HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

Press Release on July 19, 2011

Special Announcement

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has released via its "PopCon" electronic platform at http://popcon.hk all video clips shot by POP on July 1, 2011 at its July 1 Rally headcount check point. Members of the public can freely download such clips to run their own head count. Via the PopCon platform, POP continues to explain to the public how to run random head counts, and also encourages people to download all video clips to run a full count, and then upload their results onto PopCon. As of now, PopCon has registered quite a number of responses. Upon completion of the project, POP would upload these responses onto PopCon for pubic sharing.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong people between July 4 and 7 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey conducted after July 1 shows that the support ratings of CE Donald Tsang, CS Henry Tang and FS John Tsang are all closely above or below the danger line of 45 marks. If the situation persists, the government would fall into a governance crisis. Figures show that Donald Tsang's latest support rating is 45.6 marks, which is again record low since he became CE. His approval rate now stands at 24%, disapproval rate at 64%, net popularity at negative 40 percentage points, and his performance is close to "disastrous" again. As for the three Secretaries of Departments, CS Henry Tang has a support rating of 46.0 marks, an approval rate of 29%, and a disapproval rate of 30%, meaning that he registers a negative net popularity for the first time. FS John Tsang has a support rating of 44.9 marks, an approval rate of 21%, a disapproval rate of 37%, and thus a net popularity of negative 16 percentage points. Both his support rating and approval rate are at all time low since he was appointed FS. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 55.7 marks, approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 10%, and net popularity positive 44 percentage points. Although the figures are not bad, they are the worst since his appointment as SJ, probably due to his handling of legislation over the Legco vacancy replacement mechanism. As for the Directors of Bureaux, the approval rate of the newly appointed Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So now stands at 22%, however with a recognition rate of less than 50%, thus his performance falls into the category of "inconspicuous". Compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 7 among the other 11 incumbent Directors have gone up and 4 have gone down. Among them, 4 Directors have registered significant jumps in approval rates beyond sampling error. They include Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for Education Michael Suen, up by 11, 9, 6 and 5 percentage points respectively. Michael Suen, Stephen Lam and Tsang Tak-sing register negative popularity, at negative 30, 17 and 10 percentage points respectively. It should be noted that, the disapproval rate of Stephen Lam has gone up to its record high since he took office. Meanwhile, the disapproval rate of Michael Suen passed the 50% benchmark again, thereby making his performance "depressing". According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer any more. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung and Carrie Lam now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, York Chow, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Henry Tang, Tsang Tak-sing, Stephen Lam and John Tsang can be labeled as "mediocre", while that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang and Michael Suen "depressing". No official falls under the category of "disastrous". The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 67.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
4-7/7/2011	1,005	67.4%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error of percentages^[7] (maximum values)
1,300	+/- 2.8 %	1,350	+/- 2.7 %
1,200	+/- 2.9 %	1,250	+/- 2.8 %
1,100	+/- 3.0 %	1,150	+/- 3.0 %
1,000	+/- 3.2 %	1,050	+/- 3.1 %
900	+/- 3.3 %	950	+/- 3.2 %
800	+/- 3.5 %	850	+/- 3.4 %
700	+/- 3.8 %	750	+/- 3.7 %
600	+/- 4.1 %	650	+/- 3.9 %
500	+/- 4.5 %	550	+/- 4.3 %
400	+/- 5.0 %	450	+/- 4.7 %

[7] Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	3-10/5/11	16-18/5/11	1-8/6/11	23-29/6/11	4-7/7/2011	Latest change
Sample base	1,038	1,007	1,000	1,036	1,005	--
Overall response rate	65.3%	64.9%	69.0%	68.7%	67.4%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[8]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	50.0	48.2^[9]	46.5^[9]	47.1	45.6+/-1.5	-1.5^[9]
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	30%	27%	23%^[9]	26%	24+/-3%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	58%	57%	66%^[9]	61%^[9]	64+/-3%	+3%
Net approval rate	-28%	-30%	-43%	-35%	-40%	-5%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	1-9/3/11	4-12/4/11	3-10/5/11	1-8/6/11	4-7/7/2011	Latest change^[10]
Sample base^[10]	539-567	543-561	547-588	511-580	506-573	--
Overall response rate	65.4%	68.5%	65.3%	69.0%	67.4%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[11]	--
Ratings of CS Henry Tang	51.2^[12]	50.3	50.6	45.1^[12]	46.0+/-1.9	+0.9
Vote of confidence in CS Henry Tang	39%^[12]	30%^[12]	34%	29%^[12]	29+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in CS Henry Tang	23%	23%	24%	27%	30+/-4%	+3%
Net approval rate	16%	7%	10%	2%	-1%	-3%
Ratings of FS John Tsang	46.6^[12]	46.0	45.4	45.6	44.9+/-1.9	-0.7
Vote of confidence in FS John Tsang	31%^[12]	24%^[12]	25%	23%	21+/-4%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in FS John Tsang	37%^[12]	38%	37%	37%	37+/-4%	--
Net approval rate	-6%	-14%	-12%	-14%	-16%	-2%
Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong	61.1	59.6^[12]	59.8	59.1	55.7+/-1.7	-3.4^[12]
Vote of confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	61%	65%	66%	62%	54+/-4%	-8%^[12]
Vote of no confidence in SJ Y.L.Wong	3%^[12]	4%	5%	5%	10+/-3%	+5%^[12]
Net approval rate	58%	61%	61%	57%	44%	-13%

[10] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions, and also different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.9, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	3-10/5/11		1-8/6/11		4-7/7/2011		Latest Change
Total sample size^[13]	528-609		502-554		509-615		--
Overall response rate	65.3%		69.0%		67.4%		--
Sample base for each question/ Percentage of answer	Base	%	Base	%	Base	%& error^[14]	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	594	66%^[15]	536	58%^[15]	515	60+/-4%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	594	9%	536	10%	515	11+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	57%	--	48%	--	49%	+1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	528	51%	513	42%^[15]	543	51+/-4%	+9%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Carrie Lam	528	14%	513	20%^[15]	543	11+/-3%	-9%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	37%	--	22%	--	40%	+18%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung^[16]	594	43%	512	39%	518	50+/-4%	+11%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung	594	22%	512	19%	518	15+/-3%	-4%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	21%	--	20%	--	35%	+15%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	544	42%	510	47%^[15]	556	43+/-4%	-4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health York Chow	544	29%^[15]	510	24%^[15]	556	28+/-4%	+4%
Net approval rate	--	13%	--	23%	--	15%	-8%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng	602	42%	504	34%^[15]	583	40+/-4%	+6%^[15]
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng	602	21%	504	23%	583	24+/-4%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	21%	--	11%	--	16%	+5%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau	609	39%^[15]	502	32%^[15]	576	36+/-4%	+4%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau	609	18%^[15]	502	22%	576	16+/-3%	-6%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	21%	--	10%	--	20%	+10%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	581	36%	527	36%	540	34+/-4%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan	581	15%	527	12%	540	13+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	21%	--	24%	--	21%	-3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	583	30%	514	31%	533	29+/-4%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	583	13%	514	13%	533	14+/-3%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	17%	--	18%	--	15%	-3%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	560	28%	508	26%	615	27+/-4%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing	560	37%^[15]	508	36%	615	37+/-4%	+1%
Net approval rate	--	-9%	--	-11%	--	-10%	+1%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam	545	33%	554	25%^[15]	530	24+/-4%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam	545	26%	554	34%^[15]	530	41+/-4%	+7%^[15]
Net approval rate	--	7%	--	-9%	--	-17%	-8%
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So^[17]	--	--	--	--	554	22+/-4%	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So	--	--	--	--	554	20+/-3%	--
Net approval rate	--	--	--	--	--	2%	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	529	24%	515	15%^[15]	509	20+/-4%	+5%^[15]
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Michael Suen	529	45%	515	54%^[15]	509	50+/-4%	-4%
Net approval rate	--	-21%	--	-39%	--	-30%	+9%

[13] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[14] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[16] In two decimal places, the approval rate of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung is 49.54%.
[17] Gregory So was appointed the post of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development on June 28.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 45.6 marks, and 24% supported him as the Chief Executive, his net approval rate is negative 40%. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 46.0, 44.9 and 55.7 marks, and 29%, 21% and 54% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. Their net approval rates are negative 1%, negative 16% and positive 44% respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, attaining 60%. His net approval rate is positive 49%. The 2nd to 4th places belonged to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, with approval rate 51%, 50% and 43% respectively and their net approval rates are positive 40%, 35% and 15% respectively. Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So and Secretary for Education Michael Suen ranked 5th to 12th, as they gained 40%, 36%, 34%, 29%, 27%, 24%, 22% and 20% support from the public respectively. Their corresponding net approval rates are positive 16%, positive 20%, positive 21%, positive 15%, negative 10%, negative 17%, positive 2% and negative 30%. In other words, only Ambrose Lee and Carrie Lam scored approval rate of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from June 1 to 8, 2011 while this survey was conducted from July 4 to 7, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

4/7/11	Government announces to postpone the vote on the bill to scrap by-elections.
1/7/11	Many newspapers on the following day report the July 1 march.
28/6/11	The replacement mechanism for filling midterm Legislative Council vacancies is revised.
24/6/11	Public hospitals set quota for non-local mothers
18/6/11	Government to consider rebuild HOS flats.
16/6/11	Government proposes methods for the $6,000 handouts for HK residents.
10/6/11	Government to further tighten the mortgage lending rules.
2/6/11	The government launches the public consultation for building the third airport runway before 2030.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our survey conducted after July 1 shows that the support ratings of CE Donald Tsang, CS Henry Tang and FS John Tsang are all closely above or below the danger line of 45 marks. If the situation persists, the government would fall into a governance crisis. Figures show that Donald Tsang's latest support rating is 45.6 marks, which is again record low since he became CE. His approval rate now stands at 24%, disapproval rate at 64%, net popularity at negative 40 percentage points, and his performance is close to "disastrous" again.

As for the three Secretaries of Departments, CS Henry Tang has a support rating of 46.0 marks, an approval rate of 29%, and a disapproval rate of 30%, meaning that he registers a negative net popularity for the first time. FS John Tsang has a support rating of 44.9 marks, an approval rate of 21%, a disapproval rate of 37%, and thus a net popularity of negative 16 percentage points. Both his support rating and approval rate are at all time low since he was appointed FS. As for SJ Wong Yan-lung, his support rating is 55.7 marks, approval rate 54%, disapproval rate 10%, and net popularity positive 44 percentage points. Although the figures are not bad, they are the worst since his appointment as SJ, probably due to his handling of legislation over the Legco vacancy replacement mechanism.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, the approval rate of the newly appointed Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So now stands at 22%, however with a recognition rate of less than 50%, thus his performance falls into the category of "inconspicuous". Compared to one month ago, the approval rates of 7 among the other 11 incumbent Directors have gone up and 4 have gone down. Among them, 4 Directors have registered significant jumps in approval rates beyond sampling error. They include Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng and Secretary for Education Michael Suen, up by 11, 9, 6 and 5 percentage points respectively. Michael Suen, Stephen Lam and Tsang Tak-sing register negative popularity, at negative 30, 17 and 10 percentage points respectively. It should be noted that, the disapproval rate of Stephen Lam has gone up to its record high since he took office. Meanwhile, the disapproval rate of Michael Suen passed the 50% benchmark again, thereby making his performance "depressing".

According to POP's standard, no official falls under the category of "ideal" performer any more. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung and Carrie Lam now fall under the category of "successful" performer. The performance of Matthew Cheung, York Chow, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Henry Tang, Tsang Tak-sing, Stephen Lam and John Tsang can be labeled as "mediocre", while that of Ceajer Chan, Denise Yue and Gregory So can be labeled as "inconspicuous", and that of Donald Tsang and Michael Suen "depressing". No official falls under the category of "disastrous".

The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

"Ideal": those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

None

"Successful": those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong (60%); SJ Wong Yan-lung (54%); Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (51%)

"Mediocre": those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets

Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (50%^[18]); Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok (43%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah (40%); Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah (36%); CS Henry Tang Ying-yen (29%); Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing (27%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung (24%); FS John Tsang Chun-wah (21%)

"Inconspicuous": those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung (34%, 46%); Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee (29%, 43%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Gregory So Kam-leung (22%, 42%)

"Depressing": those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen (64%); Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung (50%)

"Disastrous": those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets

None

[18] In two decimal places, the approval rate of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung is 49.54%.

Future Release (Tentative)

July 26, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Ratings of top ten Legislative Councillors