HKU POP releases the first Budget follow-up surveyBack
| Press Release on February 7, 2012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Special Announcement | Abstract | Background | Latest Figures | Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special Announcement
The "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) hosted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong is now running the "CE Nomination Guessing Game", to measure users' intelligent guesses. The latest situation is that Henry Tang leads Leung Chun-ying and Albert Ho, with guestimates of 611, 243 and 201 nominations respectively.
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Abstract People's instant reaction to the Budget in the first night was quite positive, with 38% satisfied, 26% dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction rate of 12 percentage points. Satisfaction rating was 57.0 marks. One to two days later, after widespread coverage by the media, between February 2 and 3, POP interviewed 504 Hong Kong people again by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The latest survey shows that satisfaction rate slightly increases to 39%, dissatisfaction rate also goes up to 30%, net satisfaction rate narrows down to positive 9 percentage points, while satisfaction rating also goes down to 52.6 marks. This shows people's response turned slightly more negative, which is normal, and this year's development is not particularly serious. Of course, how people's reaction will change after knowing even more about the Budget remains to be revealed by our follow-up survey to be conducted weeks later. According to our latest survey, relatively more people feel that that the relief measures suggested by the FS this year are not enough, that the Budget cannot face the risk of the external environment, and that the Budget has appealed to the middle class but ignored the grassroots. However, 55% are satisfied with this year's arrangement of not granting $6,000 to each citizen. Also, 56% consider Hong Kong's tax system to be fair, but 70% consider the distribution of wealth to be unreasonable, and only 33% are satisfied with the government's fiscal policies. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures is +/-1.8. The response rate of the survey is 64%. Points to note: [1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of this survey is 504 successful interviews, not 504 x 63.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". [4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. [5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Background
In free and democratic societies, instant surveys are indispensable sources of free information. Combined with appropriate follow-up surveys, and in parallel to expert analyses, they give a multi-dimensional picture of opinion development. They are an important part of a society's interactive development. In the United States, for example, every year after the President gives a "State of the Union" to Congress, their media would conduct instant polls to measure public opinion. For example again, whenever there are candidate debates in Taiwan and United States during presidential elections, which Hong Kong people seem to know more, there will be instant polls to gauge instant changes in candidate popularity. As a matter of fact, these professional instant polls are everywhere in advanced societies, and they are all completed within a day.
Since 1992, HKUPOP has already been conducting Policy Address instant surveys every year. From 1998 onwards, we expanded our instant surveys to cover the Budget Talks. Starting from 2008, we further enhanced our operation by splitting up our usual exercise into two rounds. In our first survey, we measure people's overall appraisal of the Budget, their rating of the Budget, their change in confidence towards Hong Kong's future, and the Financial Secretary's popularity. In our second survey, we focus on people's reactions towards major government proposals, their satisfaction with the government's fiscal policies, and other relevant issues. Starting 2011, we revised our design to concentrate on people's appraisal of the Budget and FS's popularity in our instant survey, and move the remaining questions to our follow-up survey. There is no change to our operation this year. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures
The findings of the first Budget follow-up poll released by the POP SITE today have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011. Herewith the contact information of relevant surveys:
Results of the first Budget follow-up surveys of 2010 to 2012 together with their corresponding instant polls are tabulated below:
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. [9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. [10] Excluding respondents who said they had not heard of the Budget, or were not clear about the Budget content. The sub-sample size was 826. [11] Excluding respondents who said they had not heard of the Budget, or were not clear about the Budget content. The sub-sample size was 911. [12] Excluding respondents who said they had not heard of the Budget, or were not clear about the Budget content. The sub-sample size was 724. Our first Budget follow-up survey reveals that 39% of the respondents were satisfied with the Budget and 30% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 3.0, meaning "half-half" in general. The average rating registered for the Budget was 52.6 marks. With respect to people's specific reactions towards the contents of this year's Budget, relevant findings are summarized below:
Results showed that, 42% of the respondents thought that the relief measures suggested by the Financial Secretary are enough, 52% thought the opposite. 30% thought the proposed measures can face the risk of the external environment as mentioned by Financial Secretary, 49% said cannot. Besides, the grant of $6,000 to each citizen in the budget plan last year did not appear this year, and 55% are satisfied with this arrangement, 30% are dissatisfied. On the other hand, 47% of the respondents agree to the saying that the budget plan this year has appealed to the middle class but ignored the grassroots, 39% disagree to it. With respect to people's satisfaction with the government's strategy in monetary arrangement and other relevant issues, the figures are summarized below:
[15] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. [16] Collapsed from a 4-point scale. * Erratum: The figures in the original release were mistyped, with regret. Latest results revealed that 33% were satisfied with the government's strategy in monetary arrangement, whereas 43% were dissatisfied. With respect to Hong Kong's tax system, 56% viewed it fair, whilst 32% thought it unfair. Last of all, 20% perceived the distribution of wealth in Hong Kong reasonable, as contrast to 70% who regarded it unreasonable. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Commentary Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our surveys show that people's instant reaction to the Budget in the first night was quite positive, with 38% satisfied, 26% dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction rate of 12 percentage points. Satisfaction rating was 57.0 marks. One to two days later, after widespread coverage by the media, satisfaction rate slightly increases to 39%, dissatisfaction rate also goes up to 30%, net satisfaction rate narrows down to positive 9 percentage points, while satisfaction rating also goes down to 52.6 marks. This shows people's response turned slightly more negative, which is normal, and this year's development is not particularly serious. Of course, how people's reaction will change after knowing even more about the Budget remains to be revealed by our follow-up survey to be conducted weeks later. According to our latest survey, relatively more people feel that that the relief measures suggested by the FS this year are not enough, that the Budget cannot face the risk of the external environment, and that the Budget has appealed to the middle class but ignored the grassroots. However, 55% are satisfied with this year's arrangement of not granting $6,000 to each citizen. Also, 56% consider Hong Kong's tax system to be fair, but 70% consider the distribution of wealth to be unreasonable, and only 33% are satisfied with the government's fiscal policies." | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Future Releases (Tentative)
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| Special Announcement | Abstract | Background | Latest Figures | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
