HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack
| Press Release on November 15, 2011 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract
The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong people between October 31 and November 9 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang has somewhat increased compared to our last survey. His support rating now stands at 48.7 marks, approval rate at 29%, disapproval rate at 61%, giving a net popularity of negative 32 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, the popularity of CS Stephen Lam has also somewhat increased from its low level. His latest support rating is 40.4 marks, approval rate 22%, disapproval rate 32%, giving a net popularity of negative 10 percentage points. FS John Tsang has a support rating of 51.7 marks, approval rate 35%, disapproval rate 20%, and his net popularity at positive 15 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 60.6 marks, approval rate 63%, disapproval rate 3%, and his net popularity stands at positive 60 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rate of four Directors have gone up, seven have gone down, one remains unchanged. Those registered significant changes in approval rates beyond sampling error include Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, up by 5 and down by 5 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Tsang Tak-sing and Michael Suen register negative popularity, at negative 1 and 18 percentage points respectively. Carrie Lam continues to be the most popular Director. According to POP's standard and counting only incumbents, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee, Matthew Cheung and Eva Cheng now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of York Chow, Edward Yau, John Tsang, Tsang Tak-sing, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue, Raymond Tam and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang "depressing". No official falls under the category of "disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of this survey is 1,002 successful interviews, not 1,002 x 64.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". [4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. [5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.
Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 770 and 843 respectively. [10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
[11] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [13] The Government announced the appointment of former Secretary of Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam as the Chief Secretary on September 30. [14] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
[15] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[16] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [17] The government announced the appointment of Raymond Tam as the new Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs on September 30. [18] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. [19] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam Chi-yuen is 27.2% while the approval rate of Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing is 26.9%. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 48.7 marks, and 29% supported him as the Chief Executive, his net approval rate is negative 32%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Stephen Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 40.4, 51.7 and 60.6 marks, and 22%, 35% and 63% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are negative 10%, positive 15% and positive 60% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, attaining 62%. Her net approval rate is positive 52%. The 2nd to 5th places belonged to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, with approval rates 61%, 51%, 50% and 49% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 49%, 41%, 33% and 26% respectively., Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So ranked 6th to 12th, as they gained 43%, 41%, 35%, 27%, 27%, 25% and 22% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 29%, positive 34%, positive 28%, positive 20%, negative 1%, negative 18% and positive 10%. In other words, only Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee, Matthew Cheung and Eva Cheng scored approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 13 to 20 October, 2011 while this survey was conducted from October 31 to November 9, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang has somewhat increased compared to our last survey. His support rating now stands at 48.7 marks, approval rate at 29%, disapproval rate at 61%, giving a net popularity of negative 32 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, the popularity of CS Stephen Lam has also somewhat increased from its low level. His latest support rating is 40.4 marks, approval rate 22%, disapproval rate 32%, giving a net popularity of negative 10 percentage points. FS John Tsang has a support rating of 51.7 marks, approval rate 35%, disapproval rate 20%, and his net popularity at positive 15 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 60.6 marks, approval rate 63%, disapproval rate 3%, and his net popularity stands at positive 60 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rate of four Directors have gone up, seven have gone down, one remains unchanged. Those registered significant changes in approval rates beyond sampling error include Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, up by 5 and down by 5 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Tsang Tak-sing and Michael Suen register negative popularity, at negative 1 and 18 percentage points respectively. Carrie Lam continues to be the most popular Director. According to POP's standard and counting only incumbents, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee, Matthew Cheung and Eva Cheng now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of York Chow, Edward Yau, John Tsang, Tsang Tak-sing, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue, Raymond Tam and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang "depressing". No official falls under the category of "disastrous". The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
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Future Release (Tentative)
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