"POP-NOW Public Sentiment Index Survey" released for the ninth timeBack

Since its establishment in 1991, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has been conducting different types of opinion studies on social and political issues, as well as providing research services for different organizations, on condition that POP would design and conduct all studies independently, and could also release the findings for public consumption. In January 2011, POP came into agreement with the "now News Channel" for a project called "Public Sentiment Index". The main objective of the project is to demonstrate, by focusing on ongoing discussions of public sentiment, how independent research institute and professional news media investigate, analyze, report and comment on public opinion, including the explanation and promotion of professional ethics of opinion studies. The project comprises conducting regular opinion surveys and other public opinion studies. The survey results will first be released in the "now News Channel", followed by POP press releases for public consumption. "now News Channel" agrees to POP uploading these programmes to the POP Site for public education, while POP agrees that "now News Channel" uses these findings for productions without POP's involvement. This is the ninth release of the survey series, the last one was released on October 10. Please cite the source of the figures when using them.

The latest survey findings released by POP through now News Channel today have been weighted according to the provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 mid-year. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages[1]
25/10-3/11/2011	1,009	67%	+/-3%

[1] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Date of survey		21-25/7/11	23-30/8/11	26/9-3/10/11	25/10-3/11/11	Latest change[3]
Sample base		1,011	1,026	1,000	1,009	--
Overall response rate		67.6%	66.8%	66.3%	66.9%	--
Latest result		Finding and error [2]	Finding and error [2]	Finding and error [2]	Finding and error [2]	--
Satisfaction rating of overall society's conditions (0-100)		--	--	51.1+/-1.2	52.1+/-1.1	+1.0
Will you use the word "angry" to describe your feeling towards current Hong Kong society??	Yes	25[3]+/-3%	30[3]+/-3%	23[3]+/-3%	21+/-3%	-2%
	No	72[3]+/-3%	68[3]+/-3%	76[3]+/-3%	76+/-3%	--
Rating of "anger" level (0-100)		48.1[3]+/-1.4	52.9[3]+/-1.6	49.5[3]+/-1.5	48.7+/-1.5	-0.8

[2] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[3] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results show that the overall satisfaction rating of society's current conditions now stands at 52.1 marks. Besides, 21% of the respondents would describe themselves as "angry" and 76% would not describe themselves as "angry". The mean score of "anger" now stands at 48.7 marks. Please see the following chart for more details:

Chart I: The trend of "percentage of anger" and "rating of anger"

Over the past 3 months, what incidents in Hong Kong society made you feel angry? (ask those who self-reported "angry", open-ended question, multiple answers allowed) ^[5]

Date of survey	26/9-3/10/11	25/10-3/11/11	Latest Change
Sample base	1,000	1,009	--
Overall response rate	66.3%	66.9%	--
Latest result	Finding and Error[4]	Finding and Error[4]	--
Arguments about foreign domestic helpers' right of abode	4+/-1%	5+/-1%	+1%
High property price/housing problems	5+/-1%	5+/-1%	--
Radical actions by some Legislative Councillors like Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung	--	4+/-1%	--
The Policy Address	--	3+/-1%	--
Stephan Sui-lung Lam becoming the Chief Secretary for Administration	--	3+/-1%	--
The Budget Talk (including the arrangement of giving $6000)	3+/-1%	2+/-1%	-1%
Pregnant women from Mainland China giving birth to children in Hong Kong	2+/-1%	2+/-1%	--
High inflation	2[6]+/-1%	2+/-1%	--
Arguments related to the visit of Li Keqiang in Hong Kong (including how the police handle demonstration, the arrangement of the University of Hong Kong and the freedom of press etc.)	4[6]+/-1%	2+/-1%	-2%[6]
Chief Executive Donald Tsang's performance in the Legislative Council meeting e.g. the "thug" and "triad" member comment	--	2+/-1%	--
The appointment of the new RTHK Director of Broadcasting	<1+/-1%	2+/-1%	+2%[6]
The performance of the suspected candidates of the Chief Executive Election	--	2+/-1%	--
Others	4+/-1%	6+/-1%	+2%[6]
Don't know	3+/-1%	2+/-1%	-1%

[4] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[5] The question asked only those who said they were "angry", but all percentages shown are based on overall sample.
[6] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

With regard to Stephan Sui-lung Lam being appointed as the Chief Executive of Administration, will you use the word "angry" to describe your feelings towards this?	Yes	No
	31+/-3%	62+/-3%

Over the past 3 months, what incidents in the Hong Kong society made people angry? Results show that a respective of 5% of the overall sample mentioned "Arguments about foreign domestic helpers' right of abode" and "High property price/housing problems". Other answers include "Radical movements by some Legislative Councillors like Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung" (4%), "The Policy Address" (3%), "Stephan Sui-lung Lam becoming the Chief Executive for Administration" (3%) and so on. Moreover, results showed that 31% of the sample would describe themselves as "angry" while 62% describe themselves as not "angry" toward the appointment of Stephan Sui-lung Lam becoming the Chief Executive of Administration.

The satisfaction rate towards the current social conditions:

Date of survey		23-30/8/11	26/9-3/10/11	25/10-3/11/11	Latest change
Sample base		1,026	1,000	1,009	--
Overall response rate		66.8%	66.3%	66.9%	--
Latest result		Finding and error[7]	Finding and error[7]	Finding and error[7]	--
Economic condition	Satisfaction rate[8]	21[9]+/-3%	28[9]+/-3%	32+/-3%	+4%[9]
	Dissatisfaction rate[8]	52[9]+/-3%	44[9]+/-3%	42+/-3%	-2%
	Mean value[8]	2.5[9]+/-0.1 (Base=1,012)	2.7[9]+/-0.1 (Base=982)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=998)	+0.1
	Importance level (1-10)	7.1+/-0.1	--	7.2+/-0.1	--
Livelihood condition	Satisfaction rate[8]	16+/-2%	20[9]+/-3%	22+/-3%	+2%
	Dissatisfaction rate[8]	60+/-3%	52[9]+/-3%	53+/-3%	+1%
	Mean value[8]	2.3+/-0.1 (Base=1,009)	2.5[9]+/-0.1 (Base=979)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=989)	+0.1
	Importance level (1-10)	7.1+/-0.1	--	7.1+/-0.1	--
Political condition	Satisfaction rate[8]	13+/-2%	18[9]+/-2%	19+/-2%	+1%
	Dissatisfaction rate[8]	63[9]+/-3%	55[9]+/-3%	55+/-3%	--
	Mean value[8]	2.2+/-0.1 (Base=993)	2.4[9]+/-0.1 (Base=956)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=971)	+0.1
	Importance level (1-10)	6.3+/-0.1	--	6.3+/-0.1	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

In the three different areas, 32% of respondents expressed that they are satisfied with the economic conditions while 42% are dissatisfied with that. In the area of livelihood conditions, 22% said that they are satisfied while 53% are dissatisfied with this. In addition, there are 19% satisfied with the political conditions, 55% are dissatisfied with this. The mean value of economic, livelihood and political conditions are 2.8, 2.6 and 2.5 marks respectively. Moreover, the importance rating of economic, livelihood and political conditions are 7.2, 7.1 and 6.3 marks respectively.

The integrated public sentiment index is composed of people's satisfaction towards the governance and social livelihood. It aims at using a simple figure to represent people's sentiment. The following is the integrated public sentiment index since January 2011:

Date of Survey	Base	Integrated Public Sentiment Index
10/2011	1,009	85.5
9/2011	1,000	83.7
8/2011	1,026	76.9
7/2011	1,011	79.6
6/2011	1,011	80.1
5/2011	1,007	86.8
4/2011	1,032	88.1
3/2011	1,018	89.8
2/2011	1,013	90.2
1/2011	1,035	97.6

The finding shows that, on a scale of 0-200 marks, the latest "Integrated public sentiment index" is 85.5 marks. The following is the trend of the "Integrated Public Sentiment Index" and "Rating of anger" since January 2011:

Chart II: Trend of "Integrated Public Sentiment Index" and "Rating of anger"

Note: The following commentary is extracted and enhanced from the comments made by the Director of Public Opinion Programme Dr Robert Chung on November 14, 2011 in the "now News Channel" programme "News Magazine", in the "now Survey on Public Sentiment Index" segment. Some questions and answers are provided by POP.

Question: What is the latest trend of the public grievance figures?

Answer: The latest survey seems to show that public grievance is subsiding after reaching its peak in late August. This includes public's overall satisfaction with the social condition, their level of anger, as well as their satisfaction towards the political, economic and livelihood conditions. The District Council election did not raise people's grievance, while angers caused by Stephan Lam's promotion to become the Chief Executive of Administration was also not serious.

Question: Can these figures help interpret the results of the District Council election?

Answer: The survey shows that public grievance did not grow as District Council elections drew near. This means that the market for radical movements is not prominent and it seems to have predicted the defeat of the radical groups. Moreover, since there was no political issue at that moment, the controversy over foreign domestic helpers' right of abode became the central issue. This also seems to have predicted the set back of political groups who sided with the domestic helpers. In a way, this sign was already revealed when we released our ratings of legislative councilors a few days before the election.

Question: The latest Public Sentiment Index is 85.5 marks, what does this mean?

Answer: The "norm" for the Public Sentiment Index is 100 marks and 85.5 marks belongs to the lowest 15%. In other words, using the past 20 years as the reference period, such a low number only occurs once in 7 times and the government has to be careful in handling this. The SARG is now at its lows in terms of popularity, while the Chief Executive election is about to begin. The government can fall into a governance crisis any time, so it must be very careful during this transitional period.