HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of Executive CouncillorsBack

The "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) hosted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong is now running the "CE Nomination Guessing Game", to measure users' intelligent guesses. The latest situation is that Henry Tang leads Leung Chun-ying and Albert Ho, with guestimates of 637, 309 and 194 nominations respectively.

The latest survey conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong shows that compared to three months ago, the ratings of four of the "top 5" non-official Executive Councillors have increased. Among them, those of Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Ronald Arculli have gone up significantly, by 2.7, 2.7 and 2.0 marks respectively. The rating of Lau Wong-fat decreases significantly by 3.0 marks, perhaps related to his re-appointment as District Councillor and also his handling of unauthorized building works in the New Territories. In terms of absolute ratings, only two of our "top 5" non-official Executive Councillors get more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, all positions in our "top 5 Councillors" have remained unchanged, namely, Ronald Arculli, Leong Che-hung, Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat in descending order. It should be noted, however, that our list of "top five" only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figures is below +/-2.4 marks. The response rate of the rating survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey on top 5 Executive Councillors is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 65.1% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 67.3% response rate.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.4 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of Executive Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings[6]
3-6/1/2012 (First stage naming survey)	1,007	65.1%	+/-4%
9-14/1/2012 (Second stage rating survey)	1,004	67.3%	+/-2.4

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

 

The research design of our "Top 5 Executive Councillors" is similar to that of our "Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early January. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Latest findings of the naming survey are as follows:

 

Date of survey	5-7/1/11	4-12/4/11	11-20/7/11	13-20/10/11	3-6/1/12	Latest Change in Ranking
Sample base	575	1,005	1,028	1,040	1,007[7]	--
Overall response rate	66.4%	68.5%	66.4%	69.8%	65.1%	--
Finding/ Error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[7]	--
Lau Wong-fat	5%{2}	6%{3}	4%{4}	5%{4}	12+/-3%{1}	↑3
Ronald Arculli	4%{3}	5%{4}	3%{6}	15%{1}	11+/-3%{2}	↓1
Cheng Yiu-tong	4%{5}	7%{2}	7%{2}	7%{3}	7+/-2%{3}	--
Lau Kong-wah	4%{4}	5%{5}	2%{7}	7%{2}	5+/-2%{4}	↓2
Anthony Cheung	1%{7}	3%{6}	6%{3}	5%{5}	4+/-2%{5}	--
Leong Che-hung	1%{8}	2%{8}	4%{5}	4%{6}	3+/-2%{6}	--
Anna Wu	<1%{12}	2%{9}	1%{9}	2%{7}	1+/-1%{7}[8]	--
Marjorie Yang	<1%{11}	0%{13}	0%	0%{13}	1+/-1%{8}[8]	↑5
Laura M Cha	2%{6}	2%{7}	1%{8}	1%{8}	1+/-1%{9}[8]	↓1
Lawrence Lau	<1%{10}	<1%{11}	0%	<1% {12}	<1+/-1% {10}[9]	↑2
V Nee Yeh	0%{13}	0%{13}	0%	1%{9}	<1+/-1%{11}[9]	↓2
Charles Lee	<1%{9}	<1%{12}	0%	<1%{11}	<1+/-1%{11}[9]	--
Marvin Cheung	0%{13}	<1%{10}	<1%{10}	<1%{10}	0%{13}	↓3
Leung Chun-ying[10]	16%{1}	23%{1}	34%{1}	--	--	--
Wrong answer	19%	15%	27%	33%	31%+/-4%	--
Don't know/hard to say	65%	64%	50%	51%	53%+/-4%	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings in our naming survey. Councillors with the same recognition rate will be ranked according to the decimal place of the corresponding percentages. Please refer to the POP Site for detailed figures of the previous surveys. The error margin of previous surveys can also be found at the POP Site. The sub-sample size for this survey is 551.
[8] The percentages of respondents who could name Anna Wu, Marjorie Yang and Laura M Cha were 0.7%, 0.6% and 0.5%. Hence Anna Wu ranked the 7th, while Marjorie Yang was placed at the 8th rank and Laura M Cha at the 9th rank.
[9] The percentages of respondents who could name Lawrence Lau, V Nee Yeh and Charles Lee were 0.4%, 0.2% and 0.2%. Hence Lawrence Lau ranked the 10th, while V Nee Yeh and Charles Lee were both placed at the 11th rank.
[10] Leung Chun-ying resigned as Executive Council convenor on October 4, 2011.

 

The naming survey conducted in early January showed that Lau Wong-fat was named most frequently with a recognition rate of 12%. Ronald Arculli, Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Anthony Cheung with recognition rate of 11%, 7%, 5%, and 4%, and ranked the 2nd to 5th. However, 31% made a wrong attempt at citing Executive Councillors (non-official) while 53% had no clue.

Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in mid-January, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

 

Date of survey	11-19/1/11	15-29/4/11	21-25/7/11	25/10-2/11/11	9-14/1/12		Latest change
Sample base	520-549	558-626	551-642	550-660	525-612		--
Overall response rate	66.1%	59.7%	67.1%	65.5%	67.3%		--
Finding/ Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error [11]	Recognition rate	--
Ronald Arculli	53.6{1}	51.3{1}[13]	49.0{1}[13]	51.6{1}[13]	53.6{1}+/-1.9	75.5%	+2.0[13]
Leong Che-hung	--	--	47.4{3}	48.1{2}	50.2{2}+/-2.3	68.5%	+2.1
Cheng Yiu-tong	49.6{3}	43.9{4}[13]	42.2{4}	44.0{3}	46.7{3}+/-2.1	70.5%	+2.7[13]
Lau Kong-wah	48.6{4}	44.2{3}[13]	--	42.2{4}	44.9{4}+/-2.4	70.8%	+2.7[13]
Lau Wong-fat	37.6{5}	37.3{5}	38.0{5}	38.6{5}	35.6{5}+/-2.2	81.7%	-3.0[13]
Anthony Cheung	--	48.5[12]	47.5[12]	50.0[12][13]	51.6+/-2.4[12]	54.5%	+1.6
Leung Chun-ying[14]	51.2{2}	47.6 {2}[13]	48.1{2}	--	--	--	--
Laura M Cha	48.6[12]	--	--	--	--	--	--

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.4 marks at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[14] Leung Chun-ying resigned as Executive Council convenor on October 4, 2011.

 

The latest rating survey conducted in mid-January showed that Ronald Arculli was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 53.6 marks. The 2nd rank went to Leong Che-hung with 50.2 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat with 46.7, 44.9 and 35.6 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 46.2 marks. For this latest survey, Anthony Cheung obtained a support rating of 51.6 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

 

Date of survey	15-29/4/11	21-25/7/11	25/10-2/11/11	9-14/1/12	No.of times on top 5	Average rating [15]	Overall ranking [16]
Ronald Arculli	51.3	49.0	51.6	53.6	4	51.4	1
Cheng Yiu-tong	43.9	42.2	44.0	46.7	4	44.2	2
Lau Wong-fat	37.3	38.0	38.6	35.6	4	37.4	3
Leong Che-hung	-	47.4	48.1	50.2	3	48.6	4
Lau Kong-wah	44.2	-	42.2	44.9	3	43.8	5
Leung Chun-ying[17]	47.6	48.1	-	-	2	47.8	6

[15] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
[16] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 5, and then their average ratings.
[17] Leung Chun-ying resigned as Executive Council convenor on October 4, 2011.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. Ronald Arculli, Cheng Yiu-tong, and Lau Wong-fat ranked 1st to 3rd place respectively and achieved average ratings of 51.4, 44.2 and 37.4 marks. Leong Che-hung and Lau Kong-wah have been on the list for three times with average ratings of 48.6 and 43.8 marks, ranked the 4th and 5th respectively. Leung Chun-ying has been on the list twice with an average rating of 47.8 marks and ranked at 6th place.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from October 25 to November 2, 2011 while this survey was conducted from January 9 to 14, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

 

10/1/12	The Environment Bureau launched a three-month public consultation on the introduction of charging to reduce the generation of solid waste.
9/1/12	Hong Kong and Guangdong today approved the 2012 Work Plan of the Framework Agreement on Hong Kong-Guangdong Co-operation.
4/1/12	The government has listed 25 sites reclamation and man-made islands for reclamation to create the land bank.
26/12/11	Donald Tsang on his final duty visit to Beijing.
14/12/11	The annual three day Central Economic Work Conference laid out an economic blueprint for 2012.
13/12/11	CLP Power and Hongkong Electric are demanding tariff increases 9.2 % and 6.3% respectively from next year.
8/12/11	The Government will closely monitor the property market situation and timely introduce measures.
4/12/11	ICAC investigates the suspected vote-rigging case happened in the District Council Election.
30/11/11	9 people died and 34 were injured in a fire that broke out in hawker stalls in Fa Yuen Street in Mong Kok.
27/11/11	Leung Chun-ying announced he will be a candidate in next year's Chief Executive Election.
26/10/11	Right-of-abode applications for domestic helpers will continue to be withheld.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, the ratings of four of the "top 5" non-official Executive Councillors have increased. Among them, those of Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Ronald Arculli have gone up significantly, by 2.7, 2.7 and 2.0 marks respectively. The rating of Lau Wong-fat decreases significantly by 3.0 marks, perhaps related to his re-appointment as District Councillor and also his handling of unauthorized building works in the New Territories. In terms of absolute ratings, only two of our "top 5" non-official Executive Councillors get more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, all positions in our "top 5 Councillors" have remained unchanged, namely, Ronald Arculli, Leong Che-hung, Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat in descending order. It should be noted, however, that our list of "top five" only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the "Opinion Daily" of our POP Site."

• January 31, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and SAR Government
• February 2, 2012 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Budget instant survey