HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack
| Press Release on October 7, 2011 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract
The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,025 Hong Kong people between September 26 and October 4 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey was conducted during the period when Henry Tang resigned from the post of Chief Secretary, followed by Stephen Lam changing his post from Secretary of Constitutional and Mainland Affairs to become the Chief Secretary. The survey finds that the disapproval rate of Donald Tsang as Chief Executive has increased to 69%, which is the historical high since he became CE, and also drops him into the "disastrous" category. Donald Tsang's net popularity now stands at negative 45 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, newly appointed CS Stephen Lam has a support rating of 38.5 marks, which is the worst rating ever scored by any CS. His approval rate is 20%, disapproval rate 36%, giving a net popularity of negative 16 percentage points. The support rating of former CS Henry Tang before he left office was 48.6 marks, approval rate 30%, disapproval rate 22%, net popularity positive 8 percentage points. As for other Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, FS John Tsang's popularity figures increased again, with a support rating of 50.2 marks, approval rate 39%, disapproval rate 23%, and his net popularity goes up by 10 percentage points to positive 16 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 59.5 marks, approval rate 61%, disapproval rate 6%, and his net popularity stands at positive 55 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, excluding the post of Secretary of Constitutional and Mainland Affairs which has personnel changes, compared to one month ago, the approval rate of only one Director has gone down, all other 10 have gone up. Among them, 5 Directors have registered significant changes in approval rates beyond sampling error. They include Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, Secretary for the Civil Services Dennis Yue and Secretary for Commercial and Economic Development Gregory So, up by 8, 6, 5, 5 and 4 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Michael Suen registers negative popularity, at negative 15 percentage points. According to POP's standard and counting only incumbents, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee, York Chow and Matthew Cheung now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, John Tsang, Tsang Tak-sing, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", while that of Denise Yue, Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang "disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of this survey is 1,025 successful interviews, not 1,025 x 66.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". [4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. [5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.
Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [12] Former Chief Secretary Henry Tang announced his resignation on September 28, 2011, all survey questions on Henry Tang thus stopped on September 28, with a sub-sample of 305, sampling error of his rating not more than +/-2.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level. Besides, the Government announced the appointment of former Secretary of Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam as the Chief Secretary on September 30, POP thus started to conduct this survey on Stephen Lam as the Chief Secretary, and achieved a sub-sample of 527. [13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [15] Former Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam was appointed as the Chief Secretary on September 30, all survey questions on Stephen Lam as the Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs was conducted till September 28, with a sub-sample of 257, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level. Besides, the government announced the appointment of Raymond Tam as the new Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs on the same day. [16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 48.4 marks, and 24% supported him as the Chief Executive, his net approval rate is negative 45%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Stephen Lam, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 38.5, 50.2 and 59.5 marks, and 20%, 39% and 61% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are negative 16%, positive 16% and positive 55% respectively. Former CS Henry Tang scored 48.6 marks just before he resigned, 30% would vote for his reappointment, his net approval rate is positive 8%. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, attaining 61%. Her net approval rate is positive 51%. The 2nd to 4th places belonged to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, Secretary for Food and Health York Chow and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, with approval rates 57%, 53% and 51% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 44%, 34% and 39% respectively. Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Raymond Tam, Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So ranked 5th to 12th, as they gained 49%、45%、38%、36%、32%、31%、28% and 25% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 34%, positive 28%, positive 30%, positive 25%, positive 3%, positive 24%, negative 15% and positive 10%. In other words, only Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee, York Chow and Matthew Cheung scored approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. Besides, former Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam obtained an approval rate of 31% just before he became the new CS, with a net approval rate of 0%. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from August 29 to September 6, 2011 while this survey was conducted from September 26 to October 4, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.
This survey was conducted during the period when Henry Tang resigned from the post of Chief Secretary, followed by Stephen Lam changing his post from Secretary of Constitutional and Mainland Affairs to become the Chief Secretary. The survey finds that the disapproval rate of Donald Tsang as Chief Executive has increased to 69%, which is the historical high since he became CE, and also drops him into the "disastrous" category. Donald Tsang's net popularity now stands at negative 45 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, newly appointed CS Stephen Lam has a support rating of 38.5 marks, which is the worst rating ever scored by any CS. His approval rate is 20%, disapproval rate 36%, giving a net popularity of negative 16 percentage points. The support rating of former CS Henry Tang before he left office was 48.6 marks, approval rate 30%, disapproval rate 22%, net popularity positive 8 percentage points. As for other Secretaries of Departments, compared to a month ago, FS John Tsang's popularity figures increased again, with a support rating of 50.2 marks, approval rate 39%, disapproval rate 23%, and his net popularity goes up by 10 percentage points to positive 16 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 59.5 marks, approval rate 61%, disapproval rate 6%, and his net popularity stands at positive 55 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, excluding the post of Secretary of Constitutional and Mainland Affairs which has personnel changes, compared to one month ago, the approval rate of only one Director has gone down, all other 10 have gone up. Among them, 5 Directors have registered significant changes in approval rates beyond sampling error. They include Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, Secretary for the Civil Services Dennis Yue and Secretary for Commercial and Economic Development Gregory So, up by 8, 6, 5, 5 and 4 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Michael Suen registers negative popularity, at negative 15 percentage points. According to POP's standard and counting only incumbents, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee, York Chow and Matthew Cheung now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, John Tsang, Tsang Tak-sing, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", while that of Denise Yue, Ceajer Chan, Raymond Tam and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang "disastrous". The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
[17] In one decimal place, the approval rate of SJ Wong Yan-lung is 61.4% while the approval rate of Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor is 61.0%.
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Future Releases (Tentative)
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| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
