HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

Press Release on March 13, 2012

Special Announcement

1) The “3.23 Civil Referendum Project” and “3.21 Mock Civil Referendum Project” initiated by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will proceed as planned. POP now appeals to members of the public to provide free venues for setting up polling stations, including vehicles which can be used for setting up mobile polling stations. People can click on our PopVote website at http://popvote.hk then “tangible support” and then leave their contacts. Also, as of 1pm today, the total amount of donation received is around HKD741,000.

2) The “CE Election Guessing Game” hosted by the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk) of POP has already been launched, users can now make guesses on the result of the Chief Executive Election due to take place on March 25, until 00:00AM on the election day. The latest situation is that Leung Chun-ying leads Henry Tang and Albert Ho, with guestimates of 502, 415 and 161 votes respectively.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong people between March 2 to 7, 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has dropped 3.1 marks to 43.5, which is record low since he became CE. His approval rate now stands at 25%, disapproval rate at 71%, giving a net popularity of negative 46 percentage points. The significant drop in CE’s popularity is probably related to his suspected conflicts of interest. As for the Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, the rating of CS Stephen Lam has dropped slightly, but his approval rate has rebounded significantly. His latest support rating is 38.0 marks, approval rate 20%, disapproval rate 37%, giving a net popularity of negative 17 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his support rating has not changed much, while his approval rate has jumped 7 percentage points to 41%. The net approval rate of John Tsang now stands at positive 17 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 60.5 marks, approval rate 62%, disapproval rate 6%, and his net popularity stands at positive 56 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, only the approval rate of Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee has gone down, that of all other 11 Directors have gone up. Among them, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam and Secretary for Education Michael Suen have registered changes in approval rates beyond sampling error, up by 8, 7, 6, 6, 5 and 5 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Michael Suen registers negative popularity at negative 23 percentage points. Carrie Lam continues to be the most popular Director, her approval rate also registers all-time record high. According to POP’s standard, Carrie Lam falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Wong Yan-lung, Ambrose Lee, Matthew Cheung and Eva Cheng now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of York Chow, John Tsang, Edward Yau, Tsang Tak-sing, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Denise Yue, Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam and Gregory So can be labeled as “inconspicuous”, and that of Donald Tsang “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,001 successful interviews, not 1,001 x 66.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.0 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
2-7/3/2012	1,001	66.6%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
1,300	+/- 2.8 %	1,350	+/- 2.7 %
1,200	+/- 2.9 %	1,250	+/- 2.8 %
1,100	+/- 3.0 %	1,150	+/- 3.0 %
1,000	+/- 3.2 %	1,050	+/- 3.1 %
900	+/- 3.3 %	950	+/- 3.2 %
800	+/- 3.5 %	850	+/- 3.4 %
700	+/- 3.8 %	750	+/- 3.7 %
600	+/- 4.1 %	650	+/- 3.9 %
500	+/- 4.5 %	550	+/- 4.3 %
400	+/- 5.0 %	450	+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	3-6/1/12	12-17/1/12	1-6/2/12	20-22/2/12	2-7/3/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,007	1,020	1,000	1,012	1,001	--
Overall response rate	65.1%	64.8%	64.0%	65.5%	66.6%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[8]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	48.0	49.2	48.3	46.6^[9]	43.5+/-1.6	-3.1^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	25%^[9]	26%	25%	29%^[9]	25+/-3%	-4%^[9]
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	68%	66%	67%	64%	71+/-3%	+7%^[9]
Net approval rate	-43%	-40%	-42%	-35%	-46%	-11%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	1-5/12/11	3-6/1/12	1/2/12	1-6/2/12	2-7/3/12	Latest change ^[10]
Sample base^[10]	516-542	540-587	1,015	597-618	574-583	--
Overall response rate	67.7%	65.1%	71.1%	64.0%	66.6%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[11]	--
Ratings of CS Stephen Lam	38.5	36.4	--	38.6^[12]	38.0+/-2.0	-0.6
Vote of confidence in CS Stephen Lam	16%^[12]	15%	--	13%	20+/-3%	+7%^[12]
Vote of no confidence in CS Stephen Lam	39%^[12]	41%	--	40%	37+/-4%	-3%
Net approval rate	-23%	-26%	--	-27%	-17%	+10%
Ratings of FS John Tsang	51.0	50.6	54.1^[12]	51.0^[12]	50.9+/-1.8	-0.1
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang	33%	37%	29%^[12]	34%^[12]	41+/-4%	+7%^[12]
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang	26%^[12]	24%	26%	25%	24+/-4%	-1%
Net approval rate	7%	13%	3%	9%	17%	+8%
Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong	59.4	57.7^[12]	--	58.6	60.5+/-1.6	+1.9^[12]
Vote of confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	54%^[12]	54%	--	57%	62+/-4%	+5%^[12]
Vote of no confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	7%^[12]	8%	--	9%	6+/-2%	-3%^[12]
Net approval rate	47%	46%	--	48%	56%	+8%

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	3-6/1/12		1-6/2/12		2-7/3/12		Latest change
Sample base ^[13]	517-576		537-632		504-658		--
Overall response rate	65.1%		64.0%		66.6%		--
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer	Base	%	Base	%	Base	% & error ^[14]	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	550	63%	632	62%	525	67+/-4%	+5%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	550	12%	632	11%	525	8+/-2%	-3%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	51%	--	51%	--	59%	+8%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	535	56%	537	58%	606	57+/-4%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	535	14%	537	16%	606	15+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	--	42%	--	42%	--	42%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	547	50%	601	49%	599	52+/-4%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	547	11%	601	13%	599	12+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	--	39%	--	36%	--	40%	+4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng	561	46%	561	49%	562	50+/-4%	+1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng	561	19%^[15]	561	17%	562	16+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	--	27%	--	32%	--	34%	+2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	517	50%	584	43%^[15]	658	46+/-4%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	517	24%	584	29%^[15]	658	28+/-4%	-1%
Net approval rate	--	26%	--	14%	--	18%	+4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	570	32%	598	33%	598	40+/-4%^[16]	+7%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	570	9%	598	10%	598	6+/-2%	-4%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	23%	--	23%	--	34%	+11%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau	530	37%	557	34%	557	40+/-4%^[16]	+6%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau	530	25%^[15]	557	24%	557	22+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	--	12%	--	10%	--	18%	+8%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	557	33%^[15]	583	34%	504	36+/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	557	13%	583	12%	504	12+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	--	20%	--	22%	--	24%	+2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam	545	22%	574	26%	605	34+/-4%	+8%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam	545	11%	574	12%	605	10+/-2%	-2%
Net approval rate	--	11%	--	14%	--	24%	+10%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	544	24%	611	25%	590	29+/-4%	+4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	544	37%	611	34%	590	28+/-4%	-6%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	-13%	--	-9%	--	1%	+10%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	576	20%^[15]	616	21%	649	27+/-3%	+6%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	576	15%	616	16%	649	15+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	--	5%	--	5%	--	12%	+7%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	539	22%	561	18%^[15]	592	23+/-3%	+5%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	539	49%	561	52%	592	46+/-4%	-6%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	-27%	--	-34%	--	-23%	+11%

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue is 40.0%, while that of Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau is 39.6%, so that Denise Yue ranks 6th while Edward Yau ranks 7th.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 43.5 marks, and 25% supported him as the Chief Executive, his net approval rate is negative 46%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Stephen Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 38.0, 50.9 and 60.5 marks, and 20%, 41% and 62% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are negative 17%, positive 17% and positive 56% respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, attaining 67%. Her net approval rate is positive 59%. The 2nd to 5th places belonged to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, with approval rates 57%, 52%, 50% and 46% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 42%, 40%, 34% and 18% respectively. Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So and Secretary for Education Michael Suen ranked 6th to 12th, as they gained 40%, 40%, 36%, 34%, 29%, 27% and 23% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 34%, positive 18%, positive 24%, positive 24%, positive 1%, positive 12% and negative 23%. In other words, Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee, Matthew Cheung and Eva Cheng scored approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from February 1 to 6, 2012 while this survey was conducted from March 2 to 7, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

1/3/12	CE Donald Tsang apologises for incidents of conflict of interest.
28/2/12	Member of the Legislative Council Paul Tse proposes to submit a motion in the Legislative Council to impeach CE Donald Tsang.
26/2/12	CE Donald Tsang announced setup an independent committee to review existing regulatory frameworks and procedures.
25/2/12	Media continues to report multiple incidents of conflict of interest related to CE Donald Tsang.
24/2/12	Chief Executive candidate Leung Chun-ying involved in the West Kowloon interests to declare storm.
23/2/12	Media continues to report multiple incidents of conflict of interest related to CE Donald Tsang.
22/2/12	CE Donald Tsang defends himself about recent trips invited by rich friends.
9/2/12	Leung Chun-ying was accused of failing to declare a conflict of interest in a project competition for the West Kowloon cultural hub.
1/2/12	The Financial Secretary John Tsang announces the 2012-13 Budget.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has dropped 3.1 marks to 43.5, which is record low since he became CE. His approval rate now stands at 25%, disapproval rate at 71%, giving a net popularity of negative 46 percentage points. The significant drop in CE’s popularity is probably related to his suspected conflicts of interest.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, the rating of CS Stephen Lam has dropped slightly, but his approval rate has rebounded significantly. His latest support rating is 38.0 marks, approval rate 20%, disapproval rate 37%, giving a net popularity of negative 17 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his support rating has not changed much, while his approval rate has jumped 7 percentage points to 41%. The net approval rate of John Tsang now stands at positive 17 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 60.5 marks, approval rate 62%, disapproval rate 6%, and his net popularity stands at positive 56 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, only the approval rate of Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee has gone down, that of all other 11 Directors have gone up. Among them, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam and Secretary for Education Michael Suen have registered changes in approval rates beyond sampling error, up by 8, 7, 6, 6, 5 and 5 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Michael Suen registers negative popularity at negative 23 percentage points. Carrie Lam continues to be the most popular Director, her approval rate also registers all-time record high.

According to POP’s standard, Carrie Lam falls under the category of “ideal” performer, Wong Yan-lung, Ambrose Lee, Matthew Cheung and Eva Cheng now fall under the category of “successful” performer. The performance of York Chow, John Tsang, Edward Yau, Tsang Tak-sing, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as “mediocre”, that of Denise Yue, Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam and Gregory So can be labeled as “inconspicuous”, and that of Donald Tsang “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (67%)

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

SJ Wong Yan-lung (62%); Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong (57%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (52%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah (50%^[17])

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok (46%); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (41%); Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah (40%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (29%); Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung (23%); CS Stephen Lam Sui-lung (20%)

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee (40%, 46%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (36%, 48%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (34%, 44%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (27%, 42%)

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

None

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen (71%)

[17] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng is 50.3%

Future Release (Tentative)

March 20, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Budget second follow-up survey