HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack
| Press Release on November 29, 2011 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysiss | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,023 Hong Kong people between 15 and 21 November 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has slightly increased to 49.8 marks, while his approval rate drops significantly to 24% and disapproval rate jumps significantly to 67%. His net popularity now stands at negative 43 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, there is not much change compared to one month ago again, and its net satisfaction rate now stands at negative 21 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the post-80s are more critical of Tsang's appointment as CE, with a high disapproval rate exceeding 75% again. They are also most dissatisfied with the government's performance, with a dissatisfaction rate reaching 50%. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 70%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of this survey is 1,023 successful interviews, not 1,023 x 69.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". [4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. [5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 521. [9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. [10] These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 770 and 843 respectively.
| Indepth Analysis In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang as well as the satisfaction rate of SARG performance by respondents' age:
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Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP. For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 31 October to 9 November, 2011 while this survey was conducted from 15 to 21 November, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our latest survey shows that the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has slightly increased to 49.8 marks, while his approval rate drops significantly to 24% and disapproval rate jumps significantly to 67%. His net popularity now stands at negative 43 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, there is not much change compared to one month ago again, and its net satisfaction rate now stands at negative 21 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the post-80s are more critical of Tsang's appointment as CE, with a high disapproval rate exceeding 75% again. They are also most dissatisfied with the government's performance, with a dissatisfaction rate reaching 50%. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"." | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Future Release (Tentative)
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| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysiss | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
