HKU POP releases ratings of top 10 political groupsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the rankings of the top 10 political groups in August by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that compared to three months ago, the ratings of 7 out of 10 political groups have gone down. Among them, those with drops beyond sampling error include CP, HKASPDMC and DP, down by 3.1, 2.9 and 2.4 marks respectively. The right of abode issue for foreign domestic helpers, the fading away of the Szeto Wah effect, and the prostitution scandal of DP's former Secretary-General Chan Ka-wai, may have contributed to these drops respectively. Among the "Top 10 Political Groups", only FTU, HKCTU and NWS have more than 50 marks, and all three are labour and community service groups. In terms of relative rankings, FTU and HKCTU go up 2 positions each to rank 1st and 2nd, while NWS goes down 1 position to rank 3rd. HKASPDMC drops 3 places to rank 4th, ADPL and CP swap positions to rank the 5th and 6th, DAB and DP swap positions to rank the 7th and 8th, while LP and LSD continue to take the 9th and 10th positions with the latter scoring all-time record low since its establishment. It should be noted, however, that our "Top 10 Political Groups" only include groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. The maximum sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.6 and +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 66%.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. As a general practice, all the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings[5]
10-18/8/2011 (First stage naming survey)	1,035	67.6%	+/-3%
23-30/8/2011 (Second stage rating survey)	1,020	66.4%	+/-2.4

The research design of our "Top ten political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from August 10 to 18. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party (DP), Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), Civic Party (CP) and League of Social Democrats (LSD) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted from August 23 to 30, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:

Date of survey	17-27/11/10	15-19/2/2011	23-31/5/2011	23-30/8/2011		Latest change
Sample base	1,001	501-586	552-628	522-605		--
Overall response rate	69.7%	65.9%	66.1%	66.4%		--
Finding /Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error[6]	Recognition rate	--
FTU	52.8 {1}[8]	52.5{6}	50.4 {3} [8]	50.8+/-1.8 {1}	86%	+0.4
HKCTU	52.1 {2}	56.2{2}[8]	49. 2{4} [8][9]	50.7+/-2.0 {2}	80%	+1.5
NWS	52.0[7][8]	52.8{5}	51.0 {2}	50.4+/-2.3 {3}	69%	-0.6
HKASPDMC	49.6 {5}	57.5{1}[8]	51.7{1} [8]	48.8+/-2.2 {4}	76%	-2.9[8]
ADPL	49.1 {6}	48.5{7}	48.3{6}	47.2+/-2.0 {5}	71%	-1.1
CP	50.0 {3}	53.3{4}[8][9]	49.2 {5}[8][9]	46.1+/-2.1 {6}	77%	-3.1[8]
DAB	48.3 {7}	44.2{9}[8]	46.7 {8}[8]	45.5+/-2.2 {7}	88%	-1.2
DP	49.9 {4}	53.3{3}[8][9]	47.7{7}[8]	45.3+/-1.9 {8}	89%	-2.4[8]
LP	43.9 {9}	44.6{8}	43.2 {9}	44.7+/-1.6 {9}	82%	+1.5
LSD	36.2 {10}[8]	37.3{10}	32.7{10}[8]	32.6+/-2.2 {10}	83%	-0.1
New People's Party	--	45.8[7]	43.1[8]	46.4+/-2.3[7]	55%	+3.3[8]
People Power	--	--	36.3	34.9+/-2.4[7]	68%	-1.4
Frontier	47.5 {8}[8]	46.9[7]	--	--	--	--

Findings obtained in second half of August showed that, the best-known political group was the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) which attained 50.8 marks. Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU) and Neighbourhood and Worker's Service Centre (NWS) scored 50.7 and 50.4 marks and ranked 2nd and 3rd. The 4th to 9th places were Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (HKASPDMC), Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL), Civic Party (CP), Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP) and Liberal Party (LP), attaining 48.8, 47.2, 46.1, 45.5, 45.3 and 44.7 marks respectively. The 10th place fell to League of Social Democrats (LSD) with 32.6. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 49.6 marks. For this latest survey, New People's Party and People Power obtained a support rating of 46.4 and 34.9 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	17-27/11/10	15-19/2/11	23-31/5/11	23-30/8/11	No. of times on top 10	Average rating[10]	Overall ranking[11]
HKCTU	52.1	56.2	49.2	50.7	4	52.0	{1}
HKASPDMC	49.6	57.5	51.7	48.8	4	51.9	{2}
FTU	52.8	52.5	50.4	50.8	4	51.6	{3}
CP	50.0	53.3	49.2	46.1	4	49.6	{4}
DP	49.9	53.3	47.7	45.3	4	49.1	{5}
ADPL	49.1	48.5	48.3	47.2	4	48.3	{6}
DAB	48.3	44.2	46.7	45.5	4	46.2	{7}
LP	43.9	44.6	43.2	44.7	4	44.1	{8}
LSD	36.2	37.3	32.7	32.6	4	34.7	{9}
NWS	--	52.8	51.0	50.4	3	51.4	{10}
Frontier	47.5	--	--	--	1	47.5	{11}

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that, the top nine political groups were listed for four times. HKCTU was in the top rank, achieving an average rating of 52.0 marks. HKASPDMC, FTU, CP and DP ranked 2nd to 5th, attaining 51.9, 51.6, 49.6 and 49.1 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the 6th to 9th ranks fell to ADPL, DAB, LP and LSD, with respective average ratings of 48.3, 46.2, 44.1 and 34.7 marks. NWS was listed for three times while Frontier was listed once, now ranked the 10th and 11th with 51.4 and 47.5 marks.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from May 23 to 31 while this survey was conducted from August 23 to 30. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

29/8/11	Commissioner of Police Andy Tsang clarified the security actions made during Vice Premier's stay.
16/8/11	Vice-Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang arrived in Hong Kong for a three-day official visit.
27/7/11	Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office director Wang Guangya commented on the governing ability of Hong Kong civil servant.
15/7/11	Donald Tsang speaking at his Legislative Council question-and-answer session.
4/7/11	Government announces to postpone the vote on the bill to scrap by-elections.
1/7/11	Many newspapers on the following day report the July 1 march.
16/6/11	Government proposes methods for the $6,000 handouts for HK residents.
7/6/11	The Legislative Council investigates the tender process of the "Internet Learning Support Programme".
4/6/11	150,000 people gather at the Victoria Park in remembrance of the 22nd anniversary of June 4th incident.
31/5/11	Donald Tsang's flat is reported to have illegal structures in the balcony.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey of "Top 10 Political Groups" conducted in late August shows that, compared to three months ago, the ratings of 7 out of 10 political groups have gone down. Among them, those with drops beyond sampling error include CP, HKASPDMC and DP, down by 3.1, 2.9 and 2.4 marks respectively. The right of abode issue for foreign domestic helpers, the fading away of the Szeto Wah effect, and the prostitution scandal of DP's former Secretary-General Chan Ka-wai, may have contributed to these drops respectively. Among the "Top 10 Political Groups", only FTU, HKCTU and NWS have more than 50 marks, and all three are labour and community service groups. In terms of relative rankings, FTU and HKCTU go up 2 positions each to rank 1st and 2nd, while NWS goes down 1 position to rank 3rd. HKASPDMC drops 3 places to rank 4th, ADPL and CP swap positions to rank the 5th and 6th, DAB and DP swap positions to rank the 7th and 8th, while LP and LSD continue to take the 9th and 10th positions with the latter scoring all-time record low since its establishment. It should be noted, however, that our "Top 10 Political Groups" only include groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. As to what events have affected the ups and downs of the popularity of these groups, readers can make their own judgment after reading through detailed records placed in our "Opinion Daily"."

• September 12, 2011 (Monday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials