HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on August 30, 2011

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,009 Hong Kong people between 16 and 23 August 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang continues to fluctuate within a narrow range. CE's latest support rating stands at 47.9 marks, with an approval rate of 23%, and a net popularity of negative 41 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's satisfaction rate has significantly gone up by 5 percentage points to 22%, while their dissatisfaction rate has significantly gone down by 6 percentage points to 47%, giving a net popularity of negative 25 percentage points. Indepth analyses show that post-80s are more critical of Tsang's appointment as CE, with a disapproval rate reaching 71%. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is between +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,009 successful interviews, not 1,009 x 66.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
16-23/8/2011	1,009	66.0%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	23-29/6/11	4-7/7/11	21-25/7/11	1-9/8/2011	16-23/8/2011	Latest Change
Sample base	1,036	1,005	1,004	1,001	1,009	--
Overall response rate	68.7%	67.4%	67.1%	63.4%	66.0%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	47.1	45.6^[9]	46.0	48.3^[9]	47.9+/-1.4	-0.4
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	26%	24%	23%	24%	23%+/-3%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	61%^[9]	64%	65%	60%^[9]	64+/-3%	+4%^[9]
Net approval rate	-35%	-40%	-42%	-36%	-41%	-5%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	20%	--	17%	--	22+/-4%	+5%^[9]
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	50%^[9]	--	53%	--	47+/-4%	-6%^[9]
Net satisfaction rate	-30%	--	-36%	--	-25%	+11%
Mean value^[8]	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=598)	--	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=499)	--	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=499)	+0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 507.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 47.9 marks, and 23% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 22% were satisfied, whereas 47% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.5, meaning in between "half-half" and "quite dissatisfied".

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into post-80s generation and non-post 80s generation. Herewith further analysis of vote of confidence in CE Donald Tasng by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 16-23/8/2011		Post-80s generation	Non-post 80s generation	Overall sample
Vote of confidence/no confidence in CE Donald Tsang^[10]	Confidence	18+/-5% (42)	25+/-3% (192)	24+/-3% (235)
	No confidence	71+/-6% (164)	61+/-4% (467)	63+/-3% (630)
	Don't know/ Hard to say	11+/-4% (25)	14+/-2% (104)	13+/-2% (129)
	Total	100% (231)	100% (763)	100% (994)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 21 to 25 July, 2011 while this survey was conducted from 16 to 23 August, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

23/8/11	14th Plenary of Hong Kong/Guangdong Co-operation Joint Conference was held.
22/8/11	Overall inflation rate rises to 7.9% in July.
17/8/11	Visiting Vice Premier Li Keqiang declared to strengthen the position of Hong Kong as a hub of yuan transactions.
16/8/11	Vice-Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang arrived in Hong Kong for a three-day official visit.
11/8/11	Computer hackers made a second attempt to crash the website of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited.
10/8/11	Computer hackers attacked the website of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited.
9/8/11	The price of the luxury site in Kau To Shan was far below market expectation.
8/8/11	Global stock markets slid to their lowest level in recent years.
7/8/11	Hang Seng Index is likely to drop significantly because of global financial crisis.
27/7/11	Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office director Wang Guangya commented on the governing ability of Hong Kong civil servant.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang continues to fluctuate within a narrow range. CE's latest support rating stands at 47.9 marks, with an approval rate of 23%, and a net popularity of negative 41 percentage points. As for the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, people's satisfaction rate has significantly gone up by 5 percentage points to 22%, while their dissatisfaction rate has significantly gone down by 6 percentage points to 47%, giving a net popularity of negative 25 percentage points. Indepth analyses show that post-80s are more critical of Tsang's appointment as CE, with a disapproval rate reaching 71%. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

September 6, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of Top Ten Political Groups