HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on August 2, 2011

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong people between 21 and 25 July 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularities of CE Donald Tsang and the SAR Government remain low. CE's latest support rating stands at 46.0 marks, with an approval rate of 23%. CE's latest net popularity stands at negative 42 percentage points while that of the government stands at negative 36 percentage points, which is the worst figure since May 2004. Indepth analyses show that less than 10% of those of age below 30 are satisfied with the government's performance, while their net satisfaction stands at negative 46 percentage points, which is the worst among all age groups. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 67.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
21-25/7/2011	1,004	67.1%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	16-18/5/11	1-8/6/11	23-29/6/11	4-7/7/11	21-25/7/11	Latest Change
Sample base	1,007	1,000	1,036	1,005	1,004	--
Overall response rate	64.9%	69.0%	68.7%	67.4%	67.1%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	48.2^[9]	46.5^[9]	47.1	45.6^[9]	46.0+/-1.4	+0.4
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	27%	23%^[9]	26%	24%	23+/-3%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	57%	66%^[9]	61%^[9]	64%	65+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	-30%	-43%	-35%	-40%	-42%	+2%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	21%	--	20%	--	17+/-3%	-3%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	43%	--	50%^[9]	--	53+/-4%	+3%
Net satisfaction rate	-22%	--	-30%	--	-36%	+6%
Mean value^[8]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=614)	--	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=598)	--	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=499)	-0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state"sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 502.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 46.0 marks, and 23% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 18% were satisfied, whereas 50% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.5, meaning in between"half-half" and"quite dissatisfied".

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of satisfaction rate of SARG performance by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 21-25/7/2011		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Satisfaction/ dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[10]	Satisfaction	8+/-6% (8)	15+/-5% (30)	22+/-6% (45)	17+/-3% (83)
	Half-half	37+/-10% (35)	28+/-6% (54)	30+/-6% (62)	30+/-4% (150)
	Dissatisfaction	54+/-10% (50)	57+/-7% (111)	47+/-7% (97)	52+/-4% (258)
	Don't know / Hard to say	1+/-1% (1)	0+/-0% (0)	1+/-1% (3)	1+/-1% (3)
	Total	100% (93)	100% (195)	100% (207)	100% (495)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 23-29 June, 2011 while this survey was conducted from 21 to 25 July, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

15/7/11	Donald Tsang speaking at his Legislative Council question-and-answer session.
11/7/11	Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office director Wang Guangya talked about the conditions for the next Chief Executive of Hong Kong.
4/7/11	Government announces to postpone the vote on the bill to scrap by-elections.
1/7/11	Many newspapers on the following day report the July 1 march.
28/6/11	The replacement mechanism for filling midterm Legislative Council vacancies is revised.
24/6/11	Public hospitals set quota for non-local mothers.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed,"Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang and the SAR Government remain low. CE's latest support rating stands at 46.0 marks, with an approval rate of 23%. CE's latest net popularity stands at negative 42 percentage points while that of the government stands at negative 36 percentage points, which is the worst figure since May 2004. Indepth analyses show that less than 10% of those of age below 30 are satisfied with the government's performance, while their net satisfaction stands at negative 46 percentage points, which is the worst among all age groups. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "'Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

August 9, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Top 5 Executive Council members