HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on January 3, 2012

Special Announcement

The "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) hosted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong is now running two games, namely, the "CE Primary Election Guessing Game" and the "Taiwan Presidential Election Guessing Game", with many prizes. For the "CE Primary Election Guessing Game", the latest situation is that Albert Ho leads Frederick Fung by 63% to 37%, while for the " Taiwan Presidential Election Guessing Game", the latest situation is that Ma Ying-jeou leads Tsai Ing-wen and James Soong, with 47%, 37% and 16% respectively.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,035 Hong Kong people between 14 and 28 December 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang is 49.0 marks, slightly dropped by 1.2 marks compared to the last survey and just within sampling error. His approval rate now stands at 21%, disapproval rate at 71%, giving a net popularity of negative 50 percentage points, which is the worst since he became CE. Indepth analysis shows that those of age below 30 are more critical of Tsang's appointment as CE, with a high disapproval rate exceeding 75% again. As for the SAR Government, its satisfaction rate has slightly dropped compared to one month ago, and the net satisfaction rate now stands at negative 25 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, only its relation with the Central Government continues to register a positive value at positive 20 percentage points. Other four items all register negative values: maintaining economic prosperity at negative 6 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 9 percentage points, developing democracy at negative 24 percentage points, and improving people's livelihood at negative 38 percentage points and also with a dissatisfaction rate close to 60%, rendering it an obvious area for immediate improvement. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,035 successful interviews, not 1,035 x 65.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.2 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
14-28/12/2011	1,035	65.9%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	13-20/10/11	31/10-9/11/11	15-21/11/11	1-5/12/11	14-28/12/11	Latest Change
Sample base	1,013	1,002	1,023	1,009	1,035	--
Overall response rate	71.8%	64.8%	69.7%	67.7%	65.9%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	47.9^[9]	48.7	49.8	50.2	49.0+/-1.2	-1.2
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	25%	29%^[9]	24%^[9]	26%	21+/-3%	-5%^[9]
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	65%	61%^[9]	67%^[9]	65%	71+/-3%	+6%^[9]
Net approval rate	-40%	-32%	-43%	-39%	-50%	-11%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	24%	--	24%	--	22+/-4%	-2%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	48%	--	45%	--	47+/-4%	+2%
Net satisfaction rate	-24%	--	-21%	--	-25%	-4%
Mean value^[8]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=632)	--	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=506)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=508)	-0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 508.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 49.0 marks, and 21% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 22% were satisfied, whereas 47% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.6, meaning in between "half-half" and "quite dissatisfied".

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	17-22/12/10	14-23/3/11	23-29/6/11	13-20/9/11	14-28/12/11	Latest Change^[13]
Sample base^[13]	1,017	549-617	541-626	514-635	504-529	--
Overall response rate	66.4%	63.1%	68.7%	65.5%	65.9%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding]	Finding	Finding & error^[10]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[11]	52%^[12]	47%^[12]	39%^[12]	39%	46+/-4%	+7%^[12]
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	19%^[12]	19%	25%^[12]	28%	26+/-4%	-2%
Net satisfaction rate	+33%	+28%	+14%	+11%	+20%	+9%
Mean value^[11]	3.4+/-0.1 (base=935)	3.3+/-0.1 (base=563)	3.1+/-0.1^[12] (base =524)	3.1+/-0.1 (base =580)	3.2+/-0.1 (base =504)	+0.1
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[11]	36%	32%	28%	31%	32+/-4%^[14]	+1%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	33%^[12]	35%	44%^[12]	39%^[12]	38+/-4%	-1%
Net satisfaction rate	+3%	-3%	-16%	-8%	-6%	+2%
Mean value^[11]	2.9+/-0.1 (base =1,003)	2.9+/-0.1 (base =528)	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (base =535)	2.8+/-0.1 (base =627)	2.8+/-0.1 (base =529)	--
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[11]	43%^[12]	40%	31%^[12]	27%	32+/-4%^[14]	+5%^[12]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	27%	29%	39%^[12]	43%	41+/-4%	-2%
Net satisfaction rate	+16%	+11%	-8%	-16%	-9%	+7%
Mean value^[11]	3.1+/-0.1 (base =982)	3.1+/-0.1 (base =586)	2.8+/-0.1^[12] (base =538)	2.7+/-0.1 (base =494)	2.8+/-0.1 (base =506)	+0.1
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[11]	30%^[12]	27%	25%	22%	26+/-4%	+4%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	40%^[12]	43%	47%	50%	50+/-4%	--
Net satisfaction rate	-10%	-16%	-22%	-28%	-24%	+4%
Mean value^[11]	2.8+/-0.1 (base =954)	2.7+/-0.1 (base =575)	2.6+/-0.1 (base =596)	2.5+/-0.1 (base =568)	2.6+/-0.1 (base =517)	+0.1
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[11]	21%	18%	16%	18%	20+/-4%	+2%
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	54%^[12]	53%	57%	57%	58+/-4%	+1%
Net satisfaction rate	-33%	-35%	-41%	-39%	-38%	+1%
Mean value^[11]	2.5+/-0.1^[12] (base =1,002)	2.5+/-0.1 (base =585)	2.3+/-0.1^[12] (base =547)	2.4+/-0.1 (base =601)	2.4+/-0.1 (base =516)	--

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[13] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] In one decimal place, satisfaction rate of maintaining economic prosperity's is 32.0%, while that of protecting human rights and freedom is 31.8%, so that maintaining economic prosperity ranks 2nd while protecting human rights and freedom ranks 3rd.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 46%. The government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity and protecting human rights and freedom followed, each attaining a satisfaction percentage of 32%. Finally, a respective of 26% and 20% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in developing democracy as well as improving people's livelihood. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.2, 2.8, 2.8, 2.6 and 2.4 respectively, meaning close to "half-half" or "quite dissatisfied" in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 14-28/12/2011		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Vote of confidence/no confidence in CE Donald Tsang^[15]	Confidence	19+/-6% (38)	21+/-4% (83)	23+/-4% (98)	22+/-3% (219)
	No confidence	77+/-6% (152)	72+/-5% (287)	68+/-5% (284)	71+/-3% (723)
	Don't know/ Hard to say	3+/-2% (6)	8+/-3% (30)	9+/-3% (38)	7+/-2% (74)
	Total	100% (197)	100% (400)	100% (420)	100% (1,017)

[15] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 13 to 20 September, 2011 while this survey was conducted from 14 to 28 December, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

26/12/11	Donald Tsang on his final duty visit to Beijing.
21/12/11	The Government killed 17000 live chickens because of bird flu.
13/12/11	CLP Power and Hongkong Electric are demanding tariff increases 9.2 % and 6.3% respectively from next year.
12/12/11	A total of 65,500 registered voters voted in the 2011 Election Committee Subsector Elections.
4/12/11	ICAC investigates the suspected vote-rigging case happened in the District Council Election.
30/11/11	9 people died and 34 were injured in a fire that broke out in hawker stalls in Fa Yuen Street in Mong Kok.
12/11/11	President Hu Jintao has reminded the SAR Government to get prepared for financial crisis.
6/11/11	About 1.2m registered electors have cast their votes in the 2011 District Council election.
13/10/11	Donald Tsang regarded legislator Raymond Wong behaved like a "thug" and a "triad" member.
12/10/11	The Chief Executive Donald Tsang announces the 2011-12 Policy Address.
8/10/11	Chief Executive Donald Tsang admits having flaws in dealing with the housing issue.
27/9/11	The Government won in the judicial review of the environmental impact assessment report on the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge project.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang is 49.0 marks, slightly dropped by 1.2 marks compared to the last survey and just within sampling error. His approval rate now stands at 21%, disapproval rate at 71%, giving a net popularity of negative 50 percentage points, which is the worst since he became CE. Indepth analysis shows that those of age below 30 are more critical of Tsang's appointment as CE, with a high disapproval rate exceeding 75% again. As for the SAR Government, its satisfaction rate has slightly dropped compared to one month ago, and the net satisfaction rate now stands at negative 25 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, only its relation with the Central Government continues to register a positive value at positive 20 percentage points. Other four items all register negative values: maintaining economic prosperity at negative 6 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 9 percentage points, developing democracy at negative 24 percentage points, and improving people's livelihood at negative 38 percentage points and also with a dissatisfaction rate close to 60%, rendering it an obvious area for immediate improvement. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

January 10, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People's appraisal of society's conditions