HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on September 27, 2011

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong people between 13 and 20 September 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang has dropped again. CE's latest support rating is 47.3 marks, with an approval rate of 24% and a disapproval rate of 67% which is record high since he became CE. His net popularity now stands at negative 43 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the post-80s are more critical of Tsang's appointment as CE with a high disapproval rate of 77%. As for the SAR Government, the popularity figures are quite stable compared to one month ago. Its net popularity now stands at negative 24 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to three months ago, the satisfaction rates of all items have fluctuated within sampling errors. In terms of net satisfaction rate, only its relation with the Central Government continues to register a positive value at positive 11 percentage points. Other four items all registered negative values: maintaining economic prosperity at negative 8 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 16 percentage points, developing democracy at negative 28 percentage points, and improving people's livelihood at negative 39 percentage points and also with a dissatisfaction rate close to 60%, rendering it an obvious area for immediate improvement. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,001 successful interviews, not 1,001 x 65.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2011.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
13-20/9/2011	1,001	65.5%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	21-25/7/11	1-9/8/11	16-23/8/11	29/8-6/9/11	13-20/9/11	Latest Change
Sample base	1,004	1,001	1,009	1,012	1,001	--
Overall response rate	67.1%	63.4%	66.0%	64.6%	65.5%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding^[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	46.0	48.3^[9]	47.9	49.0	47.3+/-1.4	-1.7^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	23%	24%	23%	24%	24+/-3%	--
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	65%	60%^[9]	64%^[9]	65%	67+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate	-42%	-36%	-41%	-41%	-43%	-2%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	17%	--	22%^[9]	--	22+/-3%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	53%	--	47%^[9]	--	46+/-4%	-1%
Net satisfaction rate	-36%	--	-25%	--	-24%	+1%
Mean value^[8]	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=499)	--	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=499)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=603)	+0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 613.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 47.3 marks, and 24% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 22% were satisfied, whereas 46% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.6, meaning in between "half-half" and "quite dissatisfied".

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	18-24/9/10	17-22/12/10	14-23/3/11	23-29/6/11	13-20/9/11	Latest Change^[13]
Sample base^[13]	1,010	1,017	549-617	541-626	514-635	--
Overall response rate	66.2%	66.4%	63.1%	68.7%	65.5%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding]	Finding & error^[10]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[11]	57%^[12]	52%^[12]	47%^[12]	39%^[12]	39+/-4%	--
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	13%^[12]	19%^[12]	19%	25%^[12]	28+/-4%	+3%
Net satisfaction rate	+44%	+33%	+28%	+14%	+11%	-3%
Mean value^[11]	3.5+/-0.1^[12] (Base=957)	3.4+/-0.1 (Base=935)	3.3+/-0.1 (Base=563)	3.1+/-0.1^[12] (Base=524)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=580)	--
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[11]	37%	36%	32%	28%	31+/-4%	+3%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	29%^[12]	33%^[12]	35%	44%^[12]	39+/-4%	-5%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	+8%	+3%	-3%	-16%	-8%	+8%
Mean value^[11]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=995)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=528)	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (Base=535)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base =627)	+0.1
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[11]	49%^[12]	43%^[12]	40%	31%^[12]	27+/-4%	-4%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	24%^[12]	27%	29%	39%^[12]	43+/-4%	+4%
Net satisfaction rate	+25%	+16%	+11%	-8%	-16%	-8%
Mean value^[11]	3.2+/-0.1^[12] (Base=992)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=982)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=586)	2.8+/-0.1^[12] (Base=538)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base =494)	-0.1
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[11]	34%	30%^[12]	27%	25%	22+/-3%	-3%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	33%^[12]	40%^[12]	43%	47%	50+/-4%	+3%
Net satisfaction rate	+1%	-10%	-16%	-22%	-28%	-6%
Mean value^[11]	2.9+/-0.1^[12] (Base=979)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=954)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=575)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=596)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base =568)	-0.1
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[11]	23%	21%	18%	16%	18+/-3%	+2%
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	44%^[12]	54%^[12]	53%	57%	57+/-4%	--
Net satisfaction rate	-21%	-33%	-35%	-41%	-39%	+2%
Mean value^[11]	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=996)	2.5+/-0.1^[12] (Base=1,002)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=585)	2.3+/-0.1^[12] (Base=547)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base =601)	+0.1

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[13] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 39%. The government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 31%. Finally, a respective of 27%, 22% and 18% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in protecting human rights and freedom, developing democracy as well as improving people's livelihood. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.1, 2.8, 2.7, 2.5 and 2.4 respectively, meaning close to "half-half" or "quite dissatisfied" in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of vote of confidence in CE Donald Tasng by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 13-20/9/2011		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Vote of confidence/no confidence in CE Donald Tsang^[14]	Confidence	20+/-6% (38)	20+/-4% (79)	30+/-4% (122)	24+/-3% (239)
	No confidence	77+/-6% (147)	69+/-5% (269)	60+/-5% (247)	67+/-3% (664)
	Don't know/ Hard to say	3+/-2% (5)	11+/-3% (41)	10+/-3% (43)	9+/-2% (90)
	Total	100% (191)	100% (389)	100% (412)	100% (992)

[14] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 23 to 29 June, 2011 while this survey was conducted from 13 to 20 September, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

9/9/11	Deputy Secretary for Labour & Welfare Roy Tang will become Director of Broadcasting.
1/9/11	Demonstrators disrupted a public forum on filling Legislative Council vacancies.
29/8/11	Commissioner of Police Andy Tsang clarified the security actions made during Vice Premier's stay.
17/8/11	Visiting Vice Premier Li Keqiang declared to strengthen the position of Hong Kong as a hub of yuan transactions.
16/8/11	Vice-Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang arrived in Hong Kong for a three-day official visit.
10/8/11	Computer hackers attacked the website of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited.
27/7/11	Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office director Wang Guangya commented on the governing ability of Hong Kong civil servant.
15/7/11	Donald Tsang speaking at his Legislative Council question-and-answer session.
11/7/11	Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office director Wang Guangya talked about the conditions for the next Chief Executive of Hong Kong.
1/7/11	Many newspapers on the following day report the July 1 march.
28/6/11	The replacement mechanism for filling midterm Legislative Council vacancies is revised.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang has dropped again. CE's latest support rating is 47.3 marks, with an approval rate of 24% and a disapproval rate of 67% which is record high since he became CE. His net popularity now stands at negative 43 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the post-80s are more critical of Tsang's appointment as CE with a high disapproval rate of 77%. As for the SAR Government, the popularity figures are quite stable compared to one month ago. Its net popularity now stands at negative 24 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to three months ago, the satisfaction rates of all items have fluctuated within sampling errors. In terms of net satisfaction rate, only its relation with the Central Government continues to register a positive value at positive 11 percentage points. Other four items all registered negative values: maintaining economic prosperity at negative 8 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 16 percentage points, developing democracy at negative 28 percentage points, and improving people's livelihood at negative 39 percentage points and also with a dissatisfaction rate close to 60%, rendering it an obvious area for immediate improvement. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

October 4, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Legislative Councillors, Hong Kong Police Force and PLA Hong Kong Garrison