HKU POP releases the latest trust and confidence indicators, and survey on Taiwan issuesBack

Press Release on December 20, 2011

| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis |
| Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government/People's Trust in the Taiwan Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future/People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Independence of Taiwan / Confidence in Cross-strait Reunification) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Applicability of "One Country, Two Systems" to Taiwan) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Taiwan's Rejoining the United Nations / Tibet Issues) |

Special Announcement

Because of the great popularity of our previous "DC Guessing Game", a new game will be launched at our "PopCon" (http://popcon.hk) for guessing the results of the CE Election Primary. Any user can make guesses on the final result of the Pan-democrats' CE Election Primary, due to take place on January 8 next year. Users can make daily guesses, in order to earn credits and win prizes which include tablet PC and coffee coupons. Guessing figures will be released real time until the last minute of the election. The game will be launched at noon of December 23, and the design of PopCon will also be revamped.

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong people between 6 and 13 December, 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that people's trust in the HKSAR government has dropped back to a 6-month low, after it rebounded three months ago. Those who trust our local government now stands at 35%, and the net trust stands at positive 3 percentage points. On the other hand, people's trust in the central government and Taiwan government have not changed much, with net trust standing at positive 1 and negative 12 percentage points respectively. Compared to three months ago, people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan has slightly increased to 67%. As for the confidence indicators, compared to three months ago, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, although positive, has dropped to a new low since October 2003, with a net confidence of positive 18 percentage points. People's confidence in "one country, two systems", although positive, has also dropped significantly to a new low since June 2004, with a net confidence of positive 12 percentage points, probably due to recent vote-rigging suspicions in District Council elections, and also due to recent developments in the CE Election. Regarding people's view on whether "one country, two systems" is applicable to Taiwan, the positive side has also dropped to around 40%, giving a negative confidence again since March this year. People's confidence in reunification across the strait, however, has remained stable over the past three months, with a net confidence of positive 4 percentage points, while those supporting and opposing Taiwan rejoining the UN each stands at about 40%. Further analysis shows that those of age 18-29 distrust the Central government much more than the older respondents. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rates of the surveys are 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 67.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems", as well as various Taiwan issues. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011. Herewith the contact information for the latest surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
6-13/12/2011	1,005	67.4%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, people's confidence in the future and the views towards various Taiwan issues are summarized below:

Date of survey	12/2010^[7]	3/2011^[7]	6/2011	9/2011	12/2011	Latest Change
Total sample size^[8]	1,013	1,003/1,000	1,034	1,038	1,005	--
Overall response rate	67.4%/65.0%	65.4%/64.2%	66.5%	66.2%	67.4%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[9]	--
Trust in HKSAR Government^[10]	44%^[11]	42%	34%	44%^[11]	35+/-4%	-9%^[11]
Distrust in HKSAR Government^[10]	22%^[11]	28%^[11]	28%	28%	32+/-4%	+4%
Mean value^[10]	3.2+/-0.1^[11] (Base=996)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base =553)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base =503)	3.2+/-0.1^[11] (Base =487)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=529)	-0.2^[11]
Trust in Beijing Government^[10]	37%^[11]	44%^[11]	31%	35%	33+/-4%	-2%
Distrust in Beijing Government^[10]	32%^[11]	24%^[11]	31%	33%	32+/-4%	-1%
Mean value^[10]	3.0+/-0.1^[11] (Base =974)	3.2+/-0.1^[11] (Base =515)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base =488)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base =552)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base =527)	--
Trust in Taiwan Government^[10]	14%	19%^[11]	16%	16%	18+/-3%	+2%
Distrust in Taiwan Government^[10]	42%^[11]	43%	32%	34%	30+/-4%	-4%
Mean value^[10]	2.5+/-0.1 (Base =831)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base =434)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base =419)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base =364)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base =378)	+0.2^[11]
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate	75%^[11]	63%^[11]	65%	63%	67+/-4%	+4%
Taiwan independence: Support rate	15%	20%^[11]	19%	20%	20+/-3%	--
Confidence in HK's future	62%^[11]	63%	59%	59%	55+/-4%	-4%
No-confidence in HK's future	30%^[11]	32%	31%	34%	37+/-4%	+3%
Confidence in China's future	77%^[11]	83%^[11]	75%	73%	73+/-4%	--
No-confidence in China's future	15%	10%^[11]	15%	20%^[11]	19+/-3%	-1%
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	61%	62%	59%	58%	52+/-4%	-6%^[11]
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	32%	32%	34%	33%	40+/-4%	+7%^[11]
Believed "one country, two systems" was applicable to Taiwan	50%	40%^[11]	44%	46%	40+/-4%	-6%^[11]
Believed "one country, two systems" was not applicable to Taiwan	38%	42%	40%	37%	44+/-4%	+7%^[11]
Confidence in cross-strait reunification	49%	45%	46%	44%	45+/-4%	+1%
No confidence in cross-strait reunification	42%^[11]	44%	40%	43%	41+/-4%	-2%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate	42%^[11]	--	39%	36%	39+/-4%	+3%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate	43%	--	37%	41%	39+/-4%	-2%

[7] Surveys on trust and distrust of the HKSAR Government, Beijing Government and Taiwan Government and confidence in HK's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" were conducted in 13-16/12/2010 and 1-9/3/2011 respectively. And, surveys on Taiwan independence, applicability of "one country, two systems" in Taiwan and confidence in cross-strait reunification were conducted in 6-10/12/2010 and 8-14/3/2011 respectively.
[8] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 513 to 557, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 35% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 33% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 18% trusted the Taiwan Government. The mean scores of these trust indicators are 3.0, 3.0 and 2.8 respectively, meaning close to "half-half" in general. On the other hand, 55% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 73% had confidence in China's future, while 52% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems". In addition, latest survey revealed that 67% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas 20% showed support. As for the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan, 40% gave a positive view while 44% gave a negative answer. 45% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 41% expressed no confidence. 39% supported the rejoining the United Nations of Taiwan while 39% opposed.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents' trust in Beijing Central Government by age:

Date of survey: 6-13/12/11		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Percentage of trust/ distrust in Beijing Government^[12]	Trust	25+/-9% (24)	29+/-6% (67)	39+/-6% (90)	33+/-4% (181)
	Half-half	31+/-10% (29)	36+/-6% (81)	24+/-6% (54)	30+/-4% (164)
	Distrust	44+/-10% (41)	30+/-6% (68)	28+/-6% (65)	32+/-4% (175)
	Don't know/ hard to say	0+/-0% (0)	5+/-3% (10)	9+/-4% (20)	5+/-2% (30)
	Total	100% (94)	100% (227)	100% (229)	100% (550)
	Mean value^[12]	2.7+/-0.2 (Base=94)	2.9+/-0.2 (Base=217)	3.1+/-0.2 (Base=209)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=520)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from September 5 to 10, 2011 while this survey was conducted from December 6 to 13, 2011. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

13/12/11	CLP Power and Hongkong Electric are demanding tariff increases 9.2 % and 6.3% respectively from next year.
12/12/11	A total of 65,500 registered voters voted in the 2011 Election Committee Subsector Elections.
4/12/11	ICAC investigates the suspected vote-rigging case happened in the District Council Election.
29/11/11	Tuen Mun Hospital has been hit by a series of blunders in the past seven months.
17/11/11	Henry Tang and Leung Chun-ying said the announcement of their candidacy for next year's Chief Executive Election will be made at the end of this month.
12/11/11	President Hu Jintao has reminded the SAR Government to get prepared for financial crisis.
6/11/11	About 1.2 million registered electors have cast their votes in the 2011 District Council election.
13/10/11	Donald Tsang regarded legislator Raymond Wong behaved like a "thug" and a "triad" member".
12/10/11	The Chief Executive Donald Tsang announces the 2011-12 Policy Address.
9/10/11	Former Chinese president Jiang Zemin attends the 100th anniversary of the 1911 revolution ceremony.
8/10/11	Chief Executive Donald Tsang admits having flaws in dealing with the housing issue.
19/9/11	Legislative Council held a special meeting to discuss ATV false positive events
9/9/11	Deputy Secretary for Labour & Welfare Roy Tang will become Director of Broadcasting.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that people's trust in the HKSAR government has dropped back to a 6-month low, after it rebounded three months ago. Those who trust our local government now stands at 35%, and the net trust stands at positive 3 percentage points. On the other hand, people's trust in the central government and Taiwan government has not changed much, with net trust standing at positive 1 and negative 12 percentage points respectively. Compared to three months ago, people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan has slightly increased to 67%. As for the confidence indicators, compared to three months ago, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, although positive, has dropped to a new low since Oct 2003, with a net confidence of positive 18 percentage points. People's confidence in "one country, two systems", although positive, has also dropped significantly to a new low since June 2004, with a net confidence of positive 12 percentage points, probably due to recent vote-rigging suspicions in District Council elections, and also due to recent developments in the CE Election. Regarding people's view on whether "one country, two systems" is applicable to Taiwan, the positive side has also dropped to around 40%, giving a negative confidence again since March this year. People's confidence in reunification across the strait, however, has remained stable over the past three months, with a net confidence of positive 4 percentage points, while those supporting and opposing Taiwan rejoining the UN each stands at about 40%. Further analysis shows that those of age 18-29 distrust the Central government much more than the older respondents. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

December 28, 2011 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: Hong Kong people's ethnic identity