HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of Executive CouncillorsBack

Press Release on November 8, 2011

Abstract

The latest survey conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong shows that after Leung Chun-ying resigned from the Executive Council, compared to three months ago, the only significant change in the popularity ratings of "top 5" non-official Executive Councillors goes to Ronald Arculli, whose rating goes up by 2.6 marks. In terms of absolute ratings, only Ronald Arculli gets more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Ronald Arculli remains on the first position, while Leong Che-hung and Cheng Yiu-tong both go up one position to become second and third. Lau Kong-wah re-enters the list to occupy the fourth position, while Lau Wong-fat remains at the fifth. It should be noted, however, that our list of "top five" only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figures is below +/-2.3 marks. The response rate of the rating survey is 65%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey on top 5 Executive Councillors is 1,040 successful interviews, not 1,040 x 69.8% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,016 successful interviews, not 1,016 x 65.5% response rate.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of Executive Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in Mid-year 2011.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings^[6]
13-20/10/2011 (First stage naming survey)	1,040	69.8%	+/-3%
25/10/-2/11/2011 (Second stage rating survey)	1,016	65.5%	+/-2.3

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top 5 Executive Councillors" is similar to that of our "Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid October. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Latest findings of the naming survey are as follows:

Date of survey	14-21/10/10	5-7/1/11	4-12/4/11	11-20/7/11	13-20/10/11	Latest Change in Ranking
Sample base	1,013	575	1,005	1,028	1,040^[7]	--
Overall response rate	65.4%	66.4%	68.5%	66.4%	69.8%	--
Finding/ Error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Ronald Arculli	6%{3}	4%{3}	5%{4}	3%{6}	15+/-3%{1}	↑5
Lau Kong-wah	6%{4}	4%{4}	5%{5}	2%{7}	7+/-2%{2} ^[8]	↑5
Cheng Yiu-tong	4%{5}	4%{5}	7%{2}	7%{2}	7+/-2%{3} ^[8]	↓1
Lau Wong-fat	19%{2}	5%{2}	6%{3}	4%{4}	5+/-2%{4} ^[9]	--
Anthony Cheung	2%{6}	1%{7}	3%{6}	6%{3}	5+/-2%{5} ^[9]	↓2
Leong Che-hung	2%{7}	1%{8}	2%{8}	4%{5}	4+/-2%{6}	↓1
Anna Wu	2%{8}	<1%{12}	2%{9}	1%{9}	2+/-1%{7}	↑2
Laura M Cha	1%{9}	2%{6}	2%{7}	1%{8}	1+/-1%{8} ^[10]	--
V Nee Yeh	<1%{12}	0%{13}	0%{13}	0%	1+/-1%{9} ^[10]	--
Marvin Cheung	<1%{11}	0%{13}	<1%{10}	<1%{10}	<1+/-1%{10} ^[11]	--
Charles Lee	<1%{13}	<1%{9}	<1%{12}	0%	<1+/-1%{11} ^[11]	--
Lawrence Lau	1%{10}	<1%{10}	<1%{11}	0%	<1+/-1% {12} ^[11]	--
Marjorie Yang	<1%{14}	<1%{11}	0%{13}	0%	0%{13}	--
Leung Chun-ying^[12]	24%{1}	16%{1}	23%{1}	34%{1}	--	--
Wrong answer	21%	19%	15%	27%	33%
Don't know/hard to say	55%	65%	64%	50%	51%

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings in our naming survey. Councillors with the same recognition rate will be ranked according to the decimal place of the corresponding percentages. Please refer to the POP Site for detailed figures of the previous surveys. The error margin of previous surveys can also be found at the POP Site. The sub-sample size for this survey is 545.
[8] The percentages of respondents who could name Lau Kong-wah and Cheng Yiu-tong were 7.3% and 6.6%. Hence Lau Kong-wah ranked the 2nd, while Cheng Yiu-tong was placed at the 3rd rank.
[9] The percentages of respondents who could name Lau Wong-fat and Anthony Cheung were 5.1% and 4.9%. Hence Lau Wong-fat ranked the 4th, while Anthony Cheung was placed at the 5th rank.
[10] The percentages of respondents who could name Laura M Cha and V Nee Yeh were 1.3% and 0.5%. Hence Laura M Cha ranked the 8th, while V Nee Yeh was placed at the 9th rank.
[11] The percentages of respondents who could name Marvin Cheung, Charles Lee and Lawrence Lau were 0.3%, 0.26% and 0.1%. Hence Marvin Cheung ranked the 10th, while Charles Lee was placed at the 11th rank and Lawrence Lau was placed at the 12th rank.
[12] Leung Chun-ying resigned as Executive Council convenor on October 4, 2011.

The naming survey conducted in mid October showed that Ronald Arculli was named most frequently with a recognition rate of 15%. Lau Kong-wah, Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Wong-fat and Anthony Cheung with recognition rate of 7%, 7%, 5%, and 5%, and ranked the 2nd to 5th. However, 33% made a wrong attempt at citing Executive Councillors (non-official) while 51% had no clue.

Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in second half of October, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	26-30/10/10	11-19/1/11	15-29/4/11	21-25/7/11	25/10-2/11/11		Latest change
Sample base	1,009	520-549	558-626	551-642	550-660		--
Overall response rate	63.3%	66.1%	59.7%	67.1%	65.5%		--
Finding/ Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error ^[13]	Recognition rate	--
Ronald Arculli	49.5 {1}	53.6 {1}	51.3 {1}^[15]	49.0{1}^[15]	51.6{1}+/-1.8	76.7%	+2.6^[15]
Leong Che-hung	--	--	--	47.4{3}	48.1{2} +/-2.0	74.8%	+0.7
Cheng Yiu-tong	43.9 {3}^[15]	49.6 {3}	43.9 {4}^[15]	42.2{4}	44.0{3} +/-2.3	73.0%	+1.8
Lau Kong-wah	43.5 {4}	48.6 {4}	44.2 {3}^[15]	--	42.2{4} +/-2.1	74.1%	--
Lau Wong-fat	33.1 {5}	37.6 {5}	37.3 {5}	38.0{5}	38.6 {5}+/-2.0	84.9%	+0.6
Anthony Cheung	48.4 ^[12][15]	--	48.5^[14]	47.5^[14]	50.0 +/-1.9^[14]	61.6%	+2.5^[15]
Leung Chun-ying^[16]	47.5 {2}^[15]	51.2 {2}	47.6 {2}^[15]	48.1{2}	--	--	--
Laura M Cha	--	48.6^[14]	--	--	--	--	--

[13] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3 marks at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[14] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] Leung Chun-ying resigned as Executive Council convenor on October 4, 2011.

The latest rating survey conducted in second half of October showed that Ronald Arculli was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 51.6 marks. The 2nd rank went to Leong Che-hung with 48.1 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Cheng Yiu-tong, Lau Kong-wah and Lau Wong-fat with 44.0, 42.2 and 38.6 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 44.9 marks. For this latest survey, Anthony Cheung obtained a support rating of 50.0 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	11-19/1/11	15-29/4/11	21-25/7/11	25/10-2/11/11	No.of times on top 5	Average rating ^[17]	Overall ranking ^[18]
Ronald Arculli	53.6	51.3	49.0	51.6	4	51.4	1
Cheng Yiu-tong	49.6	43.9	42.2	44.0	4	44.9	2
Lau Wong-fat	37.6	37.3	38.0	38.6	4	37.9	3
Leung Chun-ying^[19]	51.2	47.6	48.1	-	3	48.9	4
Lau Kong-wah	48.6	44.2	-	42.2	3	45.0	5
Leong Che-hung	-	-	47.4	48.1	2	47.7	6

[17] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
[18] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
[19] Leung Chun-ying resigned as Executive Council convenor on October 4, 2011.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. Ronald Arculli, Cheng Yiu-tong, and Lau Wong-fat ranked 1st to 3rd place respectively and achieved average ratings of 51.4, 44.9 and 37.9 marks. Leung Chun-ying and Lau Kong-wah have been on the list for three times with average ratings of 48.9 and 45.0 marks, ranked the 4th and 5th respectively. Leong Che-hung has been on the list twice with an average rating of 47.7 marks and ranked at 6th place.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from July 21 to 25, 2011 while this survey was conducted from October 25 to November 2, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

26/10/2011	Right-of-abode applications for domestic helpers will continue to be withheld.
12/10/2011	The Chief Executive Donald Tsang announces the 2011-12 Policy Address.
10/10/2011	The Government announces new regulation on the content of property sale report.
8/10/2011	Chief Executive Donald Tsang admits having flaws in dealing with the housing issue.
30/9/2011	The Government will appeal against the court ruling on case about the right of abode of foreign domestic helpers.
28/9/2011	Chief Secretary for Administration Henry Tang resigned.
16/9/2011	Seven sites will be sold by tender in the coming quarter.
6/9/2011	The Lands Department held the fifth land auction of the 2011-12 financial year.
1/9/2011	Demonstrators disrupted a public forum on filling Legislative Council vacancies.
16/8/2011	Vice-Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang arrived in Hong Kong for a three-day official visit.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The survey conducted after Leung Chun-ying resigned from the Executive Council shows that, compared to three months ago, the only significant change in the popularity ratings of "top 5" non-official Executive Councillors goes to Ronald Arculli, whose rating goes up by 2.6 marks. In terms of absolute ratings, only Ronald Arculli gets more than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Ronald Arculli remains on the first position, while Leong Che-hung and Cheng Yiu-tong both go up one position to become second and third. Lau Kong-wah re-enters the list to occupy the fourth position, while Lau Wong-fat remains at the fifth. It should be noted, however, that our list of "top five" only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the "Opinion Daily" of our POP Site."

Future Release (Tentative)

November 15, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials