HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of Executive CouncilorsBack

Press Release on August 9, 2011

Abstract

The latest survey conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong shows that compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of "top 5" non-official Executive Councillors have not changed much. Among them, only that of Ronald Arculli has dropped significantly by 2.3 marks. In terms of familiarity, Lau Kong-wah who occupied the third position last time has dropped out of the list, replaced by Leong Che-hung this time. In terms of absolute ratings, all councillors score less than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Ronald Arculli and Leung Chun-ying remain on the first and second positions, while Leong Che-hung re-enters the list to occupy the third position, and Cheng Yiu-tong and Lau Wong-fat remain at the fourth and fifth positions. It should be noted, however, that our list of "top five" only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figures is below +/-2.3 marks. The response rate of the rating survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey on top 5 Executive Councillors is 1,028 successful interviews, not 1,028 x 66.4% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 67.1% response rate.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of Executive Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages/ratings^[6]
11-20/7/2011 (First stage naming survey)	1,028	66.4%	+/-3%
21-25/7/2011 (Second stage rating survey）	1,004	67.1%	+/-2.3

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top 5 Executive Councillors" is similar to that of our "Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid July. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Latest findings of the naming survey are as follows:

Date of survey	12-15/7/10	14-21/10/10	5-7/1/11	4-12/4/11	11-20/7/11	Latest Change in Ranking
Sample base	1,010	1,013	575	1,005	1,028^[7]	--
Overall response rate	64.1%	65.4%	66.4%	68.5%	66.4%	--
Finding/ Error	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Leung Chun-ying	24%{1}	24%{1}	16%{1}	23%{1}	34+/-4%{1}	--
Cheng Yiu-tong	5%{4}	4%{5}	4%{5}	7%{2}	7+/-2%{2}	--
Anthony Cheung	5%{3}	2%{6}	1%{7}	3%{6}	6+/-2%{3}	↑3
Lau Wong-fat	2%{8}	19%{2}	5%{2}	6%{3}	4+/-2%{4}^[8]	↓1
Leong Che-hung	3%{6}	2%{7}	1%{8}	2%{8}	4+/-2%{5}^[8]	↑3
Ronald Arculli	10%{2}	6%{3}	4%{3}	5%{4}	3+/-1%{6}	↓2
Lau Kong-wah	3%{7}	6%{4}	4%{4}	5%{5}	2+/-1%{7}	↓2
Laura M Cha	1%{9}	1%{9}	2%{6}	2%{7}	1+/-1%{8}^[9]	↓1
Anna Wu	4%{5}	2%{8}	<1%{12}	2%{9}	1+/-1%{9}^[9]	--
Marvin Cheung	0%{13}	<1%{11}	0%{13}	<1%{10}	<1+/-1%{10}	--
Lawrence Lau	1%{10}	1%{10}	<1%{10}	<1%{11}	0%^[10]	--
Charles Lee	<1%{11}	<1%{13}	<1%{9}	<1%{12}	0%^[10]	--
Marjorie Yang	<1%{12}	<1%{14}	<1%{11}	0%{13}	0%^[10]	--
V Nee Yeh	0%{13}	<1%{12}	0%{13}	0%{13}	0%^[10]	--
Wrong answer	25%	21%	19%	15%	27+/-4%	--
Don't know/hard to say	53%	55%	65%	64%	50+/-4%	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings in our naming survey. Councillors with the same recognition rate will be ranked according to the decimal place of the corresponding percentages. Please refer to the POP Site for detailed figures of the previous surveys. The error margin of previous surveys can also be found at the POP Site. The sub-sample size for this survey is 580.
[8] The percentages of respondents who could name Lau Wong-fat and Leong Che-hung were 3.9% and 3.6%. Hence Lau Wong-fat ranked the 4th, while Leong Che-hung was placed at the 5th rank.
[9] The percentages of respondents who could name Laura M Cha and Anna Wu were 1.5% and 0.5%. Hence Laura M Cha ranked the 8th, while Anna Wu was placed at the 9th rank.
[10] No respondent could name Lawrence Lau, Charles Lee, Marjorie Yang and V Nee Yeh, their names in the above table are in alphabetical order.

The naming survey conducted in mid July showed that Leung Chun-ying was named most frequently with a recognition rate of 34%, followed by Cheng Yiu-tong with a recognition rate of 7% and ranked the 2nd. Anthony Cheung, Lau Wong-fat and Leong Che-hung with recognition rate of 6%, 4%, and 4%, and ranked the 3rd to 5th..However, 27% made a wrong attempt at citing Executive Councillors (non-official) while 50% had no clue.

Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in late July, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	19-21/7/10	26-30/10/10	11-19/1/11	15-29/4/11	21-25/7/11		Latest change
Sample base	1,007	1,009	520-549	558-626	551-642		--
Overall response rate	66.2%	63.3%	66.1%	59.7%	67.1%		--
Finding/ Recognition rate	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error ^[11]	Recognition rate	--
Ronald Arculli	48.8 {1}^[13]	49.5 {1}	53.6 {1}	51.3 {1}^[13]	49.0{1}+/-1.9	76%	-2.3^[13]
Leung Chun-ying	45.6 {3}^[13]	47.5 {2}^[13]	51.2 {2}	47.6 {2}^[13]	48.1{2}+/-1.7	86%	+0.5
Leong Che-hung	47.2 {2}	--	--	--	47.4{3}+/-2.2	70%	+0.2
Cheng Yiu-tong	41.8 {5}^[13]	43.9 {3}^[13]	49.6 {3}	43.9 {4}^[13]	42.2{4}+/-2.3	69%	-1.7
Lau Wong-fat	--	33.1 {5}	37.6 {5}	37.3 {5}	38.0{5}+/-2.0	86%	+0.7
Anthony Cheung	46.7^[12][13]	48.4^[12][13]	--	48.5^[12]	47.5+/-2.0^[12]	58%	-1.0
Laura M Cha	--	--	48.6^[12]	--	--	--	--
Lau Kong-wah	--	43.5 {4}	48.6 {4}	44.2 {3}^[13]	--	--	--
Anna Wu	42.1 {4}	--		--	--	--	--

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.3 marks at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest rating survey conducted in late July showed that Ronald Arculli was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 49.0 marks. The 2nd rank went to Leung Chun-ying with 48.1 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Leong Che-hung, Cheng Yiu-tong and Lau Wong-fat with 47.4, 42.2 and 38.0 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 44.9 marks. For this latest survey, Anthony Cheung obtained a support rating of 47.5 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	26-30/10/10	11-19/1/11	15-29/4/11	21-25/7/11	No.of times on top 5	Average rating^[14]	Overall ranking^[15]
Ronald Arculli	49.5	53.6	51.3	49.0	4	50.9	1
Leung Chun-ying	47.5	51.2	47.6	48.1	4	48.6	2
Cheng Yiu-tong	43.9	49.6	43.9	42.2	4	44.9	3
Lau Wong-fat	33.1	37.6	37.3	38.0	4	36.5	4
Lau Kong-wah	43.5	48.6	44.2	-	3	45.4	5
Leong Che-hung	-	-	-	47.4	1	47.4	6

[14] "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
[15] "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that four non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. Ronald Arculli, Leung Chun-ying, Cheng Yiu-tong and Lau Wong-fat ranked 1st to 4th place respectively and achieved an average rating of 50.9, 48.6, 44.9 and 36.5 marks. Lau Kong-wah has been on the list for three times with rating of 45.4 marks, ranked at 5th place. Leong Che-hung has been on the list once with rating of 47.4 marks and ranked at 6th place.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from April 15 to 29, 2011 while this survey was conducted from July 21 to 25, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

15/7/11	Donald Tsang speaking at his Legislative Council question-and-answer session.
11/7/11	Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office director Wang Guangya talked about the conditions for the next Chief Executive of Hong Kong.
4/7/11	Government announces to postpone the vote on the bill to scrap by-elections.
1/7/11	Many newspapers on the following day report the July 1 march.
19/6/11	Government said there is a need to introduce measures to stabilize the property market.
18/6/11	Government to consider rebuild HOS flats.
13/6/11	Wang Guangya, director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office of the State Council visits Hong Kong.
19/5/11	Government's Pay Trend Survey shows that the salary of civil servants may increase by 5% to 7%.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of "top 5" non-official Executive Councillors have not changed much. Among them, only that of Ronald Arculli has dropped significantly by 2.3 marks. In terms of familiarity, Lau Kong-wah who occupied the third position last time has dropped out of the list, replaced by Leong Che-hung this time. In terms of absolute ratings, all councillors score less than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Ronald Arculli and Leung Chun-ying remain on the first and second positions, while Leong Che-hung re-enters the list to occupy the third position, and Cheng Yiu-tong and Lau Wong-fat remain at the fourth and fifth positions. It should be noted, however, that our list of "top five" only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the "Opinion Daily" of our POP Site."

Future Release (Tentative)

August 16, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials