HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, CE-elect CY Leung and principal officialsBack

 
Press Release on May 15, 2012

| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |


Special Announcement

 

The "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) hosted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has already added an "Opinion Forum" page. Users are welcome to share personal opinions on latest social issues, and to win prizes with the credits earned. Current topics of the Forum include the introduction of criminal penalties to the "Copyright Bill", the re-organization of government structure by CY Leung, as well as the review and future development of "3.23 Civil Referendum Project".



Abstract

POP interviewed 1,044 Hong Kong people between May 3 to 10, 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang is 42.9 marks, significantly lower than last time. His approval rate now stands at 20%, disapproval rate at 73%, giving a net popularity of negative 53 percentage points. Although Tsang’s overall popularity has not changed much compared with two weeks ago, they are the poorest figures since he became CE. As for CE-elect CY Leung, his latest support rating is 56.5 marks, approval rate 56%, disapproval rate 34%, meaning that his net popularity stands at positive 22 percentage points, further widening his lead over CE Donald Tsang. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Stephen Lam is 38.9 marks, approval rate 13%, disapproval rate 43%, giving a net popularity of negative 30 percentage points. The popularity of FS John Tsang has increased significantly, his support rating is 52.7 marks, approval rate 43%, disapproval rate 19%, giving a net approval rate of positive 24 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 58.0 marks, approval rate dropped to 53% which is his all-time record low, disapproval rate 9%, and his net popularity stands at positive 44 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rate of 5 of the 12 Directors have gone up, that of 7 Directors have gone down. Among them, only Secretary for Food and Health York Chow has registered change in approval rate beyond sampling error, down by 7 percentage points. Among all the Directors, only Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Education Michael Suen register negative popularity, at negative 7 and 35 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Development Carrie Lam continues to be the most popular Director, while registering her all-time high approval rate. According to POP’s standard, Carrie Lam falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung, Matthew Cheung and Eva Cheng now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of John Tsang, York Chow, Edward Yau, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam, Denise Yue and Gregory So can be labeled as “inconspicuous”, Michael Suen can be labeled as “depressing” and that of Donald Tsang “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.


Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,044 successful interviews, not 1,044 x 64.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.0 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.




Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, CE-elect Leung Chun-ying, as well as Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey

Overall sample size

Response rate

Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]

3-10/5/2012

1,044

64.6%

+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

 

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

                   

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

Sample size
(total sample or sub-sample)

Sampling error of percentages[7]
(maximum values)

1,300

+/- 2.8 %

1,350

+/- 2.7 %

1,200

+/- 2.9 %

1,250

+/- 2.8 %

1,100

+/- 3.0 %

1,150

+/- 3.0 %

1,000

+/- 3.2 %

1,050

+/- 3.1 %

900

+/- 3.3 %

950

+/- 3.2 %

800

+/- 3.5 %

850

+/- 3.4 %

700

+/- 3.8 %

750

+/- 3.7 %

600

+/- 4.1 %

650

+/- 3.9 %

500

+/- 4.5 %

550

+/- 4.3 %

400

+/- 5.0 %

450

+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

 

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and CE-elect CY Leung are summarized as follows:

Date of survey

2-7/3/12

16-21/3/12

27-30/3/12

2-10/4/12

17-23/4/12

3-10/5/12

Latest change

Sample base

1,001

1,020

1,019

1,006

1,034

1,044

--

Overall response rate

66.6%

62.8%

63.4%

60.0%

65.0%

64.6%

--

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding and error[8]

--

Rating of CE Donald Tsang

43.5[9]

45.3[9]

--

44.6

44.9

42.9+/-1.3

-2.0[9]

Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang

25%[9]

25%

--

23%

20%

20+/-2%

--

Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang

71%[9]

69%

--

70%

72%

73+/-3%

+1%

Net approval rate

-46%

-44%

--

-47%

-52%

-53%

-1%

Support Rating of CE-elect Leung Chun-ying

--

--

51.5

52.2

54.0[9]

56.5+/-1.3

+2.5[9]

Support Leung Chun-ying as CE

--

--

38%

46%[9]

48%

56+/-3%

+8%[9]

Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE

--

--

51%

45%[9]

39%[9]

34+/-3%

-5%[9]

Net approval rate

--

--

-13%

+1%

+9%

+22%

+13%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

 

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey

1/2/12

1-6/2/12

2-7/3/12

2-10/4/12

3-10/5/12

Latest change [10]

Sample base[10]

1,015

597-618

574-583

523-696

515-538

--

Overall response rate

71.1%

64.0%

66.6%

60.0%

64.6%

--

Latest finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding

Finding & error [11]

--

Ratings of CS Stephen Lam

--

38.6[12]

38.0

36.7

38.9+/-2.0

+2.2[12]

Vote of confidence in CS Stephen Lam

--

13%

20%[12]

14%[12]

13+/-3%

-1%

Vote of no confidence in CS Stephen Lam

--

40%

37%

45%[12]

43+/-4%

-2%

Net approval rate

--

-27%

-17%

-31%

-30%

+1%

Ratings of FS John Tsang

54.1[12]

51.0[12]

50.9

49.8

52.7+/-1.6

+2.9[12]

Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang

29%[12]

34%[12]

41%[12]

36%[12]

43+/-4%

+7%[12]

Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang

26%

25%

24%

26%

19+/-3%

-7%[12]

Net approval rate

3%

9%

17%

10%

24%

+14%

Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong

--

58.6

60.5[12]

60.3

58.0+/-1.6

-2.3[12]

Vote of confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong

--

57%

62%[12]

63%

53+/-4%

-10%[12]

Vote of no confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong

--

9%

6%[12]

6%

9+/-3%

+3%

Net approval rate

--

48%

56%

57%

44%

-13%

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

 

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey

2-7/3/12

2-10/4/12

3-10/5/12

Latest change

Sample base [13]

504-658

531-660

502-551

--

Overall response rate

66.6%

60.0%

64.6%

--

Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer

Base

%

Base

%

Base

% & error [14]

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam

525

67%[15]

619

74%[15]

551

76+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam

525

8%[15]

619

10%

551

6+/-2%

-4%[15]

Net approval rate

--

59%

--

64%

--

70%

+6%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee

606

57%

639

59%

549

56+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee

606

15%

639

14%

549

20+/-3%

+6%[15]

Net approval rate

--

42%

--

45%

--

36%

-9%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

599

52%

624

54%

520

52+/-4%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung

599

12%

624

13%

520

13+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

--

40%

--

41%

--

39%

-2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng

562

50%

634

49%

518

51+/-4%

+2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng

562

16%

634

20%[15]

518

14+/-3%

-6%[15]

Net approval rate

--

34%

--

29%

--

37%

+8%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow

658

46%

614

47%

514

40+/-4%

-7%[15]

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow

658

28%

614

28%

514

34+/-4%

+6%[15]

Net approval rate

--

18%

--

19%

--

6%

-13%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

504

36%

629

38%[16]

522

37+/-4%

-1%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan

504

12%

629

13%

522

12+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

24%

--

25%

--

25%

--

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau

557

40%[15]

531

39%

537

36+/-4%

-3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau

557

22%

531

23%

537

23+/-4%

--

Net approval rate

--

18%

--

16%

--

13%

-3%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

605

34%[15]

550

31%

550

34+/-4%[17]

+3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam

605

10%

550

13%

550

12+/-3%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

24%

--

18%

--

22%

+4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue

598

40%[15]

660

38%[16]

547

34+/-4%[17]

-4%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue

598

6%[15]

660

10%[15]

547

10+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

--

34%

--

28%

--

24%

-4%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

590

29%

556

26%

502

29+/-4%

+3%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing

590

28%[15]

556

36%[15]

502

36+/-4%

--

Net approval rate

--

1%

--

-10%

--

-7%

+3%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

649

27%[15]

578

23%

523

25+/-4%

+2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So

649

15%

578

15%

523

15+/-3%

--

Net approval rate

--

12%

--

8%

--

10%

+2%

Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen

592

23%[15]

638

20%

530

18+/-3%

-2%

Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen

592

46%[15]

638

54%[15]

530

53+/-4%

-1%

Net approval rate

--

-23%

--

-34%

--

-35%

-1%

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

[16] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue is 38.3%, while that of Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan is 37.5%, so that Denise Yue ranks 7th while Ceajer Chan ranks 8th.

[17] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam is 33.7%, while that of Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue is 33.5%, so that Raymond Tam ranks 8th while Denise Yue ranks 9th.


The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 42.9 marks, and 20% supported him as the Chief Executive, his net approval rate is negative 53%. CE-elect Leung Chun-ying scored 56.5 marks, and 56% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is positive 22%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Stephen Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 38.9, 52.7 and 58.0 marks, and 13%, 43% and 53% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are negative 30%, positive 24% and positive 44% respectively.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, attaining 76%. Her net approval rate is positive 70%. The 2nd to 4th places belonged to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, with approval rates 56%, 52% and 51% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 36%, 39% and 37% respectively. Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So and Secretary for Education Michael Suen ranked 5th to 12th, as they gained 40%, 37%, 36%, 34%, 34%, 29%, 25% and 18% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 6%, positive 25%, positive 13%, positive 22%, positive 24%, negative 7%, positive 10% and negative 35%. In other words, Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee, Matthew Cheung and Eva Cheng scored approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.



Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

 

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from April 2 to 10, 2012 while this survey was conducted from May 3 to 10, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

8/5/12

CLP predicts an upward shift in electricity prices.

4/5/12

Former Sun Hung Kei President Walter Kwok Ping-sheung is arrested for alleged involvement in an corruption case.

21/4/12

Fire rages on rooftop of the five-star Harbour Grand Hong Kong in North Point.

19/4/12

CE Donald Tsang says we need to work more closely as to avoid conflicting policies and decisions.

18/4/12

Yuen Long Tai Tong Lychee Garden occupies Crown land for over 18 years and has not yet dealt with.

17/4/12

Chief Executive-elect Leung Chun-ying proposes zero quota to stop mainland birth tourism.

10/4/12

Premier Wen Jiabao reminded Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying that it was important for politicians to stay away from corruption.

9/4/12

Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office director Wang Guangya said it's time to put aside differences and look forward future.

4/4/12

A woman's decaying body was discovered in a suitcase floating in the sea off Hung Hom.

3/4/12

Kwok brothers claims their innocence and points out the operation of SHKP is not affected.



Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

 

Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang is 42.9 marks, significantly lower than last time. His approval rate now stands at 20%, disapproval rate at 73%, giving a net popularity of negative 53 percentage points. Although Tsang’s overall popularity has not changed much compared with two weeks ago, they are the poorest figures since he became CE.

 

As for CE-elect CY Leung, his latest support rating is 56.5 marks, approval rate 56%, disapproval rate 34%, meaning that his net popularity stands at positive 22 percentage points, further widening his lead over CE Donald Tsang.

 

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Stephen Lam is 38.9 marks, approval rate 13%, disapproval rate 43%, giving a net popularity of negative 30 percentage points. The popularity of FS John Tsang has increased significantly, his support rating is 52.7 marks, approval rate 43%, disapproval rate 19%, giving a net approval rate of positive 24 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 58.0 marks, approval rate dropped to 53% which is his all-time record low, disapproval rate 9%, and his net popularity stands at positive 44 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

 

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rate of 5 of the 12 Directors have gone up, that of 7 Directors have gone down. Among them, only Secretary for Food and Health York Chow has registered change in approval rate beyond sampling error, down by 7 percentage points. Among all the Directors, only Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Education Michael Suen register negative popularity, at negative 7 and 35 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Development Carrie Lam continues to be the most popular Director, while registering her all-time high approval rate.

 

According to POP’s standard, Carrie Lam falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung, Matthew Cheung and Eva Cheng now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of John Tsang, York Chow, Edward Yau, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam, Denise Yue and Gregory So can be labeled as “inconspicuous”, Michael Suen can be labeled as “depressing” and that of Donald Tsang “disastrous”.

 

The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (76%)

 

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong (56%); SJ Wong Yan-lung (53%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (52%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah (51%)

 

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

FS John Tsang Chun-wah (43%); Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok (40%); Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah (36%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (29%); CS Stephen Lam Sui-lung (13%)

 

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (37%, 49%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (34%[18], 46%); Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee (34%[18], 44%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (25%, 40%)

 

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung (53%)

 

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen (73%)

[18] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam is 33.7%, while that of Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue is 33.5%.


Future Release (Tentative)

  • May 22, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top 5 Executive Councillors


| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |