HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack
| Press Release on September 12, 2011 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract
The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,012 Hong Kong people between August 29 and September 6 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that compared to the last survey, CE Donald Tsang's popularity figures have basically remain stable, his support rating is 49.0 marks, approval rate 24%, disapproval rate 65%, net popularity negative 41 percentage points. His performance continues to be near "disastrous". As for the three Secretaries of Departments, CS Henry Tang's popularity figures have dropped significantly. His support rating is 46.6 marks, approval rate 30%, disapproval rate 31%, meaning that he registers a negative net popularity again. FS John Tsang's popularity figures, on the other hand, have increased significantly. His support rating is 49.6 marks, approval rate 33%, disapproval rate 27%, and his net popularity goes up from negative 8 percentage points to positive 6 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 58.2 marks, approval rate 58%, disapproval rate 9%, and his net popularity remains unchanged at positive 49 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 8 among the 12 Directors have gone up, 3 have gone down and 1 remained unchanged. Among them, 3 Directors have registered significant changes in approval rates beyond sampling error. They include Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, down by 10 percentage points, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, up by 5 percentage points respectively. Michael Suen, Stephen Lam and Tsang Tak-sing register negative popularity, at negative 18, 7 and 4 percentage points respectively. According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee and York Chow now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, John Tsang, Henry Tang, Stephen Lam, Tsang Tak-sing and Michael Suen can be labeled as "mediocre", while that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang "depressing". No official falls under the category of "disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of this survey is 1,012 successful interviews, not 1,012 x 64.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". [4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. [5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.
Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 49.0 marks, and 24% supported him as the Chief Executive, his net approval rate is negative 41%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 46.6, 49.6 and 58.2 marks, and 30%, 33% and 58% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are negative 1%, positive 6% and positive 49% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, attaining 57%. Her net approval rate is positive 47%. The 2nd and 3rd places belonged to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, with approval rate 52% and 51% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 31% and 28% respectively. Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So ranked 4th to 12th, as they gained 49%, 43%, 38%, 37%, 33%, 30%, 28%, 25% and 21% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 38%, positive 23%, positive 28%, positive 17%, positive 23%, negative 7%, negative 4%, negative 18% and positive 5%. In other words, only Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee and York Chow scored approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from August 1 to 9, 2011 while this survey was conducted from August 29 to September 6, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.
Our latest survey shows that compared to the last survey, CE Donald Tsang's popularity figures have basically remain stable, his support rating is 49.0 marks, approval rate 24%, disapproval rate 65%, net popularity negative 41 percentage points. His performance continues to be near "disastrous". As for the three Secretaries of Departments, CS Henry Tang's popularity figures have dropped significantly. His support rating is 46.6 marks, approval rate 30%, disapproval rate 31%, meaning that he registers a negative net popularity again. FS John Tsang's popularity figures, on the other hand, have increased significantly. His support rating is 49.6 marks, approval rate 33%, disapproval rate 27%, and his net popularity goes up from negative 8 percentage points to positive 6 percentage points. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 58.2 marks, approval rate 58%, disapproval rate 9%, and his net popularity remains unchanged at positive 49 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 8 among the 12 Directors have gone up, 3 have gone down and 1 remained unchanged. Among them, 3 Directors have registered significant changes in approval rates beyond sampling error. They include Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, down by 10 percentage points, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, up by 5 percentage points respectively. Michael Suen, Stephen Lam and Tsang Tak-sing register negative popularity, at negative 18, 7 and 4 percentage points respectively. According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam, Ambrose Lee and York Chow now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, John Tsang, Henry Tang, Stephen Lam, Tsang Tak-sing and Michael Suen can be labeled as "mediocre", while that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang "depressing". No official falls under the category of "disastrous". The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
[16] In one decimal place, the approval rate of CS Henry Tang Ying-yen is 30.2% while the approval rate of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung is 29.6%.
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Future Releases (Tentative)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Releases (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
