HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack
| Press Release on August 16, 2011 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract
The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong people between August 1 and 9 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the support ratings of CE and all three Secretaries of Departments have rebounded significantly. Donald Tsang's latest support rating is 48.3 marks. His approval rate now stands at 24%, disapproval rate at 60%, net popularity at negative 36 percentage points, and his performance remains to be "depressing". As for the three Secretaries of Departments, CS Henry Tang has a support rating of 50.0 marks, an approval rate of 34%, and a disapproval rate of 26%, his net popularity goes up from negative 1 percentage point to positive 8 percentage points. FS John Tsang has a support rating of 47.3 marks, an approval rate of 26%, a disapproval rate of 34%, and his net popularity goes up from negative 16 percentage points to negative 8 percentage points now. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 57.7 marks, approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 8%, and his net popularity goes up from positive 44 percentage points to positive 49 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 8 among the 12 Directors have gone up and 4 have gone down. Among them, 2 Directors have registered significant jumps in approval rates beyond sampling error. They include Secretary for Food and Health York Chow and Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, up by 9 and 5 percentage points respectively. Michael Suen, Stephen Lam, Tsang Tak-sing and Gregory So register negative popularity, at negative 18, 12, 3 and 1 percentage points respectively. According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam and York Chow now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Henry Tang, Tsang Tak-sing, Stephen Lam, John Tsang and Michael Suen can be labeled as "mediocre", while that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang "depressing". No official falls under the category of "disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 63%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] The sample size of this survey is 1,001 successful interviews, not 1,001 x 63.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". [4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. [5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.
Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. [15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. [16] Gregory So was appointed the post of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development on June 28. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 48.3 marks, and 24% supported him as the Chief Executive, his net approval rate is negative 36%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 50.0, 47.3 and 57.7 marks, and 34%, 26% and 57% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 8%, negative 8% and positive 49% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, attaining 62%. His net approval rate is positive 53%. The 2nd to 3rd places belonged to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, with approval rate 56% and 52% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 44% and 28% respectively. Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam, Secretary for Education Michael Suen and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So ranked 4th to 12th, as they gained 48%, 38%, 37%, 33%, 31%, 29%, 26%, 24% and 19% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 38%, positive 17%, positive 16%, positive 20%, positive 20%, negative 3%, negative 12%, negative 18% and negative 1%. In other words, only Ambrose Lee, Carrie Lam and York Chow scored approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from July 4 to 7, 2011 while this survey was conducted from August 1 to 9, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.
Our latest survey shows that the support ratings of CE and all three Secretaries of Departments have rebounded significantly. Donald Tsang's latest support rating is 48.3 marks. His approval rate now stands at 24%, disapproval rate at 60%, net popularity at negative 36 percentage points, and his performance remains to be "depressing". As for the three Secretaries of Departments, CS Henry Tang has a support rating of 50.0 marks, an approval rate of 34%, and a disapproval rate of 26%, his net popularity goes up from negative 1 percentage point to positive 8 percentage points. FS John Tsang has a support rating of 47.3 marks, an approval rate of 26%, a disapproval rate of 34%, and his net popularity goes up from negative 16 percentage points to negative 8 percentage points now. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 57.7 marks, approval rate 57%, disapproval rate 8%, and his net popularity goes up from positive 44 percentage points to positive 49 percentage points. Wong Yan-lung remains to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 8 among the 12 Directors have gone up and 4 have gone down. Among them, 2 Directors have registered significant jumps in approval rates beyond sampling error. They include Secretary for Food and Health York Chow and Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, up by 9 and 5 percentage points respectively. Michael Suen, Stephen Lam, Tsang Tak-sing and Gregory So register negative popularity, at negative 18, 12, 3 and 1 percentage points respectively. According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung, Carrie Lam and York Chow now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Henry Tang, Tsang Tak-sing, Stephen Lam, John Tsang and Michael Suen can be labeled as "mediocre", while that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang "depressing". No official falls under the category of "disastrous". The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
[17] In one decimal place, the approval rate of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung is 26.3% while the approval rate of FS John Tsang Chun-wah is 25.7%.
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Future Release (Tentative)
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| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | Future Release (Tentative) | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
