HKU POP releases the latest figures of the 2011 year-end and 2012 forecast surveyBack

The "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) hosted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today launched another new game called "Taiwan Presidential Election Guessing Game", as a follow-up to our previous "DC Guessing Game", and in addition to the current "CE Primary Election Guessing Game". Users can now make guesses on the result of the Taiwan Presiential Election due to take place on January 14 next year, until the election ends. As for the "CE Primary Election Guessing Game", the latest situation is that Albert Ho still leads Frederick Fung by 66% to 34%.

POP interviewed 1,007 Hong Kong people between 12 and 20 December 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our annual survey shows that more than 60% lived a happy life in the year past, reaching a six-year high and giving a net happiness of positive 50 percentage points. However, the percentages of those satisfied with Hong Kong's development in the year past plunged by 11 percentage points to 33%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 2 percentage points. On people's expectation of next year's development, both on personal and societal levels, all figures are at their worst over the last three years. This means that although people are generally happy, they are not optimistic about the future. Besides, if people had to choose between having a prosperous, bribery-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for fairness, then bribery-free, then prosperity. The last item scores just over 20%, and is at record low since this survey series started in 1993. Looking ahead, the percentage of those who consider housing to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government in the coming year has surged 18 percentage points compared to a year ago. As for people's New Year wishes, without explicit prompting, more than 40% made a wish on personal matters, especially for health, while more than one-third made a wish on a society-related issue, mainly about the economy. Further analysis shows that the younger the respondent is, and also the higher the social strata one belongs, the more likely one would say they lived a happy life in the year past. The maximum sampling error of the survey is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate being 69%.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of the 2011 review and 2012 forecast survey. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]
12-20/12/2011	1,007	69.3%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Herewith the figures collected at the year-end of 2011 compared with similar figures obtained in recent years:

Date of survey	16-18/12/08	14-17/12/09	17-22/12/10	12-20/12/11	Latest change
Sample base	1,005	1,000	1,017	1,007	--
Overall response rate	71.7%	70.5%	66.4%	69.3%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error[7]	--
Satisfied with HK's development for the year past[8]	29%[10]	42%[10]	44%	33+/-3%	-11%[10]
Dissatisfied with HK's development for the year past[8]	38%[10]	24%[10]	23%	35+/-3%	+12%[10]
Mean value[8]	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=956)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base =967)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base =982)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=972)	-0.3[10]
Expected HK's development to be better next year	15%[10]	62%[10]	46%[10]	27+/-3%	-19%[10]
Expected HK's development to be worse next year	64%[10]	12%[10]	20%[10]	48+/-3%	+28%[10]
Perceived housing to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	1%	5%[10]	19%[10]	37+/-3%	+18%[10]
Perceived economy to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	67%[10]	41%[10]	27%[10]	24+/-3%	-3%
Perceived welfare to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	4%[10]	6%	14%[10]	9+/-2%	-5%[10]
Perceived inflation to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	1%	1%	7%[10]	8+/-2%	+1%
Wished HK becomes a fair society	20%	21%	27%[10]	28+/-3%	+1%
Wished HK becomes a corruption-free society[9]	23%	25%	23%	27+/-3%	+4%[10]
Wished HK becomes a prosperous society	36%[10]	28%[10]	22%[10]	21+/-3%	-1%
Respondents who were happy for the year past[8]	52%[10]	55%	56%	61+/-3%	+5%[10]
Respondents who were unhappy for the year past[8]	17%[10]	14%[10]	13%	11+/-2%	-2%
Mean value[8]	3.4+/-0.1 (Base =999)	3.5+/-0.1 (Base =997)	3.5+/-0.1 (Base =1,011)	3.6+/-0.1 (Base =1,003)	+0.1
Expected personal development to become better next year	27%[10]	55%[10]	46%[10]	40+/-3%	-6%[10]
Expected personal development to become worse next year	31%[10]	10%[10]	12%	19+/-2%	+7%[10]
New year wishes: Personal health-related	13%	16%[10]	18%	22+/-3%	+4%[10]
New year wishes: Social economy-related	36%[10]	25%[10]	19%[10]	16+/-2%	-3%[10]
New year wishes: Social livelihood-related	7%	13%[10]	14%	11+/-2%[11]	-3%[10]
New year wishes: World peace-related	7%	8%	9%	11+/-2%[11]	+2%
No special wish	10%	11%	12%	12+/-2%	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9] The expression "clean society" was used in 2006 and before. In 2007, it was changed to "corruption-free society" to highlight the original meaning of the question.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[11] The ratings of Social livelihood-related and World peace-related are 11.3% and 11.1% respectively in 2 decimal places.

Looking back at the year past, 33% said they were satisfied with Hong Kong's development, 35% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.9, meaning close to "half-half" in general. Meanwhile, 27% expected Hong Kong's development in general to become "better" next year, 48% said it would be worse. Besides, 37% considered "housing" to be the most important problem that the government should tackle next year, 24% thought "economy" was the most pressing problem, while 9% and 8% thought "welfare" and "inflation" should be tackled respectively. If one had to choose between a "prosperous", "corruption-free", "fair", "free", and "welfare" society, 28% of the respondents would wish Hong Kong to become a "fair" society, while 27% and 21% opted for a "corruption-free" and "prosperous" society respectively.

Findings also showed that 61% of the respondents said they were happy in the year past, 11% were not. The mean score is 3.6, meaning close to "quite happy" in general. As for the coming year, 40% believed their personal development would become better, 19% thought they would be worse off. With respect to people's new year wishes, 22% were related to personal health, 16% were social economy-related, 11% each were related to social livelihood and world peace. 12% did not make any wish.

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of the happiness for the year 2011 by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 12-20/12/11		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Happiness for the year 2011[12]	Happy	71+/-7% (136)	61+/-5% (238)	57+/-5% (235)	61+/-3% (610)
	Half-half	19+/-6% (38)	28+/-5% (110)	31+/-5% (127)	27+/-3% (275)
	Unhappy	10+/-4% (19)	11+/-3% (44)	12+/-3% (49)	11+/-2% (111)
	Don't know / hard to say	0+/-0% (0)	0+/-0% (0)	1+/-1% (4)	0+/-0% (4)
	Total	100% (193)	100% (392)	100% (415)	100% (1,000)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Besides, we also asked respondents to classify themselves which one of the five social strata they belonged to. The options were: upper, upper-middle, middle-middle, lower-middle and lower stratum or grassroots. According to the choice of respondents, we grouped them into relatively upper, relatively middle and relatively lower strata, or in short form upper, middle and lower strata. Herewith further analysis by respondents' social strata:

Date of survey: 12-20/12/11		Upper	Middle	Lower	Overall sample
Happiness for the year 2011[13]	Happy	72+/-5% (252)	61+/-5% (212)	49+/-6% (141)	61+/-3% (604)
	Half-half	19+/-4% (68)	31+/-5% (106)	33+/-6% (94)	27+/-3% (268)
	Unhappy	8+/-3% (29)	8+/-3% (29)	18+/-5% (53)	11+/-2% (111)
	Don't know / hard to say	1+/-1% (3)	0+/-0% (0)	0+/-0% (1)	0+/-0% (4)
	Total	100% (352)	100% (346)	100% (289)	100% (987)

[13] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

Since August 2007, POP would normally include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This release is an exception, because the surveys invovled were one year apart, and any of the significant events listed in our "Opinion Daily" in between might have affected people's comments for the year past. Thus, this release has not highlighted any event from "Opinion Daily", but readers can make their own judgment based on the detailed records listed in our webpage.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our annual survey shows that compared to a year ago, more than 60% said they lived a happy life in the year past, reaching a six-year high and giving a net happiness of positive 50 percentage points. However, the percentages of those satisfied with Hong Kong's development in the year past plunged by 11 percentage points to 33%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 2 percentage points. On people's expectation of next year's development, both on personal and societal levels, all figures are at their worst over the last three years. This means that although people are generally happy, they are not optimistic about the future. Besides, if people had to choose between having a prosperous, bribery-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for fairness, then bribery-free, then prosperity. The last item scores just over 20%, and is at record low since this survey series started in 1993. Looking ahead, the percentage of those who consider housing to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government in the coming year has surged 18 percentage points compared to a year ago. As for people's New Year wishes, without explicit prompting, more than 40% made a wish on personal matters, especially for health, while more than one-third made a wish on a society-related issue, mainly about the economy. Further analysis shows that the younger the respondent is, and also the higher the social strata one belongs, the more likely one would say they lived a happy life in the year past."

• January 3, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government