HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, CE-elect CY Leung and principal officialsBack
Press Release on May 15, 2012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special Announcement
The "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) hosted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has already added an "Opinion Forum" page. Users are welcome to share personal opinions on latest social issues, and to win prizes with the credits earned. Current topics of the Forum include the introduction of criminal penalties to the "Copyright Bill", the re-organization of government structure by CY Leung, as well as the review and future development of "3.23 Civil Referendum Project".
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Abstract POP interviewed 1,044 Hong Kong people between May 3 to 10, 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang is 42.9 marks, significantly lower than last time. His approval rate now stands at 20%, disapproval rate at 73%, giving a net popularity of negative 53 percentage points. Although Tsang’s overall popularity has not changed much compared with two weeks ago, they are the poorest figures since he became CE. As for CE-elect CY Leung, his latest support rating is 56.5 marks, approval rate 56%, disapproval rate 34%, meaning that his net popularity stands at positive 22 percentage points, further widening his lead over CE Donald Tsang. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Stephen Lam is 38.9 marks, approval rate 13%, disapproval rate 43%, giving a net popularity of negative 30 percentage points. The popularity of FS John Tsang has increased significantly, his support rating is 52.7 marks, approval rate 43%, disapproval rate 19%, giving a net approval rate of positive 24 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 58.0 marks, approval rate dropped to 53% which is his all-time record low, disapproval rate 9%, and his net popularity stands at positive 44 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rate of 5 of the 12 Directors have gone up, that of 7 Directors have gone down. Among them, only Secretary for Food and Health York Chow has registered change in approval rate beyond sampling error, down by 7 percentage points. Among all the Directors, only Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Education Michael Suen register negative popularity, at negative 7 and 35 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Development Carrie Lam continues to be the most popular Director, while registering her all-time high approval rate. According to POP’s standard, Carrie Lam falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung, Matthew Cheung and Eva Cheng now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of John Tsang, York Chow, Edward Yau, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam, Denise Yue and Gregory So can be labeled as “inconspicuous”, Michael Suen can be labeled as “depressing” and that of Donald Tsang “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of this survey is 1,044 successful interviews, not 1,044 x 64.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, CE-elect Leung Chun-ying, as well as Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and CE-elect CY Leung are summarized as follows:
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. [16] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue is 38.3%, while that of Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan is 37.5%, so that Denise Yue ranks 7th while Ceajer Chan ranks 8th. [17] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam is 33.7%, while that of Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue is 33.5%, so that Raymond Tam ranks 8th while Denise Yue ranks 9th. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 42.9 marks, and 20% supported him as the Chief Executive, his net approval rate is negative 53%. CE-elect Leung Chun-ying scored 56.5 marks, and 56% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is positive 22%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Stephen Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 38.9, 52.7 and 58.0 marks, and 13%, 43% and 53% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are negative 30%, positive 24% and positive 44% respectively.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, attaining 76%. Her net approval rate is positive 70%. The 2nd to 4th places belonged to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, with approval rates 56%, 52% and 51% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 36%, 39% and 37% respectively. Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So and Secretary for Education Michael Suen ranked 5th to 12th, as they gained 40%, 37%, 36%, 34%, 34%, 29%, 25% and 18% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 6%, positive 25%, positive 13%, positive 22%, positive 24%, negative 7%, positive 10% and negative 35%. In other words, Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee, Matthew Cheung and Eva Cheng scored approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from April 2 to 10, 2012 while this survey was conducted from May 3 to 10, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.
Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang is 42.9 marks, significantly lower than last time. His approval rate now stands at 20%, disapproval rate at 73%, giving a net popularity of negative 53 percentage points. Although Tsang’s overall popularity has not changed much compared with two weeks ago, they are the poorest figures since he became CE.
As for CE-elect CY Leung, his latest support rating is 56.5 marks, approval rate 56%, disapproval rate 34%, meaning that his net popularity stands at positive 22 percentage points, further widening his lead over CE Donald Tsang.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Stephen Lam is 38.9 marks, approval rate 13%, disapproval rate 43%, giving a net popularity of negative 30 percentage points. The popularity of FS John Tsang has increased significantly, his support rating is 52.7 marks, approval rate 43%, disapproval rate 19%, giving a net approval rate of positive 24 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 58.0 marks, approval rate dropped to 53% which is his all-time record low, disapproval rate 9%, and his net popularity stands at positive 44 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rate of 5 of the 12 Directors have gone up, that of 7 Directors have gone down. Among them, only Secretary for Food and Health York Chow has registered change in approval rate beyond sampling error, down by 7 percentage points. Among all the Directors, only Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Education Michael Suen register negative popularity, at negative 7 and 35 percentage points respectively. Secretary for Development Carrie Lam continues to be the most popular Director, while registering her all-time high approval rate.
According to POP’s standard, Carrie Lam falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung, Matthew Cheung and Eva Cheng now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of John Tsang, York Chow, Edward Yau, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam, Denise Yue and Gregory So can be labeled as “inconspicuous”, Michael Suen can be labeled as “depressing” and that of Donald Tsang “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
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Future Release (Tentative)
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| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | |