HKU POP releases the results of Policy Address follow-up surveyBack
| Press Release on October 18, 2011 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Background | Latest Figures | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract
The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 520 Hong Kong people between 13 and 14 October by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that people's satisfaction with CE Donald Tsang's seventh Policy Address slightly drops to 43% from 47% registered in our instant survey, while dissatisfaction rate increases from 18% to 25%. This is the usual pattern, but this year's drop in satisfaction rate is fairly moderate while the increase in dissatisfaction rate is on the high side. In terms of satisfaction rate registered in follow-up surveys, people's appraisal of this year's Policy Address ranks second among Tsang's seven Addresses. In terms of rating, our follow-up survey records an average score of 56.1, a drop of 3.0 marks compared to our instant poll, which appears fairly normal. All in all, after some initial discussions, people's appraisal of this year's Policy Address has dropped but still remains positive. POP will soon conduct another round of follow-up survey to map people's further reaction. Regarding the theme of the Address, 43% of respondents agree that "From strength to strength" meets the need of society, which is a positive appraisal but the figure is lowest across Tsang's seven Policy Addresses. In terms of key policy areas, 83% support the resumption of HOS, but 56% consider the effect of the housing and land supply policies on maintaining property price to be small. Moreover, 56% and 76% respectively consider the effect of Tsang's measures on easing the burden of the grassroots, and narrowing the wealth gap to be small, 54% oppose to Tsang's observation that "our core values…have remained intact [after reunification]". Finally, on our tracking question of people's satisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction, net satisfaction now stands at negative 3 percentage points, which is poorer than this time last year. POP will release another round of Policy Address survey findings in one week's time. Whether public opinion would change after many rounds of discussion remains to be seen. The sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.9. The response rate of the survey is 65%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of this survey is 520 successful interviews, not 520 x 65.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". [4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. [5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Background
Since 1992, POP has been conducting Policy Address instant surveys every year. In 1998, we expanded our instant surveys to cover the Budget Talks. In general, such instant polls which measure people's instant reactions would be repeated weeks later by a follow-up survey which measure people's more matured reactions. We believe this is the correct way to study public opinion. In 2008, we further split our instant survey into two. In our first survey, we measure people's overall appraisal of the Policy Address, their rating of the Policy Address, their change in confidence towards Hong Kong's future, and CE's popularity. One to two days later, we would conduct our first follow-up survey to study people's reactions towards different government proposals, and any change in their satisfaction of the Policy Address. The findings of this year's instant survey were already released on October 13. Today, we release the results of our first follow-up survey. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures
The findings of the Policy Address follow-up survey released by POP today have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2011. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:
[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
Results of the follow-up survey of Policy Address, together with the instant poll, for 2010 and 2011 are tabulated below:
[7] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected. [8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale, the mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of importance level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. [9] Excluding respondents who did not answer this question because they had not heard of / did not know the details of the Policy Address. The sub-sample size was 747. [10] Excluding respondents who did not answer this question because they had not heard of / did not know the details of the Policy Address. The sub-sample size was 816. [11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Our latest survey revealed that 43% of the respondents were satisfied with the Policy Address and 25% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 3.2, meaning close to "half-half" in general. The average rating registered for the Policy Address was 56.1 marks. With respect to people's specific reactions towards the contents of this year's Policy Address, relevant findings are summarized below:
[12] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Findings on people's opinion whether the theme of Policy Address concurred with the current needs of the society from 1997 up to this year are summarized as follows:
[13] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. [14] The question wordings were "The theme of this year's Policy Address is "XXXX". Do you think this theme concurs with the current needs of the society?" [15] Excluding those respondents who refused to answer this question. Since 2006, this series of question only use sub-sample. [16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. [17] This question was not covered in the instant Policy Address poll in 1997 and 1998. Results showed that 43% thought the theme of the Policy Address "From Strength to Strength" concurred with the current needs of the society while 36% did not think so. Besides, 83% supported the resumption of HOS while 11% opposed. Regarding the effect of the housing and land supply policies on stabilizing the property market, 19% said the effect would be big while 56% said it would be small. As for the effect of the measures suggested by Donald Tsang to ease the burden of the grassroots, 21% said the effect would be big while 56% said it would be small. On the effect of the measures suggested by Donald Tsang to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, 8% said the effect would be big while 76% said it would be small. Finally, 26% supported Donald Tsang's observation that "there have been worries that our core values would be lost after reunification. In fact, these core values have remained intact", 54% opposed. Respondents' appraisal of Donald Tsang's policy direction is summarized as follows:
[18] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [19] Collapsed from a 5-point scale, the mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of importance level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. [20] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. As for people's satisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction, 33% of the respondents showed satisfaction while 36% were not satisfied. The mean score is 2.9, meaning close to "half-half" in general. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.
According to our Policy Address instant survey, among respondents who had some knowledge of Donald Tsang's seventh Policy Address, 47% said they were satisfied. However, in our follow-up survey, the figure drops to 43%, while dissatisfaction rate increases from 18% to 25%. This is the usual pattern, but this year's drop in satisfaction rate is fairly moderate while the increase in dissatisfaction rate is on the high side. In terms of satisfaction rate registered in follow-up surveys, people's appraisal of this year's Policy Address ranks second among Tsang's seven Addresses. In terms of rating, our follow-up survey records an average score of 56.1, a drop of 3.0 marks compared to our instant poll, which appears fairly normal. All in all, after some initial discussions, people's appraisal of this year's Policy Address has dropped but still remains positive. POP will soon conduct another round of follow-up survey to map people's further reaction. Regarding the theme of the Address, 43% of respondents agree that "From strength to strength" meets the need of society, which is a positive appraisal but the figure is lowest across Tsang's seven Policy Addresses. In terms of key policy areas, 83% support the resumption of HOS, but 56% consider the effect of the housing and land supply policies on maintaining property price to be small. Moreover, 56% and 76% respectively consider the effect of Tsang's measures on easing the burden of the grassroots, and narrowing the wealth gap to be small, 54% oppose to Tsang's observation that "our core values…have remained intact [after reunification]". Finally, on our tracking question of people's satisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction, net satisfaction now stands at negative 3 percentage points, which is poorer than this time last year. POP will release another round of Policy Address survey findings in one week's time. Whether public opinion would change after many rounds of discussion remains to be seen. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Future Release (Tentative)
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