HKU POP releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack
| Press Release on February 9, 2012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special Announcement The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong intends to run a "Civil Referendum Project" on March 23, 2012, to let the general public express their support towards different candidates of the fourth Chief Executive election. The activity has three objectives, namely, 1) to integrate with the results of public opinion surveys to form a comprehensive reference for the public and the election committee, 2) to construct a civil society by promoting civil participation, and 3) to demonstrate the electronic voting system. Funding for the project is now being raised, via the "PopVote" website at http://popvote.hk. As of 1pm today, the total amount of donation received is around HKD5,000. On the other hand, the "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) hosted by the POP is now running the "CE Nomination Guessing Game" to measure users' intelligent guesses. The latest situation is that Henry Tang leads Leung Chun-ying and Albert Ho, with guestimates of 571, 234 and 194 nominations respectively. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract POP conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of Legislative Councillors in mid to end of January, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest surveys show that compared to three months ago, there are ups and downs in the popularity of "top 10" best known Legislative Councillors. In terms of familiarity, James To who occupied the second position last time has dropped out of the list while Tam Yiu-chung has come back again to occupy the seventh place. In terms of absolute ratings, that of Wong Yuk-man, Leung Kwok-hung, Alan Leong and Emily Lau have dropped 8.2, 6.1, 1.2 and 0.7 marks respectively. However, only that of Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung have gone beyond sampling errors. Wong's rating is at record low since 2008, probably due to his involvement in a case of violence during his recent trip to observe the Taiwan elections. In terms of relative rankings, Regina Ip continues to rank first, Jasper Tsang and Audrey Eu both move up one position to rank second and third. Lee Cheuk-yan goes up 3 places to rank fourth. Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man swap positions to rank ninth and tenth, while the relative rankings of all others remaining on the list have not changed. It should be noted however that our list of "top 10" only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the "top 10" list by design. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.9 and +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the rating survey is 64%. Points to note: [1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,046 successful interviews, not 1,046 x 65.5% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,014 successful interviews, not 1,014x 64.0% response rate. [3] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the rating figures. [4] When quoting the rating figures of this survey, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. [5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of the top ten Legislative Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011. Herewith the contact information:
The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid January. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. As a result, Wong Yuk-man, Leung Kwok-hung, Albert Ho, Emily Lau and Audrey Eu were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in end of January, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:
[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available. [9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. [10] In two decimal places, the rating of James To is 55.39 and that of Jasper Tsang is 55.36. [11] In two decimal places, the rating of Alan Leong is 52.32 and that of Tam Yiu-chung is 52.26.
The latest survey showed that Regina Ip was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 60.6 marks. Jasper Tsang, Audrey Eu and Lee Cheuk-yan ranked the 2nd to 4th with 56.1, 56.0 and 53.6 marks correspondingly. The 5th to 8th ranks went to Emily Lau, Alan Leong, Tam Yiu-chung and Albert Ho who attained 53.0, 52.3, 52.3 and 50.6 marks respectively. Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man ranked the 9th to 10th, attaining 27.3 and 26.4 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 55.9 marks, while that for the top 10 was 48.8 marks. For this latest survey, Albert Chan and Tanya Chan obtained support ratings of 34.0 and 52.7 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:
[13] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that 9 Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Regina Ip in the top rank achieving an average rating of 58.5 marks, Audrey Eu, Alan Leong, Jasper Tsang, Emily Lau, Albert Ho and Lee Cheuk-yan who ranked the 2nd to 7th and attained 57.1, 55.0, 54.6, 52.9, 51.9 and 51.3 marks correspondingly. Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung ranked the 8th and 9th, with a respective of 32.9 and 32.2 marks. Tam Yiu-chung has been on the list for two times, attaining 52.2 marks on average, and ranked the 10th. James To and Albert Chan have been on the list for one time and ranked the 11th to 12th, attaining 55.4 and 39.8 marks correspondingly. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP. For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 8 to 11 October, 2011 while this survey was conducted from 26 to 31 January, 2012. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, there are ups and downs in the popularity of "top 10" best known Legislative Councillors. In terms of familiarity, James To who occupied the second position last time has dropped out of the list while Tam Yiu-chung has come back again to occupy the seventh place. In terms of absolute ratings, that of Wong Yuk-man, Leung Kwok-hung, Alan Leong and Emily Lau have dropped 8.2, 6.1, 1.2 and 0.7 marks respectively. However, only that of Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung have gone beyond sampling errors. Wong's rating is at record low since 2008, probably due to his involvement in a case of violence during his recent trip to observe the Taiwan elections. In terms of relative rankings, Regina Ip continues to rank first, Jasper Tsang and Audrey Eu both move up one position to rank second and third. Lee Cheuk-yan goes up 3 places to rank fourth. Leung Kwok-hung and Wong Yuk-man swap positions to rank ninth and tenth, while the relative rankings of all others remaining on the list have not changed. It should be noted however that our list of "top 10" only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the "top 10" list by design. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of these popularity ratings using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page." | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Future Release (Tentative)
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| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | |
