HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

Press Release on February 14, 2012

Special Announcement

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong intends to run a "Civil Referendum Project" on March 23, 2012, to let the general public express their support towards different candidates of the fourth Chief Executive election. Funding for the project is now being raised via the "PopVote" website at http://popvote.hk. As of 1pm today, the total amount of donation received is around HKD103,000. Shall the project not proceed due to insufficient funding, all donations will be used according to the wish of the donors, details will be announced later.

On the other hand, the "CE Nomination Guessing Game" hosted by the "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) of POP has just ended. Users' final guesses stand at Henry Tang 529 nominations, Leung Chun-ying 238 nominations, and Albert Ho 185 nominations. The final winners will be determined by the actual result of the nomination.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong people between February 1 to 6, 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has slightly dropped to 48.3 marks. His approval rate now stands at 25%, disapproval rate at 67%, giving a net popularity of negative 42 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, the rating of CS Stephen Lam has rebounded, but his approval rate has dropped. His latest support rating is 38.6 marks, approval rate 13%, disapproval rate 40%, giving a net popularity of negative 27 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his support rating has receded 3.1 marks since the Budget Day, down to 51.0 marks, while his approval rate has rebounded by 5 percentage points to 34%. The net approval rate of John Tsang now stands at positive 9 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 58.6 marks, approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 9%, and his net popularity stands at positive 48 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 7 Directors have gone up, while 5 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for Food and Health York Chow and Secretary for Education Michael Suen have registered changes in approval rates beyond sampling error, down by 7 and 4 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Tsang Tak-sing and Michael Suen register negative popularity, at negative 9 and 34 percentage points respectively. Carrie Lam continues to be the most popular Director. According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee and Wong Yan-lung now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Eva Cheng, York Chow, Edward Yau, John Tsang, Tsang Tak-sing, and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue, Raymond Tam and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", that of Michael Suen "depressing" and that of Donald Tsang "disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 64%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,000 successful interviews, not 1,000 x 64.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
1-6/2/2012	1,000	64.0%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
1,300	+/- 2.8 %	1,350	+/- 2.7 %
1,200	+/- 2.9 %	1,250	+/- 2.8 %
1,100	+/- 3.0 %	1,150	+/- 3.0 %
1,000	+/- 3.2 %	1,050	+/- 3.1 %
900	+/- 3.3 %	950	+/- 3.2 %
800	+/- 3.5 %	850	+/- 3.4 %
700	+/- 3.8 %	750	+/- 3.7 %
600	+/- 4.1 %	650	+/- 3.9 %
500	+/- 4.5 %	550	+/- 4.3 %
400	+/- 5.0 %	450	+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	1-5/12/11	14-28/12/11	3-6/1/12	12-17/1/12	1-6/2/2012	Latest change
Sample base	1,009	1,035	1,007	1,020	1,000	--
Overall response rate	67.7%	65.9%	65.1%	64.8%	64.0%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[8]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	50.2	49.0	48.0	49.2	48.3+/-1.3	-0.9
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	26%	21%^[9]	25%^[9]	26%	25+/-3%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	65%	71%^[9]	68%	66%	67+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	-39%	-50%	-43%	-40%	-42%	-2%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	31/10-9/11/11	1-5/12/11	3-6/1/12	1/2/12	1-6/2/2012	Latest change ^[10]
Sample base^[10]	526-579	516-542	540-587	1,015	597-618	--
Overall response rate	64.8%	67.7%	65.1%	71.1%	64.0%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[11]	--
Ratings of CS Stephen Lam	40.4	38.5	36.4	--	38.6+/-1.9	+2.2^[12]
Vote of confidence in CS Stephen Lam	22%	16%^[12]	15%	--	13+/-3%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in CS Stephen Lam	32%	39%^[12]	41%	--	40+/-4%	-1%
Net approval rate	-10%	-23%	-26%	--	-27%	-1%
Ratings of FS John Tsang	51.7	51.0	50.6	54.1	51.0+/-1.6	-3.1^[12]
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang	35%	33%	37%	29%	34+/-4%	+5%^[12]
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang	20%	26%^[12]	24%	26%	25+/-4%	-1%
Net approval rate	15%	7%	13%	3%	9%	+6%
Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong	60.6	59.4	57.7^[12]	--	58.6+/-1.4	+0.9
Vote of confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	63%	54%^[12]	54%	--	57+/-4%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	3%^[12]	7%^[12]	8%	--	9+/-2%	+1%
Net approval rate	60%	47%	46%	--	48%	+2%

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	1-5/12/11		3-6/1/12		1-6/2/2012		Latest change
Sample base ^[13]	505-579		517-576		537-632		--
Overall response rate	67.7%		65.1%		64.0%		--
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer	Base	%	Base	%	Base	% & error ^[14]	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	527	62%	550	63%	632	62+/-4%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	527	10%	550	12%	632	11+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	--	52%	--	51%	--	51%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	511	55%^[15]	535	56%	537	58+/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	511	13%	535	14%	537	16+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate	--	42%	--	42%	--	42%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	509	48%	547	50%^[16]	601	49+/-4%^[18]	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	509	14%^[15]	547	11%	601	13+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate	--	34%	--	39%	--	36%	-3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng	579	46%	561	46%	561	49+/-4%^[18]	+3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng	579	14%	561	19%^[15]	561	17+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	--	32%	--	27%	--	32%	+5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	506	47%	517	50%^[16]	584	43+/-4%	-7%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	506	26%	517	24%	584	29+/-4%	+5%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	21%	--	26%	--	14%	-12%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	532	39%	557	33%^[15]	583	34+/-4%^[19]	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	532	11%^[15]	557	13%	583	12+/-3%	-1%
Net approval rate	--	28%	--	20%	--	22%	+2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau	507	36%^[15]	530	37%	557	34+/-4%^[19]	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau	507	18%^[15]	530	25%^[15]	557	24+/-4%	-1%
Net approval rate	--	18%	--	12%	--	10%	-2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	558	31%	570	32%	598	33+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	558	10%	570	9%	598	10+/-2%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	21%	--	23%	--	23%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam	522	25%	545	22%^[17]	574	26+/-4%	+4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam	522	9%	545	11%	574	12+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	16%	--	11%	--	14%	+3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	505	23%	544	24%	611	25+/-3%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	505	33%^[15]	544	37%	611	34+/-4%	-3%
Net approval rate	--	-10%	--	-13%	--	-9%	+4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	532	15%^[15]	576	20%^[15]	616	21+/-3%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	532	15%	576	15%	616	16+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	0%	--	5%	--	5%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	539	22%	539	22%^[17]	561	18+/-3%	-4%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	539	45%	539	49%	561	52+/-4%	+3%
Net approval rate	--	-23%	--	-27%	--	-34%	-7%

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung is 50.2%, while that of Secretary for Food and Health York Chow is 49.7%, so that Matthew Cheung ranks 3rd while York Chow ranks 4th.
[17] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam is 22.3%, while that of Secretary for Education Michael Suen is 22.2%, so that Raymond Tam ranks 10th while Michael Suen ranks 11th.
[18] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung is 48.9%, while that of Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng is 48.5%, so that Matthew Cheung ranks 3rd while Eva Cheng ranks 4th.
[19] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan is 34.0%, while that of Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau is 33.9%, so that Ceajer Chan ranks 6th while Edward Yau ranks 7th.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 48.3 marks, and 25% supported him as the Chief Executive, his net approval rate is negative 42%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Stephen Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 38.6, 51.0 and 58.6 marks, and 13%, 34% and 57% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are negative 27%, positive 9% and positive 48% respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, attaining 62%. Her net approval rate is positive 51%. The 2nd to 5th places belonged to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, with approval rates 58%, 49%, 49% and 43% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 42%, 36%, 32% and 14% respectively. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So and Secretary for Education Michael Suen ranked 6th to 12th, as they gained 34%, 34%, 33%, 26%, 25%, 21% and 18% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 22%, positive 10%, positive 23%, positive 14%, negative 9%, positive 5% and negative 34%. In other words, only Carrie Lam and Ambrose Lee scored approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from January 3 to 6, 2012 while this survey was conducted from February 1 to 6, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

1/2/12	The Financial Secretary John Tsang announces the 2012-13 Budget.
29/1/12	Financial Secretary John Tsang will announce the Budget speech on 1st February.
24/1/12	Chairman of Heung Yee Kuk Mr Lau divination at Che Kung Temple.
21/1/12	Beijing University professor Kong Qingdong comment many Hong Kong people are dogs.
14/1/12	Taiwan's president, Ma Ying-jeou, was elected to a second term.
10/1/12	The Environment Bureau launched a three-month public consultation on the introduction of charging to reduce the generation of solid waste.
9/1/12	Hong Kong and Guangdong today approved the 2012 Work Plan of the Framework Agreement on Hong Kong-Guangdong Co-operation.
4/1/12	The government has listed 25 sites reclamation and man-made islands for reclamation to create the land bank.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has slightly dropped to 48.3 marks. His approval rate now stands at 25%, disapproval rate at 67%, giving a net popularity of negative 42 percentage points.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, the rating of CS Stephen Lam has rebounded, but his approval rate has dropped. His latest support rating is 38.6 marks, approval rate 13%, disapproval rate 40%, giving a net popularity of negative 27 percentage points. As for FS John Tsang, his support rating has receded 3.1 marks since the Budget Day, down to 51.0 marks, while his approval rate has rebounded by 5 percentage points to 34%. The net approval rate of John Tsang now stands at positive 9 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 58.6 marks, approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 9%, and his net popularity stands at positive 48 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 7 Directors have gone up, while 5 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for Food and Health York Chow and Secretary for Education Michael Suen have registered changes in approval rates beyond sampling error, down by 7 and 4 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Tsang Tak-sing and Michael Suen register negative popularity, at negative 9 and 34 percentage points respectively. Carrie Lam continues to be the most popular Director.

According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee and Wong Yan-lung now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Eva Cheng, York Chow, Edward Yau, John Tsang, Tsang Tak-sing, and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue, Raymond Tam and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", that of Michael Suen "depressing" and that of Donald Tsang "disastrous".

The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

None

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (62%); Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong (58%); SJ Wong Yan-lung (57%)

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (49%^[20]); Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah (49%^[20]); Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok (43%); Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah (34%^[20]); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (34%^[20]); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (25%); CS Stephen Lam Sui-lung (13%)

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (34%, 46%); Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee (33%, 43%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (26%, 39%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (21%, 37%)

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung (52%)

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen (67%)

[20] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung is 48.9% while that of Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng is 48.5%; the approval rate of Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau is 33.9% while that of FS John Tsang is 33.6%.

Future Release (Tentative)

February 21, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Freedom, social and legal indicators