HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang andthe HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on March 29, 2012

Special Announcement

The "CE Election Guessing Game" hosted by the "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) of the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong was closed at zero hour on March 25 the election day. Final guesses, which are not too different from the actual election result, stand at Leung Chun-ying 596 votes, Henry Tang 352 votes and Albert Ho 142 votes. Winners of the game will be announced soon.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,020 Hong Kong people between 16 and 21 March 2012 before the CE election by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the latest support rating of CE Donald Tsang is 45.3 marks, significantly up by 1.8 marks compared to the last survey. His latest approval rate stands at 25%, disapproval rate at 69%, giving a net popularity of negative 44 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has also improved significantly compared to one month ago. Its satisfaction rate has gone up by 7 percentage points to 27% while dissatisfaction rate dropped by 10 percentage points to 43%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 16 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that people in the middle class stratum are more critical of the SAR Government's performance, with a disapproval rate exceeding 50%, the highest among all social strata. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, three among five register positive values, they are: relation with the Central Government at positive 20 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at positive 8 percentage points and maintaining economic prosperity at positive 6 percentage points. The two items that register negative values are developing democracy at negative 24 percentage points, and improving people's livelihood at negative 40 percentage points with a dissatisfaction rate close to 60%, rendering it an obvious area for immediate improvement. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 63%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,020 successful interviews, not 1,020 x 62.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
16-21/3/2012	1,020	62.8%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	12-17/1/12	1-6/2/12	20-22/2/12	2-7/3/12	16-21/3/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,020	1,000	1,012	1,001	1,020	--
Overall response rate	64.8%	64.0%	65.5%	66.6%	62.8%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	49.2	48.3	46.6^[9]	43.5^[9]	45.3+/-1.4	+1.8^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	26%	25%	29%^[9]	25%^[9]	25+/-3%	--
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	66%	67%	64%	71%^[9]	69+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	-40%	-42%	-35%	-46%	-44%	+2%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	26%	--	20%^[9]	--	27+/-4%	+7%^[9]
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	45%	--	53%^[9]	--	43+/-4%	-10%^[9]
Net satisfaction rate	-19%	--	-33%	--	-16%	+17%
Mean value^[8]	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=552)	--	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=573)	--	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=572)	+0.2^[9]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 582.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 45.3 marks, and 25% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 27% were satisfied, whereas 43% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.7, meaning in between "half-half" and "quite dissatisfied".

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	14-23/3/11	23-29/6/11	13-20/9/11	14-28/12/11	16-21/3/12	Latest Change^[13]
Sample base^[13]	549-617	541-626	514-635	504-529	552-681	--
Overall response rate	63.1%	68.7%	65.5%	65.9%	62.8%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding]	Finding	Finding & error^[10]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[11]	47%^[12]	39%^[12]	39%	46%^[12]	44+/-4%	-2%
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	19%	25%^[12]	28%	26%	24+/-4%	-2%
Net satisfaction rate	+28%	+14%	+11%	+20%	+20%	--
Mean value^[11]	3.3+/-0.1 (base=563)	3.1+/-0.1^[12] (base =524)	3.1+/-0.1 (base =580)	3.2+/-0.1 (base =504)	3.2+/-0.1 (base =522)	--
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[11]	40%	31%^[12]	27%	32%^[12]	41+/-4%	+9%^[12]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	29%	39%^[12]	43%	41%	33+/-4%	-8%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	+11%	-8%	-16%	-9%	+8%	+17%
Mean value^[11]	3.1+/-0.1 (base =586)	2.8+/-0.1^[12] (base =538)	2.7+/-0.1 (base =494)	2.8+/-0.1 (base =506)	3.0+/-0.1 (base =538)	+0.2^[12]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[11]	32%	28%	31%	32%	40+/-4%	+8%^[12]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	35%	44%^[12]	39%^[12]	38%	34+/-4%	-4%
Net satisfaction rate	-3%	-16%	-8%	-6%	+6%	+12%
Mean value^[11]	2.9+/-0.1 (base =528)	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (base =535)	2.8+/-0.1 (base =627)	2.8+/-0.1 (base =529)	3.0+/-0.1 (base =602)	+0.2^[12]
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[11]	27%	25%	22%	26%	25+/-3%	-1%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	43%	47%	50%	50%	49+/-4%	-1%
Net satisfaction rate	-16%	-22%	-28%	-24%	-24%	--
Mean value^[11]	2.7+/-0.1 (base =575)	2.6+/-0.1 (base =596)	2.5+/-0.1 (base =568)	2.6+/-0.1 (base =517)	2.6+/-0.1 (base =656)	--
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[11]	18%	16%	18%	20%	19+/-3%	-1%
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	53%	57%	57%	58%	59+/-4%	+1%
Net satisfaction rate	-35%	-41%	-39%	-38%	-40%	-2%
Mean value^[11]	2.5+/-0.1 (base =585)	2.3+/-0.1^[12] (base =547)	2.4+/-0.1 (base =601)	2.4+/-0.1 (base =516)	2.4+/-0.1 (base =632)	--

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[13] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 44%. The government's performance in protecting human rights and freedom followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 41%. The government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity also attained a satisfaction percentage of 40%. Finally, a respective of 25% and 19% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in developing democracy as well as improving people's livelihood. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.2, 3.0, 3.0, 2.6 and 2.4 respectively, meaning close to "half-half" or "quite dissatisfied" in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents to classify themselves which one of the five social strata they belonged to. The options were: upper, upper-middle, middle-middle, lower-middle and lower stratum or grassroots. According to the choice of respondents, we grouped them into relatively upper, relatively middle and relatively lower strata, or in short form upper, middle and lower strata. Each stratum contains about one-third of the sample. The following table shows the mapping between respondents' choice and their final grouping:

Self-reported social stratum	Social stratum group
Upper stratum	Relatively upper stratum (about one-third)
Upper-middle stratum
Middle-middle stratum
Lower-middle stratum	Relatively middle stratum (about one-third)
Lower stratum or grassroots	Relatively lower stratum (about one-third)
Don't know/hard to say/refuse to answer	Unclassified

Herewith further analysis by respondents' social strata:

Date of survey: 16-21/3/2012		Upper class	Middle class	Lower class	Overall sample
Satisfaction / dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[14]	Satisfaction	29+/-6% (58)	21+/-6% (42)	32+/-7% (51)	27+/-4% (151)
	Half-half	30+/-7% (60)	26+/-6% (52)	27+/-7% (43)	28+/-4% (155)
	Dissatisfaction	39+/-7% (77)	52+/-7% (104)	38+/-8% (60)	43+/-4% (242)
	Don't know/ Hard to say	2+/-2% (3)	0+/-0% (1)	3+/-3% (5)	2+/-1% (9)
	Total	100% (198)	100% (200)	100% (158)	100% (556)

[14] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 14 to 28 December, 2011 while this survey was conducted from 16 to 21 March, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

20/3/12	Media continues to report to the Chief Executive candidate elections.
14/3/12	Premier Wen Jiabao speaks about Hong Kong's chief executive election for the first time.
1/3/12	CE Donald Tsang apologizes for incidents of conflict of interest.
26/2/12	CE Donald Tsang announces setup an independent committee to review existing regulatory frameworks and procedures.
1/2/12	The Financial Secretary John Tsang announces the 2012-13 Budget.
10/1/12	The Environment Bureau launches a three-month public consultation on the introduction of charging to reduce the generation of solid waste.
9/1/12	Hong Kong and Guangdong today approve the 2012 Work Plan of the Framework Agreement on Hong Kong-Guangdong Co-operation.
4/1/12	The government lists 25 sites reclamation and man-made islands for reclamation to create the land bank.
30/12/11	CLP announces it will further reduce its planned increase from 7.4% to 4.9%.
16/12/11	Hong Kong Electric tends to reduce the increase magnitude of households electricity fee.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our latest survey conducted in mid-March before the CE election shows that the latest support rating of CE Donald Tsang is 45.3 marks, significantly up by 1.8 marks compared to the last survey. His latest approval rate stands at 25%, disapproval rate at 69%, giving a net popularity of negative 44 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has also improved significantly compared to one month ago. Its satisfaction rate has gone up by 7 percentage points to 27% while dissatisfaction rate dropped by 10 percentage points to 43%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 16 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that people in the middle class stratum are more critical of the SAR Government's performance, with a disapproval rate exceeding 50%, the highest among all social strata. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, three among five register positive values, they are: relation with the Central Government at positive 20 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at positive 8 percentage points and maintaining economic prosperity at positive 6 percentage points. The two items that register negative values are developing democracy at negative 24 percentage points, and improving people's livelihood at negative 40 percentage points with a dissatisfaction rate close to 60%, rendering it an obvious area for immediate improvement. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

April 3, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Survey on Taiwan issues