HKU POP releases people's appraisal of society's conditionsBack

Press Release on January 10, 2012

Special Announcement

The "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) hosted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong is now running the "Taiwan Presidential Election Guessing Game", to test users' intelligent guesses. As for the "CE Primary Election Guessing Game" just completed, users' final guesses were Albert Ho at 55 points and Frederick Fung at 45 points, which is not far from to the real result of 61 versus 39. This is worth studying. Meanwhile, for the "Taiwan Presidential Election Guessing Game", the latest situation is that Ma Ying-jeou leads Tsai Ing-wen and James Soong, with 46%, 38% and 16% respectively.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,027 Hong Kong people from December 19 to 29, 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that using a one-in-three choices method, livelihood issues are people's most concerned issues followed by economic and then political issues.# As for the satisfaction figures, people's net satisfaction of the current economic, political and livelihood conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 11, negative 21 and negative 35 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate over livelihood conditions has increased by 10 percentage points which has gone back to the level registered at late October 2011. In-depth analysis shows that, although people of 50 years old or above are dissatisfied with the livelihood conditions, their dissatisfaction rate is relatively lower than other age groups. ?The maximum sampling error of the survey is between +/-2 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 63%.

# In the original release, "importance ratings" were mistaken as "concern ratings", they are hereby corrected.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,027 successful interviews, not 1,027 x 62.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.13 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of people's appraisal of society's conditions. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[6]
19-29/12/2011	1,027	62.9%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people's appraisal of society's conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey^[7]	28-30/12/09	18-22/6/10	13-16/12/10	27/6-5/7/11	28-29/12/11	Latest change
Sample base	1,028	1,009	1,013	1,011	509^[7]	--
Overall response rate	66.5%	66.7%	67.4%	65.7%	62.8%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[9]	--
Most concerned with livelihood problems^[8]	42%	54%^[10]	52%	70%^[10]	64+/-4%	-6%^[10]
Most concerned with economic problems	44%^[10]	31%^[10]	36%^[10]	20%^[10]	30+/-4%	+10%^[10]
Most concerned with political problems	12%^[10]	12%	9%^[10]	7%	4+/-2%	-3%^[10]
Rating on concern for livelihood problems^[8] #	7.24	7.38^[10]	7.48	7.38	--	--
Rating on concern for economic problems #	7.19	7.05^[10]	7.25^[10]	7.16	--	--
Rating on concern for political problems #	5.62	5.90^[10]	5.86	5.71 ^[10]	--	--

[7] Since 2006, this series of survey conducted in every 6 months, the sample size of this survey is 509.
# In the original release, "importance ratings" were mistaken as "concern ratings", they are hereby corrected.

Date of survey^[12]	23-30/8/11	26/9-3/10/11	25/10-3/11/11	21-28/11/11	19-29/12/11	Latest change
Sample base	1,026	1,000	1,009	1,001	1,027	--
Overall response rate	66.8%	66.3%	66.9%	70.6%	62.9%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[9]	--
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate^[11]	21%^[10]	28%^[10]	32%	34%	31+/-3%	-3%
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	52%^[10]	44%^[10]	42%	38%^[10]	42+/-3%	+4%^[10]
Mean value^[11]	2.5+/-0.1^[10] (Base=1,012)	2.7+/-0.1^[10] (Base=982)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=998)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=984)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,015)	-0.1
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate^[11]	13%	18%^[10]	19%	26%^[10]	24+/-3%	-2%
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	63%^[10]	55%^[10]	55%	45%^[10]	45+/-3%	--
Mean value^[11]	2.2+/-0.1 (Base=993)	2.4+/-0.1^[10] (Base=956)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=971)	2.7+/-0.1^[10] (Base=936)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=982)	--
Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate^[8] ^[11]	16%	20%^[10]	22%	27%^[10]	19+/-2%	-8%^[10]
Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[8] ^[11]	60%	52%^[10]	53%	44%^[10]	54+/-3%	+10%^[10]
Mean value^[11]	2.3+/-0.1 (Base=1,009)	2.5+/-0.1^[10] (Base=979)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=989)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=964)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=1,002)	-0.2^[10]

[8] The wordings used before the June 2010 survey were "social problems" and "social condition". We take them to mean the same as "livelihood problems" and "livelihood condition" in the survey context.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.13 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Some questions in this part were sponsored by "now news channel" and the survey results have been announced in the programme "News Magazine" and in the "now Survey on Public Sentiment Index" segment on 9 Jan 2012.

The survey conducted in between the mid and late December showed that 64% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems, 30% with economic problems, while 4% attached their greatest concern to political problems.# Meanwhile, people's satisfaction rates with the current economic, political and livelihood conditions were 31%, 24% and 19% respectively. The mean score of the economic, political and livelihood conditions are 2.8, 2.7 and 2.5, meaning close to "quite dissatisfied" and "half-half" in general.

# In the original release, "importance ratings" were mistaken as "concern ratings", they are hereby corrected.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of the satisfaction rate on current livelihood conditions by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 19-29/12/11		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Satisfaction rate on current livelihood conditions^[13]	Satisfied	16+/-5% (31)	14+/-3% (56)	26+/-4% (109)	19+/-2% (197)
	Half-half	27+/-6% (52)	27+/-4% (109)	21+/-4% (89)	25+/-3% (250)
	Dissatisfied	57+/-7% (112)	58+/-5% (231)	48+/-5% (201)	54+/-3% (543)
	Don't know/ hard to say	0+/-0% (0)	1+/-1% (2)	5+/-2% (22)	2+/-1% (24)
	Total	100% (195)	100% (398)	100% (421)	100% (1,014)
	Mean value	2.5+/-0.1 (195)	2.4+/-0.1 (396)	2.6+/-0.1 (399)	2.5+/-0.1 (990)

[13] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items of the previous survey were conducted from June 27 to July 5, 2011 while this survey was conducted from December 19 to 29, 2011. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

29/12/11	The survey conducted by the Airport Authority show that a majority of respondents support the three-runway option.
21/12/11	The Government killed 17000 live chickens because of bird flu.
13/12/11	CLP Power and Hongkong Electric are demanding tariff increases 9.2 % and 6.3% respectively from next year.
4/12/11	ICAC investigates the suspected vote-rigging case happened in the District Council Election.
30/11/11	9 people died and 34 were injured in a fire that broke out in hawker stalls in Fa Yuen Street in Mong Kok.
17/11/11	Henry Tang and Leung Chun-ying said the announcement of their candidacy for next year's Chief Executive Election will be made at the end of this month.
6/11/11	About 1.2m registered electors have cast their votes in the 2011 District Council election.
12/10/11	The Chief Executive Donald Tsang announces the 2011-12 Policy Address.
8/10/11	Chief Executive Donald Tsang admits having flaws in dealing with the housing issue.
9/9/11	Deputy Secretary for Labour & Welfare Roy Tang will become Director of Broadcasting.
29/8/11	Commissioner of Police Andy Tsang clarified the security actions made during Vice Premier's stay.
16/8/11	Vice-Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang arrived in Hong Kong for a three-day official visit.
11/7/11	Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office director Wang Guangya talked about the conditions for the next Chief Executive of Hong Kong.
1/7/11	Many newspapers on the following day report the July 1 march.
28/6/11	The replacement mechanism for filling midterm Legislative Council vacancies is revised.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "According to our latest survey, using a one-in-three choices method, livelihood issues are people's most concerned issues followed by economic and then political issues.# As for the satisfaction figures, people's net satisfaction of the current economic, political and livelihood conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 11, negative 21 and negative 35 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate over livelihood conditions has increased by 10 percentage points which has gone back to the level registered at late October 2011. In-depth analysis shows that, although people of 50 years old or above are dissatisfied with the livelihood conditions, their dissatisfaction rate is relatively lower than other age groups. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our 'Opinion Daily' feature page."

# In the original release, "importance ratings" were mistaken as "concern ratings", they are hereby corrected.

Future Release (Tentative)

January 17, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials