Top 5 Executive Councillors” is similar to that of our “Top 10” series, it is explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from late April to early May. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Latest findings of the naming survey are as follows:

Date of survey	4-12/4/11	11-20/7/11	13-20/10/11	3-6/1/12	24/4-2/5/12	Latest Change in Ranking
Sample base	1,005	1,028	1,040	1,007	1,034^[8]	--
Overall response rate	68.5%	66.4%	69.8%	65.1%	64.8%	--
Finding/ Error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[7]^**	--
Cheng Yiu-tong	7%{2}	7%{2}	7%{3}	7%{3}	9+/-2%{1}	↑2
Ronald Arculli	5%{4}	3%{6}	15%{1}	11%{2}	6+/-2%{2}	--
Lau Kong-wah	5%{5}	2%{7}	7%{2}	5%{4}	4+/-2%{3}	↑1
Lau Wong-fat	6%{3}	4%{4}	5%{4}	12%{1}	3+/-1%{4}	↓3
Anthony Cheung	3%{6}	6%{3}	5%{5}	4%{5}	2+/-1%{5} ^[9]	--
Laura M Cha	2%{7}	1%{8}	1%{8}	1%{9}	2+/-1%{6} ^[9]	↑3
Leong Che-hung	2%{8}	4%{5}	4%{6}	3%{6}	1+/-1%{7}	↓1
Lawrence Lau	<1%{11}	0%	<1%{12}	<1%{10}	<1+/-1%{8}	↑2
Marvin Cheung	<1%{10}	<1%{10}	<1%{10}	0%{13}	<1+/-1%{8}	↑5
Anna Wu	2%{9}	1%{9}	2%{7}	1%{7}	0%{10}	↓3
Marjorie Yang	0%{13}	0%	0%{13}	1%{8}	0%{10}	↓2
V Nee Yeh	0%{13}	0%	1%{9}	<1%{11}	0%{10}	↑1
Charles Lee	<1%{12}	0%	<1%{11}	<1%{11}	0%{10}	↑1
Leung Chun-ying^[10]	23%{1}	34%{1}	--	--	--	--
Wrong answer	15%	27%	33%	31%	18%+/-3%	--
Don’t know/hard to say	64%	50%	51%	53%	72%+/-4%	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings in our naming survey. Councillors with the same recognition rate will be ranked according to the decimal place of the corresponding percentages. Please refer to the POP Site for detailed figures of the previous surveys. The error margin of previous surveys can also be found at the POP Site.
[8] The sub-sample size for this survey is 566.
[9] The percentages of respondents who could name Anthony Cheung and Laura M Cha were 1.9% and 1.6%. Hence Anthony Cheung ranked the 4th, while Laura M Cha was ranked the 5th.
[10] Leung Chun-ying resigned as Executive Council convenor on October 4, 2011.
** Erratum: Some recognition rates in the original release were mistyped, with regret.

The naming survey conducted from late April to early May showed that Cheng Yiu-tong was named most frequently with a recognition rate of 9%. Ronald Arculli, Lau Kong-wah, Lau Wong-fat, Anthony Cheung and Laura M Cha with recognition rate of 6%, 4%, 3%, 2% and 2%, ranked the 2nd to 6th. However, 18% made a wrong attempt at citing Executive Councillors (non-official) while 72% had no clue.

Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in early May, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	15-29/4/11	21-25/7/11	25/10-2/11/11	9-14/1/12	3-10/5/12		Latest change
Sample base	558-626	551-642	550-660	525-612	630-686		--
Overall response rate	59.7%	67.1%	65.5%	67.3%	64.6%		--
Finding/ Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error ^[11]	Recognition rate	--
Anthony Cheung	48.5^[12]	47.5^[12]	50.0^[12]^[13]	51.6^[12]	52.4{1}+/-1.6	64.3%	+0.8
Ronald Arculli	51.3{1}^[13]	49.0{1}^[13]	51.6{1}^[13]	53.6{1}^[13]	51.3{2}+/-1.5	78.7%	-2.3^[13]
Cheng Yiu-tong	43.9{4}^[13]	42.2{4}	44.0{3}	46.7{3}^[13]	45.6{3}+/-1.7	78.7%	-1.1
Lau Kong-wah	44.2{3}^[13]	--	42.2{4}	44.9{4}^[13]	44.9{4}+/-1.9	73.0%	--
Lau Wong-fat	37.3{5}	38.0{5}	38.6{5}	35.6{5}^[13]	34.6{5}+/-1.8	89.1%	-1.0
Laura M Cha	--	--	--	--	48.7+/-2.0^[12]	45.6%	--
Leong Che-hung	--	47.4{3}	48.1{2}	50.2{2}	--	--	--
Leung Chun-ying^[14]	47.6{2}^[13]	48.1{2}	--	--	--	--	--

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.0 marks at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[14] Leung Chun-ying resigned as Executive Council convenor on October 4, 2011.

The latest rating survey conducted in early May showed that Anthony Cheung was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 52.4 marks. The 2nd rank went to Ronald Arculli with 51.3 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat with 45.6, 44.9 and 34.6 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 45.7 marks. For this latest survey, Laura M Cha obtained a support rating of 48.7 marks, but she was dropped due to her relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	21-25/7/11	25/10-2/11/11	9-14/1/12	3-10/5/12	No.of times on top 5	Average rating ^[15]	Overall ranking ^[16]
Ronald Arculli	49.0	51.6	53.6	51.3	4	51.4	1
Cheng Yiu-tong	42.2	44.0	46.7	45.6	4	44.6	2
Lau Wong-fat	38.0	38.6	35.6	34.6	4	36.7	3
Leong Che-hung	47.4	48.1	50.2	-	3	48.6	4
Lau Kong-wah	-	42.2	44.9	44.9	3	44.0	5
Anthony Cheung	-	-	-	52.4	1	52.4	6
Leung Chun-ying^[17]	48.1	-	-	-	1	48.1	7

[15] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
[16] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 5, and then their average ratings.
[17] Leung Chun-ying resigned as Executive Council convenor on October 4, 2011.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. Ronald Arculli, Cheng Yiu-tong and Lau Wong-fat ranked 1st to 3rd place respectively and achieved average ratings of 51.4, 44.6 and 36.7 marks. Leong Che-hung and Lau Kong-wah have been on the list for three times with average ratings of 48.6 and 44.0 marks, ranked the 4th and 5th respectively. Anthony Cheung and Leung Chun-ying have been on the list once with an average rating of 52.4 and 48.1 marks, ranked at 6th and 7th places respectively.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from January 9 to 14, 2012 while this survey was conducted from May 3 to 10, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

8/5/12	CLP predicts a upward shift in electricity prices.
19/4/12	CE Donald Tsang says we need to work more closely as to avoid conflicting policies and decisions.
17/4/12	Chief Executive-elect Leung Chun-ying proposes zero quota to stop mainland birth tourism.
31/3/12	New Territories villagers refuse the urge by Secretary of Development Carrie Lam to register unauthorized structures.
10/3/12	The Chief Executive candidate Leung Chun-ying election office personnel and the Heung Yee Kuk members give different versions of the alleged dinner with a gangster boss.
1/3/12	CE Donald Tsang apologises for incidents of conflict of interest.
24/2/12	Chief Executive candidate Leung Chun-ying involved in the West Kowloon interests to declare storm.
23/2/12	Former Executive Council convenor Leung Chun-ying formally joins the race to become chief executive with 292 nominations.
1/2/12	The Financial Secretary John Tsang announces the 2012-13 Budget.
24/1/12	Chairman of Heung Yee Kuk Mr Lau divination at Che Kung Temple.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Compared to three months ago, the only significant change in the popularity ratings of ‘top 5’ non-official Executive Councillors goes to Ronald Arculli, whose rating goes down by 2.3 marks. In terms of absolute ratings, only two of our ‘top 5’ non-official Executive Councillors get more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Anthony Cheung re-enters the list after January 2009 to occupy the first position. Ronald Arculli goes down one position to become the second. Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat remain at the third to fifth places. It should be noted, however, that our list of ‘top 5’ only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the ‘Opinion Daily’ of our POP Site.”

Future Release (Tentative)

May 29, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and SAR Government