HKU POP releases the latest trust and confidence indicators, and survey on Taiwan issuesBack

Press Release on September 15, 2011

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government/People's Trust in the Taiwan Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future/People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Independence of Taiwan / Confidence in Cross-strait Reunification) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Applicability of "One Country, Two Systems" to Taiwan) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Taiwan's Rejoining the United Nations / Tibet Issues) |

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,038 Hong Kong people between 5 and 10 September, 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central governments have both rebounded from their lows three months ago, back to the level registered at the end of last year. People's net trust in our local government now stands at positive 16 percentage points, while that of the Central government stands at positive 2 percentage points. People's trust in the Taiwan government remains low, with a net trust of negative 18 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan has not changed much, at over 60%. As for the confidence indicators, compared to three months ago, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong and China have not changed much, with net confidence standing at positive 25 and positive 53 percentage points respectively. It is noteworthy, however, that their confidence in China's future has gradually dropped to the level registered in early 1998. People's confidence in "one country, two systems" has remained stable, with a net confidence of positive 25 percentage points, whereas those who consider "one country, two systems" applicable to Taiwan remains at around 45%. Besides, people's confidence in reunification across the strait has remained stable over the past three months, with a net confidence of positive 1 percentage point, while those supporting Taiwan's rejoining the UN accounted for about 35%. Further analysis shows that those of age 18-29 distrust the Central government much more than the older respondents. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rates of the surveys are 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,038 successful interviews, not 1,038 x 66.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems", as well as various Taiwan issues. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2011. Herewith the contact information for the latest surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
5-10/9/2011	1,038	66.2%	+/-4%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, people's confidence in the future and the views towards various Taiwan issues are summarized below:

Date of survey^[7]	9/2010^[7]	12/2010^[7]	3/2011^[7]	6/2011	9/2011	Latest Change
Total sample size^[8]	1,011	1,013	1,003/1,000	1,034	1,038	--
Overall response rate	65.3%	67.4%/65.0%	65.4%/64.2%	66.5%	66.2%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[9]	--
Trust in HKSAR Government^[10]	53%^[11]	44%^[11]	42%	34%	44+/-4%	+10%^[11]
Distrust in HKSAR Government^[10]	16%^[11]	22%^[11]	28%^[11]	28%	28+/-4%	--
Mean value^[10]	3.4+/-0.1^[11] (Base=994)	3.2+/-0.1^[11] (Base=996)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=553)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=503)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=487)	+0.2^[11]
Trust in Beijing Government^[10]	42%^[11]	37%^[11]	44%^[11]	31%	35+/-4%	+4%
Distrust in Beijing Government^[10]	22%^[11]	32%^[11]	24%^[11]	31%	33+/-4%	+2%
Mean value^[10]	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=965)	3.0+/-0.1^[11] (Base=974)	3.2+/-0.1^[11] (Base=515)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=488)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=552)	--
Trust in Taiwan Government^[10]	13%^[11]	14%	19%^[11]	16%	16+/-3%	--
Distrust in Taiwan Government^[10]	35%^[11]	42%^[11]	43%	32%	34+/-4%	+2%
Mean value^[10]	2.6+/-0.1^[11] (Base=763)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=831)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=434)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=419)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=364)	-0.1
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate	71%	75%^[11]	63%^[11]	65%	63+/-4%	-2%
Taiwan independence: Support rate	15%	15%	20%^[11]	19%	20+/-3%	-1%
Confidence in HK's future	69%^[11]	62%^[11]	63%	59%	59+/-4%	--
No-confidence in HK's future	23%^[11]	30%^[11]	32%	31%	34+/-4%	+3%
Confidence in China's future	81%	77%^[11]	83%^[11]	75%	73+/-4%	-2%
No-confidence in China's future	13%	15%	10%^[11]	15%	20+/-3%	+5%^[11]
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	62%^[11]	61%	62%	59%	58+/-4%	-1%
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	29%^[11]	32%	32%	34%	33+/-4%	-1%
Believed "one country, two systems" was applicable to Taiwan	47%	50%	40%^[11]	44%	46+/-4%	+2%
Believed "one country, two systems" was not applicable to Taiwan	38%	38%	42%	40%	37+/-4%	-3%
Confidence in cross-strait reunification	49%^[11]	49%	45%	46%	44+/-4%	-2%
No confidence in cross-strait reunification	38%	42%^[11]	44%	40%	43+/-4%	+3%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate	37%^[11]	42%^[11]	--	39%	36+/-4%	-3%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate	43%	43%	--	37%	41+/-4%	+4%

[7] Surveys on trust and distrust of the HKSAR Government, Beijing Government and Taiwan Government and confidence in HK's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" were conducted in 7-11/9/2010, 13-16/12/2010 and 1-9/3/2011 respectively. And, surveys on Taiwan independence, applicability of "one country, two systems" in Taiwan and confidence in cross-strait reunification were conducted in 7-11/9/2010, 6-10/12/2010 and 8-14/3/2011 respectively.
[8] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 503 to 586, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 44% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 35% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 16% trusted the Taiwan Government. The mean scores of these trust indicators are 3.2, 3.0 and 2.6 respectively, meaning close to "half-half" in general. On the other hand, 59% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 73% had confidence in China's future, while 58% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems". In addition, latest survey revealed that 63% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas 20% showed support. As for the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan, 46% gave a positive view while 37% gave a negative answer. 44% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 43% expressed no confidence. 36% supported the rejoining the United Nations of Taiwan while 41% opposed.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents' trust in Beijing Government by age:

Date of survey: 5-19/9/11		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Percentage of trust/ distrust in Beijing Government^[12]	Trust	26+/-8% (30)	32+/-6% (71)	42+/-6% (103)	35+/-4% (205)
	Half-half	25+/-8% (28)	35+/-6% (77)	20+/-5% (49)	27+/-4% (155)
	Distrust	46+/-9% (52)	30+/-6% (66)	29+/-6% (71)	33+/-4% (189)
	Don't know/ hard to say	3+/-3% (3)	3+/-2% (7)	9+/-4% (21)	5+/-2% (31)
	Total	100% (113)	100% (222)	100% (245)	100% (580)
	Mean value^[12]	2.7+/-0.2 (Base=110)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=215)	3.1+/-0.2 (Base=224)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=549)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from June 13 to 16, 2011 while this survey was conducted from September 5 to 10, 2011. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

1/9/11	Demonstrators disrupted a public forum on filling Legislative Council vacancies.
23/8/11	14th Plenary of Hong Kong/Guangdong Co-operation Joint Conference was held.
17/8/11	Visiting Vice Premier Li Keqiang declared to strengthen the position of Hong Kong as a hub of yuan transactions.
16/8/11	Vice-Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang arrived in Hong Kong for a three-day official visit.
31/7/11	Terrorist attack happened in Xinjiang and caused 14 dead.
27/7/11	Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office director Wang Guangya commented on the governing ability of Hong Kong civil servant.
23/7/11	Two high-speed rail trains collided and derailed at Wenzhou and resulted in deaths and injuries.
15/7/11	Donald Tsang speaking at his Legislative Council question-and-answer session.
7/7/11	Xinhua News Agency declared the death of former president Jiang Zemin as rumour.
1/7/11	Many newspapers on the following day report the July 1 march.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central governments have both rebounded from their lows three months ago, back to the level registered at the end of last year. People's net trust in our local government now stands at positive 16 percentage points, while that of the Central government stands at positive 2 percentage points. People's trust in the Taiwan government remains low, with a net trust of negative 18 percentage points. Compared to three months ago, people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan has not changed much, at over 60%. As for the confidence indicators, compared to three months ago, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong and China have not changed much, with net confidence standing at positive 25 and positive 53 percentage points respectively. It is noteworthy, however, that their confidence in China's future has gradually dropped to the level registered in early 1998. People's confidence in "one country, two systems" has remained stable, with a net confidence of positive 25 percentage points, whereas those who consider "one country, two systems" applicable to Taiwan remains at around 45%. Besides, people's confidence in reunification across the strait has remained stable over the past three months, with a net confidence of positive 1 percentage point, while those supporting Taiwan's rejoining the UN accounted for about 35%. Further analysis shows that those of age 18-29 distrust the Central government much more than the older respondents. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

September 20, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Media performance