HKU POP releases the ratings of Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack

A brand new "DC Guessing Game" is now available at "POPCON" (http://popcon.hk). Every day, people can make guesses on the final result of the DC election down to constituency level, in order to earn credits and win prizes including iPod Touch and iPod Nano. Guessing figures will be released real time until the last minute of the election. After the election, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will analyze the development and accuracies of these guesstimates, and compared them with opinion polling results. "DC Guessing Game" is jointly developed by POP and Internet creative house Swarm.

POP conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of Legislative Councillors in early to mid October, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest surveys show that compared to three months ago, the popularity of all "top 10" best known Legislative Councillors has basically dropped. In terms of familiarity, Tam Yiu-chung who occupied the eighth position last time has dropped out of the list, replaced by James To. In terms of absolute ratings, Councillors who remain on the list over the last two surveys and who register significant drops include Audrey Eu, Alan Leong and Albert Ho, down by 7.6, 5.7 and 4.8 marks respectively. The plunge in Eu and Leong's popularity is obviously related to the controversy over the right of abode for foreign domestic helpers. In terms of relative rankings, Regina Ip re-takes the top position after April last year, while James To re-enters the top 10 list to rank second. Jasper Tsang goes up 1 position to rank third, Audrey Eu drops 3 places to rank fourth, while Alan Leong and Albert Ho go down 4 and 2 places respectively to rank sixth and eighth. The relative rankings of all others remaining on the list have not changed. It should be noted however that our list of "top 10" only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the "top 10" list by design. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.6 and +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the rating survey is 65%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,000 successful interviews, not 1,000 x 65.1% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,018 successful interviews, not 1,018 x 64.9% response rate.
[3] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the rating figures.
[4] When quoting the rating figures of this survey, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of the top ten Legislative Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2011 mid-year. Herewith the contact information:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings [6]
4-7/10/2011 (First stage naming survey)	1,000	65.1%	+/-3%
8-11/10/2011(Second stage rating survey)	1,018	64.9%	+/-2.4

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early October. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. As a result, Leung Kwok-hung, Wong Yuk-man, Albert Ho, Audrey Eu and Alan Leong were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in mid October, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:

Date of survey	14-21/10/10	20-31/1/11	22/4-2/5/11	11-20/7/11	8-11/10/2011	Latest Change
Sample base	1,013	1,017	1,072	504-643	513-589	--
Overall response rate	65.4%	67.1%	65.9%	66.4%	64.9%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error[7]	--
Regina Ip	59.9 {2}	57.9 {3}[9]	55.4 {2}[9]	58.7 {3}[9]	59.3{1}+/-1.6	+0.6
James To	--	--	51.7 [8]	--	55.4[10]{2}+/-1.9	--
Jasper Tsang	55.3 {6}[9]	52.6 {7}[9]	51.6 {4}	55.5 {4}[9]	55.4[10]{3}+/-1.9	-0.1
Audrey Eu	62.2 {1}[9]	60.5 {2}	56.4 {1}[9]	61.8 {1}[9]	54.2{4}+/-2.3	-7.6[9]
Emily Lau	53.0 {8}	55.5 {6}[9]	49.5 {6}[9]	55.4 {5}[9]	53.7{5}+/-1.9	-1.7
Alan Leong	59.3 {4}[9]	60.8 {1}	54.8 {3}[9]	59.2 {2}[9]	53.5{6}+/-2.3	-5.7[9]
Lee Cheuk-yan	--	55.7 {5}	47.4 {7}[9]	52.7 {7}[9]	51.5{7}+/-2.0	-1.2
Albert Ho	56.7 {5}[9]	56.7 {4}	51.5 {5}[9]	55.2 {6}[9]	50.4{8}+/-2.1	-4.8[9]
Wong Yuk-man	33.8 {9}[9]	33.6 {10}	34.4 {9}	36.2 {9}	34.6{9}+/-2.4	-1.6
Leung Kwok-hung	31.9 {10}[9]	33.8 {9}	32.9 {10}	35.0 {10	33.4{10}+/-2.4	-1.6
Albert Chan	39.9[8] [9]	40.1[8]	39.8 {8}	37.9[8]	38.2[8]+/-2.4	+0.3
Tam Yiu-chung	54.4 {7}	51.9 {8}[9]	48.0[8] [9]	52.2 {8}[9]	50.8[8]+/-2.0	-1.4
Lee Wing-tat	--	--	--	54.7[8]	--	--
Tanya Chan	57.2[8]	58.3[8]	--	--	--	--
Andrew Cheng	59.5 {3}[9]	--	--	--	--	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. Starting from 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, with variable sub-sample size for each question. In latest survey, the sub-sample size of the questions varies between 513 and 589, and its effect has already been reflected in the sampling errors.
[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[10] In two decimal places, the rating of James To is 55.39 and that of Jasper Tsang is 55.36.

The latest survey showed that Regina Ip was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 59.3 marks. James To, Jasper Tsang and Audrey Eu ranked the 2nd to 4th with 55.4, 55.4 and 54.2 marks correspondingly. The 5th to 8th ranks went to Emily Lau, Alan Leong, Lee Cheuk-yan and Albert Ho who attained 53.7, 53.5, 51.5 and 50.4 marks respectively. Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung ranked the 9th to 10th, attaining 34.6 and 33.4 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 55.6 marks, while that for the top 10 was 50.1 marks. For this latest survey, Albert Chan and Tam Yiu-chung obtained support ratings of 38.2 and 50.8 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	20-31/1/11	22/4-2/5/11	11-20/7/11	8-11/10/11	No. of times on top 10	Average rating[11]	Overall ranking[12]
Audrey Eu	60.5	56.4	61.8	54.2	4	58.2	1
Regina Ip	57.9	55.4	58.7	59.3	4	57.8	2
Alan Leong	60.8	54.8	59.2	53.5	4	57.1	3
Jasper Tsang	52.6	51.6	55.5	55.4	4	53.8	4
Emily Lau	55.5	49.5	55.4	53.7	4	53.5	5
Albert Ho	56.7	51.5	55.2	50.4	4	53.4	6
Lee Cheuk-yan	55.7	47.4	52.7	51.5	4	51.8	7
Wong Yuk-man	33.6	34.4	36.2	34.6	4	34.7	8
Leung Kwok-hung	33.8	32.9	35.0	33.4	4	33.8	9
Tam Yiu-chung	51.9	-	52.2	-	2	52.0	10
James To	-	-	-	55.4	1	55.4	11
Albert Chan	-	39.8	-	-	1	39.8	12

[11] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
[12] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that 9 Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Audrey Eu in the top rank achieving an average rating of 58.2 marks, Regina Ip, Alan Leong, Jasper Tsang, Emily Lau and Albert Ho who ranked the 2nd to 6th and attained 57.8, 57.1, 53.8, 53.5 and 53.4 marks correspondingly. Lee Cheuk-yan, Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung ranked the 7th to 9th, with a respective of 51.8, 34.7 and 33.8 marks. Tam Yiu-chung has been on the list for two times, attaining 52.0 marks on average, and ranked the 10th. James To and Albert Chan have been on the list for one time and ranked the 11th to 12th, attaining 55.4 and 39.8 marks correspondingly.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 11 to 20 July, 2011 while this survey was conducted from 8 to 11 October, 2011. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

30/9/11	The Government will appeal against the court ruling on case about the right of abode of foreign domestic helpers.
27/9/11	The Government won in the judicial review of the environmental impact assessment report on the Hong Kong -Zhuhai-Macau bridge project.
19/9/11	Legislative Council held a special meeting to discuss ATV false positive events
1/9/11	Demonstrators disrupted a public forum on filling Legislative Council vacancies.
18/8/11	The end of Vice Premier Li Keqiang's three days visit to Hong Kong.
27/7/11	Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office director Wang Guangya commented on the governing ability of Hong Kong civil servant.
15/7/11	Donald Tsang speaking at his Legislative Council question-and-answer session.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, the popularity of all "top 10" best known Legislative Councillors has basically dropped. In terms of familiarity, Tam Yiu-chung who occupied the eighth position last time has dropped out of the list, replaced by James To. In terms of absolute ratings, Councillors who remain on the list over the last two surveys and who register significant drops include Audrey Eu, Alan Leong and Albert Ho, down by 7.6, 5.7 and 4.8 marks respectively. The plunge in Eu and Leong's popularity is obviously related to the controversy over the right of abode for foreign domestic helpers. In terms of relative rankings, Regina Ip re-takes the top position after April last year, while James To re-enters the top 10 list to rank second. Jasper Tsang goes up 1 position to rank third, Audrey Eu drops 3 places to rank fourth, while Alan Leong and Albert Ho go down 4 and 2 places respectively to rank sixth and eighth. The relative rankings of all others remaining on the list have not changed. It should be noted however that our list of "top 10" only includes Legco members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the "top 10" list by design. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for the ups and downs of these popularity ratings using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page."

• November 3, 2011 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSARG; District Council pre-election survey
• November 8, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Executive Councilors