HKU POP releases ratings of top 10 political groupsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the rankings of the top 10 political groups in November by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted after the District Council elections shows that People Power enters the "top 10" for the first time, to replace HKASPDMC. In terms of support ratings, compared to three months ago, 6 out of 10 political groups have gone up. Among them, those with increases beyond sampling error include DP, ADPL, DAB and NWS, up by 3.5, 2.7, 2.7 and 2.4 marks respectively. LSD's rating drops significantly by 6.8 marks, while that of People Power also drops significantly by 6.6 marks, compared to last time before it enters "top 10". Among the "top 10" groups, only NWS and FTU have more than 50 marks, while CP and LSD both register their own record lows, probably because of their results in the District Council elections. In terms of relative rankings, NWS goes up 2 positions to the top, FTU goes down 1 position to rank 2nd, ADPL up 2 positions to rank 3rd, HKCTU down 2 positions to rank 4th, DP and LP up 3 and 2 positions respectively to rank 5th and 7th, CP down 2 positions to rank 8th, while the rankings of remaining political parties who are on the list consecutively have not changed much. It should be noted, however, that our "Top 10 Political Groups" only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings of top ten political groups registered fall between +/-1.6 and +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 72%.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. As a general practice, all the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings[5]
7-17/11/2011 (First stage naming survey)	1,027	65.7%	+/-3%
18-25/11/2011 (Second stage rating survey)	1,027	72.2%	+/-2.8

[5] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

 

The research design of our "Top ten political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from November 7 to 17. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party (DP), Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), The Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), People Power and League of Social Democrats (LSD) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted from November 18 to 25, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:

Date of survey	15-19/2/2011	23-31/5/2011	23-30/8/2011	18-25/11/2011		Latest change
Sample base	501-586	552-628	522-605	502-606		--
Overall response rate	65.9%	66.1%	66.4%	72.2%		--
Finding / Recog rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[6]	Recog %	--
NWS	52.8{5}	51.0{2}	50.4{3}	52.8+/-1.9{1}	64%	+2.4[8]
FTU	52.5{6}	50.4{3}[8]	50.8{1}	52.3+/-1.9{2}	81%	+1.5
ADPL	48.5{7}	48.3{6}	47.2{5}	49.9+/-1.8{3}	71%	+2.7[8]
HKCTU	56.2{2}[8]	49.2 {4}[8] [9]	50.7{2}	49.3+/-2.1{4}	76%	-1.4
DP	53.3{3}[8] [9]	47.7{7}[8]	45.3{8}[8]	48.8+/-1.6{5}	87%	+3.5[8]
DAB	44.2{9}[8]	46.7{8}[8]	45.5{7}	48.2+/-2.0{6}	85%	+2.7[8]
LP	44.6{8}	43.2{9}	44.7{9}	45.2+/-1.6{7}	78%	+0.5
CP	53.3{4}[8] [9]	49.2{5}[8] [9]	46.1{6}[8]	44.4+/-2.2{8}	76%	-1.7
People Power	--	36.3[7]	34.9[7]	28.3+/-2.4{9}	79%	-6.6[8]
LSD	37.3{10}	32.7{10}[8]	32.6{10}	25.8+/-2.4{10}	79%	-6.8[8]
New People's Party	45.8[7]	43.1[7] [8]	46.4[7] [8]	49.8+/-2.2[7]	62%	+3.4[8]
NeoDemocrats				44.6+/-2.8[7]	37%	--
HKASPDMC	57.5{1}[8]	51.7{1}[8]	48.8{4}[8]	--	--	--
Frontier	46.9[7]	--	--	--	--	--

[6] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[7] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] In late May 2011, the ratings of HKCTU and CP are 49.194 and 49.187 respectively in 3 decimal places. Therefore, HKCTU and CP ranked at 4th and 5th places respectively.

 

Findings obtained in second half of November showed that, the best-known political group was Neighbourhood and Worker's Service Centre (NWS) which attained 52.8 marks. Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) scored 52.3 marks and ranked 2nd. The 3rd to 8th places were Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL), Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU), Democratic Party (DP), Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP) and Civic Party (CP) attaining 49.9, 49.3, 48.8, 48.2, 45.2 and 44.4 marks respectively. The 9th and 10th places fell to People Power and League of Social Democrats (LSD), with a respective score of 28.3 and 25.8. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 50.6 marks. For this latest survey, New People's Party and NeoDemocrats obtained a support rating of 49.8 and 44.6 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	15-19/2/11	23-31/5/11	23-20/8/11	18-25/11/11	No. of times on top 10	Average rating [10]	Overall ranking[11]
NWS	52.8	51.0	50.4	52.8	4	51.8	{1}
FTU	52.5	50.4	50.8	52.3	4	51.5	{2}
HKCTU	56.2	49.2	50.7	49.3	4	51.4	{3}
DP	53.3	47.7	45.3	48.8	4	48.8	{4}
ADPL	48.5	48.3	47.2	49.9	4	48.5	{5}
CP	53.3	49.2	46.1	44.4	4	48.2	{6}
DAB	44.2	46.7	45.5	48.2	4	46.1	{7}
LP	44.6	43.2	44.7	45.2	4	44.4	{8}
LSD	37.3	32.7	32.6	25.8	4	32.1	{9}
HKASPDMC	57.5	51.7	48.8	-	3	52.7	{10}
People Power	-	-	-	28.3	1	28.3	{11}

[10] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 12 months.
[11] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

 

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, the top nine political groups were listed for four times. NWS was in the top rank, achieving an average rating of 51.8 marks. FTU and HKCTU ranked 2nd to 3rd, attaining 51.5 and 51.4 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 4th to 9th ranks fell to DP, ADPL, CP, DAB, LP and LSD, with respective average ratings of 48.8, 48.5, 48.2, 46.1, 44.4 and 32.1 marks. HKASPDMC was listed for three times while People Power was listed once, now ranked the 10th and 11th with 52.7 and 28.3 marks.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from August 23 to 30, 2011 while this survey was conducted from November 18 to 25, 2011. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

7/11/11	The 2011 District Council election cumulative turnout rate of about 41.4%.
6/11/11	About 1.2 million registered electors have cast their votes in the 2011 District Council election.
26/10/11	Right-of-abode applications for domestic helpers will continue to be withheld.
18/10/11	The Next Media Limited Chairperson Jimmy Lai's donation record was found in the internet.
13/10/11	Donald Tsang regarded legislator Raymond Wong behaved like a "thug" and a "triad" member.
12/10/11	The Chief Executive Donald Tsang announces the 2011-12 Policy Address.
8/10/11	Chief Executive Donald Tsang admits having flaws in dealing with the housing issue.
27/9/11	The Government won in the judicial review of the environmental impact assessment report on the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge project.
19/9/11	Legislative Council held a special meeting to discuss ATV false positive events
1/9/11	Demonstrators disrupted a public forum on filling Legislative Council vacancies.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey of "Top 10 Political Groups" conducted after the District Council elections shows that People Power enters the "top 10" for the first time, to replace HKASPDMC. In terms of support ratings, compared to three months ago, 6 out of 10 political groups have gone up. Among them, those with increases beyond sampling error include DP, ADPL, DAB and NWS, up by 3.5, 2.7, 2.7 and 2.4 marks respectively. LSD's rating drops significantly by 6.8 marks, while that of People Power also drops significantly by 6.6 marks, compared to last time before it enters "top 10". Among the "top 10" groups, only NWS and FTU have more than 50 marks, while CP and LSD both register their own record lows, probably because of their results in the District Council elections. In terms of relative rankings, NWS goes up 2 positions to the top, FTU goes down 1 position to rank 2nd, ADPL up 2 positions to rank 3rd, HKCTU down 2 positions to rank 4th, DP and LP up 3 and 2 positions respectively to rank 5th and 7th, CP down 2 positions to rank 8th, while the rankings of remaining political parties who are on the list consecutively have not changed much. It should be noted, however, that our "Top 10 Political Groups" only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. As to what events have affected the ups and downs of the popularity of these groups, readers can make their own judgment after reading through detailed records placed in our "Opinion Daily"."

• December 8, 2011 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: People's feelings towards different governments and peoples.
• December 13, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials