HKU POP releases the latest survey on Taiwan issuesBack
| Press Release on April 3, 2012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special Announcement The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has recently destroyed all personal information collected during the “3.23 Civil Referendum” project, including all HKID numbers and mobile phone numbers, in electronic or paper format. Details will be announced under a separate cover. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract POP interviewed 1,014 Hong Kong people between 22 and 27 March, 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that after the Presidential Election in Taiwan, Hong Kong people’s opposition to the independence of Taiwan remains high, but has slightly dropped to 64% compared to three months ago. People’s confidence in ‘one country, two systems’ applicable to Taiwan has rebounded significantly to 49% after dropping to a 40% low three months ago, giving a positive value of net confidence again. People’s confidence in reunification across the strait, however, has dropped significantly over the past three months, giving a net confidence of negative 6 percentage points, while those supporting Taiwan rejoining the UN goes up to 43%. Further analysis shows that older people are more opposed to Taiwan’s independence, and are more confident of cross-strait reunification. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rates of the surveys are 63%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of the survey is 1,014 successful interviews, not 1,014 x 62.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [3] ?The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". [4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures. [5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on various Taiwan issues. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest surveys:
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [9]Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
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Indepth Analysis In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents' view on the Taiwan independence issue by age:
[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
Herewith further analysis of respondents' confidence in cross-strait reunification by age:
[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.
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Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from December 6 to 13, 2011 while this survey was conducted from March 22 to 27, 2012. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that after the Presidential Election in Taiwan, Hong Kong people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan remains high, but has slightly dropped to 64% compared to three months ago. People's confidence in ‘one country, two systems' applicable to Taiwan has rebounded significantly to 49% after dropping to a 40% low three months ago, giving a positive value of net confidence again. People's confidence in reunification across the strait, however, has dropped significantly over the past three months, giving a net confidence of negative 6 percentage points, while those supporting Taiwan rejoining the UN goes up to 43%. Further analysis shows that older people are more opposed to Taiwan's independence, and are more confident of cross-strait reunification. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily'." | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Future Release (Tentative)
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| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
