HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

Press Release on January 17, 2012

Special Announcement

The "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) hosted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong is now running the "CE Nomination Guessing Game", to measure users' intelligent guesses. For the "Taiwan Presidential Election Guessing Game" just completed, users' final guesses were Ma Ying-jeou 48%, Tsai Ing-wen 43% and James Soong 9%, which is not too far from the real result of 52%, 46% and 3%. This is worth studying. Meanwhile, for the "CE Nomination Guessing Game", the latest situation is that Henry Tang leads Leung Chun-ying and Albert Ho, with guestimates of 558, 291 and 180 nominations respectively.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,007 Hong Kong people between January 3 to 6, 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang is 48.0 marks, slightly dropped by 1.0 mark compared to the last survey. His approval rate now stands at 25%, disapproval rate at 68%, giving a net popularity of negative 43 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, the popularity of all three Secretaries have not changed much. CS Stephen Lam's latest support rating is 36.4 marks, approval rate 15%, disapproval rate 41%, giving a net popularity of negative 26 percentage points, also hitting a new low in popularity since he took up the post of CS. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 50.6 marks, approval rate 37%, disapproval rate 24%, giving a net popularity of positive 13 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 57.7 marks, approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 8%, and his net popularity stands at positive 46 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 8 Directors have gone up, 2 have gone down while 2 remain unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So have registered changes in approval rates beyond sampling error, down by 6 and up by 5 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Tsang Tak-sing and Michael Suen register negative popularity, at negative 13 and 27 percentage points respectively. Carrie Lam continues to be the most popular Director. According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung and Matthew Cheung now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of York Chow, Eva Cheng, John Tsang, Edward Yau, Tsang Tak-sing, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue, Raymond Tam and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang "disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 65.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
3-6/1/2012	1,007	65.1%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
1,300	+/- 2.8 %	1,350	+/- 2.7 %
1,200	+/- 2.9 %	1,250	+/- 2.8 %
1,100	+/- 3.0 %	1,150	+/- 3.0 %
1,000	+/- 3.2 %	1,050	+/- 3.1 %
900	+/- 3.3 %	950	+/- 3.2 %
800	+/- 3.5 %	850	+/- 3.4 %
700	+/- 3.8 %	750	+/- 3.7 %
600	+/- 4.1 %	650	+/- 3.9 %
500	+/- 4.5 %	550	+/- 4.3 %
400	+/- 5.0 %	450	+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	31/10-9/11/11	15-21/11/11	1-5/12/11	14-28/12/11	3-6/1/2012	Latest change
Sample base	1,002	1,023	1,009	1,035	1,007	--
Overall response rate	64.8%	69.7%	67.7%	65.9%	65.1%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[8]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	48.7	49.8	50.2	49.0	48.0+/-1.4	-1.0
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	29%^[10]	24%^[10]	26%	21%^[9]	25+/-3%	+4%^[9]
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	61%^[10]	67%^[10]	65%	71%^[9]	68+/-3%	-3%
Net approval rate	-32%	-43%	-39%	-50%	-43%	+7%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	29/8-6/9/11	26/9-4/10/11	31/10-9/11/11	1-5/12/11	3-6/1/2012	Latest change^[10]
Sample base^[10]	560-628	509-673	526-579	516-542	540-587	--
Overall response rate	64.6%	66.1%	64.8%	67.7%	65.1%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[11]	--
Ratings of CS Stephen Lam^[12]	--	38.5	40.4	38.5	36.4+/-2.1	-2.1
Vote of confidence in CS Stephen Lam^[12]	--	20%	22%	16%^[13]	15+/-3%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in CS Stephen Lam^[12]	--	36%	32%	39%^[13]	41+/-4%	+2%
Net approval rate^[12]	--	-16%	-10%	-23%	-26%	-3%
Ratings of FS John Tsang	49.6^[13]	50.2	51.7	51.0	50.6+/-1.6	-0.4
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang	33%^[13]	39%^[13]	35%	33%	37+/-4%	+4%
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang	27%^[13]	23%^[13]	20%	26%^[13]	24+/-4%	-2%
Net approval rate	6%	16%	15%	7%	13%	+6%
Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong	58.2	59.5	60.6	59.4	57.7+/-1.5	-1.7^[13]
Vote of confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	58%	61%	63%	54%^[13]	54+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	9%	6%^[13]	3%^[13]	7%^[13]	8+/-2%	+1%
Net approval rate	49%	55%	60%	47%	46%	-1%

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] The Government announced the appointment of former Secretary of Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam as the Chief Secretary on September 30, 2011.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	31/10-9/11/11		31/10-9/11/11		3-6/1/2012		Latest change
Total sample size^[14]	526-570		505-579		517-576		--
Overall response rate	64.8%		67.7%		65.1%		--
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer	Base	%	Base	%	Base	% Finding & error^[15]	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	550	62%	527	62%	550	63+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	550	10%	527	10%	550	12+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate	--	52%	--	52%	--	51%	-1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	554	61%	511	55%^[17]	535	56+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	554	12%	511	13%	535	14+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	49%	--	42%	--	42%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	537	51%	509	48%	547	50+/-4%^[18]	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	537	10%	509	14%^[17]	547	11+/-3%	-3%
Net approval rate	--	41%	--	34%	--	39%	+5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	552	49%	506	47%	517	50+/-4%^[18]	+3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	552	23%	506	26%	517	24+/-4%	-2%
Net approval rate	--	26%	--	21%	--	26%	+5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng	544	50%	579	46%	561	46+/-4%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng	544	17%	579	14%	561	19+/-3%	+5%^[17]
Net approval rate	--	33%	--	32%	--	27%	-5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau	538	43%	507	36%^[17]	530	37+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau	538	14%	507	18%^[17]	530	25+/-4%	+7%^[17]
Net approval rate	--	29%	--	18%	--	12%	-6%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	526	41%^[17]	532	39%	557	33+/-4%	-6%^[17]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	526	7%^[17]	532	11%^[17]	557	13+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate	--	34%	--	28%	--	20%	-8%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	550	35%	558	31%	570	32+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	550	7%	558	10%	570	9+/-2%	-1%
Net approval rate	--	28%	--	21%	--	23%	+2%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	548	27%^[17]	505	23%	544	24+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	548	28%	505	33%^[17]	544	37+/-4%	+4%
Net approval rate	--	-1%	--	-10%	--	-13%	-3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam^[16]	570	27%	522	25%	545	22+/-3%^[19]	-3%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam^[16]	570	7%	522	9%	545	11+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate^[16]	--	20%	--	16%	--	11%	-5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	550	25%	539	22%	539	22+/-4%^[19]	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	550	43%	539	45%	539	49+/-4%	+4%
Net approval rate	--	-18%	--	-23%	--	-27%	-4%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	534	22%	532	15%^[17]	576	20+/-3%	+5%^[17]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	534	12%	532	15%	576	15+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	--	10%	--	0%	--	5%	+5%

[14] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[15] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[16] The government announced the appointment of Raymond Tam as the new Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs on September 30.
[17] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[18] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung is 50.2%, while that of Secretary for Food and Health York Chow is 49.7%, so that Matthew Cheung ranks 3rd while York Chow ranks 4th.
[19] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam is 22.3%, while that of Secretary for Education Michael Suen is 22.2%, so that Raymond Tam ranks 10th while Michael Suen ranks 11th.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 48.0 marks, and 25% supported him as the Chief Executive, his net approval rate is negative 43%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Stephen Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 36.4, 50.6 and 57.7 marks, and 15%, 37% and 54% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are negative 26%, positive 13% and positive 46% respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, attaining 63%. Her net approval rate is positive 51%. The 2nd to 5th places belonged to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Food and Health York Chow and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, with approval rates 56%, 50%, 50% and 46% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 42%, 39%, 26% and 27% respectively. Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So ranked 6th to 12th, as they gained 37%, 33%, 32%, 24%, 22%, 22% and 20% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 12%, positive 20%, positive 23%, negative 13%, positive 11%, negative 27% and positive 5%. In other words, only Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee and Matthew Cheung scored approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from December 1 to 5, 2011 while this survey was conducted from January 3 to 6, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

4/1/12	The government has listed 25 sites reclamation and man-made islands for reclamation to create the land bank.
2/1/12	Nine water samples containing Legionella bacteria were found in the Legislative Council Complex at Tamar.
30/12/11	CLP announced it will further reducing its planned increase from 7.4% to 4.9%.
29/12/11	The survey conducted by the Airport Authority show that a majority of respondents support the three-runway option.
26/12/11	Donald Tsang on his final duty visit to Beijing.
21/12/11	The Government killed 17000 live chickens because of bird flu.
16/12/11	Hong Kong Electric tends to decrease the increase magnitude of households electricity fee.
12/12/11	A total of 65,500 registered voters voted in the 2011 Election Committee Subsector Elections.
8/12/11	The Government will closely monitor the property market situation and timely introduce measures.
4/12/11	ICAC investigates the suspected vote-rigging case happened in the District Council Election.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang is 48.0 marks, slightly dropped by 1.0 mark compared to the last survey. His approval rate now stands at 25%, disapproval rate at 68%, giving a net popularity of negative 43 percentage points.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, the popularity of all three Secretaries have not changed much. CS Stephen Lam's latest support rating is 36.4 marks, approval rate 15%, disapproval rate 41%, giving a net popularity of negative 26 percentage points, also hitting a new low in popularity since he took up the post of CS. The latest support rating of FS John Tsang is 50.6 marks, approval rate 37%, disapproval rate 24%, giving a net popularity of positive 13 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 57.7 marks, approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 8%, and his net popularity stands at positive 46 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 8 Directors have gone up, 2 have gone down while 2 remain unchanged. Among them, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So have registered changes in approval rates beyond sampling error, down by 6 and up by 5 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Tsang Tak-sing and Michael Suen register negative popularity, at negative 13 and 27 percentage points respectively. Carrie Lam continues to be the most popular Director.

According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung and Matthew Cheung now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of York Chow, Eva Cheng, John Tsang, Edward Yau, Tsang Tak-sing, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue, Raymond Tam and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang "disastrous".

The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

None

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (63%); Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong (56%); SJ Wong Yan-lung (54%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (50%^[20])

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok (50%^[20]); Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah (46%); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (37%^[20]); Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah (37%^[20]); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (24%); Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung (22%); CS Stephen Lam Sui-lung (15%)

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (33%, 46%); Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee (32%, 41%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen (22%, 34%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (20%, 35%)

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

None

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen (68%)

[20] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung is 50.2% while that of Secretary for Food and Health York Chow is 49.7%; the approval rate of FS John Tsang is 36.7% while that of Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau is 36.5%.

Future Release (Tentative)

January 19, 2012 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Legislative Councillors, Hong Kong Police Force and PLA Hong Kong Garrison