HKU POP SITE releases survey on the popularity of cross-strait political figuresBack

As in previous years, Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will conduct an instant survey after the Chief Executive delivers his policy address this Wednesday (October 12, 2011). Results will be announced the following day (October 13), after which POP will conduct follow-up surveys which would be released in due course. If individual media would like to obtain the results of our instant survey through sponsorship on the day that the Policy Address is announced, please contact us on or before this Tuesday (October 11, 2011), so that we can make special arrangements.

POP conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan in September, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to 6 months ago, the list of top 10 cross-strait political figures has slightly changed. On the awareness level, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang have replaced Li Peng and Lu Hsiu-lien and enter the list to rank 4th and 7th respectively. The split across the strait now becomes 60:40. In terms of support rating, the popularity ratings of 4 figures have increased while the other 6 have dropped. Among them, Chen Shui-bian registers a significant increase, while those with significant drops include Lee Teng-hui, Lien Chan and Jiang Zemin. As for the relative rankings, Zhu Rongji and Wen Jiabao have swapped positions to rank 1st and 2nd, while Hu Jintao continues to rank 3rd. Xi Jinping re-enters the list to rank 4th, Ma Ying-jeou and Jiang Zemin each drops one position to rank 5th and 6th, Li Keqiang enters the list for the first time to rank 7th, Lien Chan and Lee Teng-hui each drops two positions to occupy the 8th and 9th places, while Chen Shui-bian continues to rank 10th. It should be noted that our list of 'top 10 cross-strait political figures' only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known. The sampling errors of rating figures registered fall between +/-1.4 and +/-2.1. The response rate of the rating survey is 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size the first stage naming survey is 1,038 successful interviews, not 1,038 x 66.2%. The sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,023successful interviews, not 1,023 x 65.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3]  "95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1 at 95% confidence level".
[4]  When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures, one decimal place can be used when quoting these rating figures.
[5]  The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest survey on popularity of cross-strait political figures. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings[6]
5-10/9/2011 (First stage naming survey)	1,038	66.2%	+/-3%
14-21/9/2011 (Second stage rating survey)	1,023	65.7%	+/-2.1

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early September. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Ma Ying-jeou, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Chen Shui-bian and Li Keqiang were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in mid-September, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 political figures. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997. Recent ratings of the top political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	9-15/3/2010	18-24/9/2010	14-23/3/2011	14-21/9/2011		Latest change
Sample base	1,004	1,010	543-661	598-672		--
Overall response rate	66.4%	66.2%	66.7%	65.7%		--
Latest finding / Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error [7]	Recognition rate	--
Zhu Rongji	76.0{2}	71.8{2}[9]	71.6{2}	72.2+/-1.5 {1}	87.4%	+0.6
Wen Jiabao	78.6{1}[9]	76.9{1}[9]	72.7{1}[9]	71.7+/-1.4 {2}	97.0%	-1.0
Hu Jintao	75.9{3}	70.9{3}[9]	69.2{3}[9]	68.6+/-1.4 {3}	94.1%	-0.6
Xi Jinping	65.5 [8][9]	61.8{4}[9]	60.9[8]	61.8+/-1.7 {4}	73.8%	+0.9
Ma Ying-jeou	61.5{4}	58.9{5}[9]	60.4{4}[9]	60.0+/-1.4 {5}	84.3%	-0.4
Jiang Zemin	60.6{5}	56.0{6}[9]	58.3{5}[9]	56.0+/-1.9 {6}	88.0%	-2.3[9]
Li Keqiang	52.5[8]	55.4[8] [9]	54.1[8]	54.3+/-1.7 {7}	72.8%	+0.2
Lien Chan	51.0{6}[9]	54.3{7}[9]	54.4{6}	51.9+/-1.7 {8}	73.9%	-2.5[9]
Lee Teng-hui	41.6{7}[9]	35.7{9}[9]	41.2{7}[9]	38.4+/-2.1 {9}	79.9%	-2.8[9]
Chen Shui-bian	16.7{10}[9]	18.2{10}[9]	17.2{10}	18.9+/-1.6 {10}	91.0%	+1.7[9]
James Soong	--	--	--	50.8+/-1.8 [8]	64.1%	--
Tsai Ing-wen	--	--	--	44.7+/-2.0 [8]	54.7%	--
Huang Huahua	--	56.5[8]	--	--	--	--
Li Peng	41.4{8}[9]	42.7{8}	39.9{8}[9]	--	--	--
Lu Hsiu-lien	34.6{9}[8]	--	35.9{9}	--	--	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. {} Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[8]  Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not listed.
[9]  Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Survey conducted in mid-September revealed that, among the ten most well-known political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, in terms of popularity rating, Zhu Rongji topped the list, attaining 72.2 marks. The 2nd and 3rd ranks went to Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao with respective scores of 71.7 and 68.6 marks. Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin, Li Keqiang and Lien Chan occupied the 4th to 8th ranks with 61.8, 60.0, 56.0, 54.3 and 51.9 marks correspondingly. The 9th and 10th ranks fell to Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian with respective scores of 38.4 and 18.9 marks. For this latest survey, James Soong and Tsai Ing-wen obtained support ratings of 50.8 and 44.7 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political figures was 66.9 marks, while that for the top 10 was 55.4 marks. As for the overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 18 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	9-15/3/2010	18-24/9/2010	14-23/3/2011	14-21/9/2011	No. of times on top 10	Average rating[10]	Overall ranking[11]
Wen Jiabao	78.6	76.9	72.7	71.7	4	75.0	1
Zhu Rongji	76.0	71.8	71.6	72.2	4	72.9	2
Hu Jintao	75.9	70.9	69.2	68.6	4	71.2	3
Ma Ying-jeou	61.5	58.9	60.4	60.0	4	60.2	4
Jiang Zemin	60.6	56.0	58.3	56.0	4	57.7	5
Lien Chan	51.0	54.3	54.4	51.9	4	52.9	6
Lee Teng-hui	41.6	35.7	41.2	38.4	4	39.2	7
Chen Shui-bian	16.7	18.2	17.2	18.9	4	17.7	8
Li Peng	41.4	42.7	39.9	--	3	41.3	9
Xi Jinping	--	61.8	--	61.8	2	61.8	10
Lu Hsiu-lien	34.6	--	35.9	--	2	35.2	11
Li Keqiang	--	--	--	54.3	1	54.3	12

[10] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political figures over the past 18 months.
[11] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 18 months showed that eight political figures have been on the list for four times. They are Wen Jiabao in the top rank, achieving an average rating of 75.0 marks, Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao ranked 2nd to 3rd and attained 72.9 and 71.2 marks correspondingly, Ma Ying-jeou, Jiang Zemin, Lien Chan, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian who ranked 4th to 8th with respective scores of 60.2, 57.7, 52.9, 39.2 and 17.7 marks. Li Peng has been on the list for three times with 41.3 marks and ranked the 9th. Xi Jinping and Lu Hsiu-lien have been on the list twice with respective scores of 61.8 and 35.2 marks and ranked at the 10th and 11th place respectively. Li Keqiang has been on the list once with 54.3 marks at the 12th place.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from March 14 to 23, 2011 while the latest survey was conducted from September 14 to 21, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

19/9/11	Legislative Council held a special meeting to discuss ATV false positive events
23/8/11	14th Plenary of Hong Kong/Guangdong Co-operation Joint Conference was held.
17/8/11	Visiting Vice Premier Li Keqiang declared to strengthen the position of Hong Kong as a hub of yuan transactions.
16/8/11	Vice-Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang arrived in Hong Kong for a three-day official visit.
27/7/11	Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office director Wang Guangya commented on the governing ability of Hong Kong civil servant.
11/7/11	Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office director Wang Guangya talked about the conditions for the next Chief Executive of Hong Kong.
7/7/11	Xinhua News Agency declared the death of former president Jiang Zemin as rumour.
6/7/11	Former president Jiang Zemin is reported to be critically ill.
13/6/11	Wang Guangya, director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office of the State Council visits Hong Kong.
4/6/11	People gather at the Victoria Park in remembrance of the 22nd anniversary of June 4th incident.
21/5/11	Premier Wen Jiabao visits Japen's quake-hit area.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to 6 months ago, the list of top 10 cross-strait political figures has slightly changed. On the awareness level, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang have replaced Li Peng and Lu Hsiu-lien and enter the list to rank 4th and 7th respectively. The split across the strait now becomes 60:40. In terms of support rating, the popularity ratings of 4 figures have increased while the other 6 have dropped. Among them, Chen Shui-bian registers a significant increase, while those with significant drops include Lee Teng-hui, Lien Chan and Jiang Zemin. As for the relative rankings, Zhu Rongji and Wen Jiabao have swapped positions to rank 1st and 2nd, while Hu Jintao continues to rank 3rd. Xi Jinping re-enters the list to rank 4th, Ma Ying-jeou and Jiang Zemin each drops one position to rank 5th and 6th, Li Keqiang enters the list for the first time to rank 7th, Lien Chan and Lee Teng-hui each drops two positions to occupy the 8th and 9th places, while Chen Shui-bian continues to rank 10th. It should be noted that our list of 'top 10 cross-strait political figures' only includes those best known to the Hong Kong public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of different figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

• October 11, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2 pm: People's expectation of CE's Policy Address
• October 13, 2011 (Thursday) 1pm to 2 pm: Policy Address Instant Poll