HKU POP releases people's appraisal of society's conditionsBack

Press Release on July 14, 2011

Special Announcement

To promote the spirit of scientific enquiry, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will tomorrow release via its "PopCon" electronic platform at http://popcon.hk all video clips shot by POP on July 1, 2011 at its July 1 Rally headcount check point. Members of the public can freely download such clips to run their own head count. Via the PopCon platform, we will explain to the public how to run random head counts. However, we also encourage people to download all clips and run a full count, and then upload their results to PopCon for collective sharing. Director of POP Robert Chung considers the apparent conflict between science and democracy to be unnecessary, and scientific enquiry should not be entangled with any political ideology. Nevertheless, if there is really a conflict, all social scientists must choose science first and remain objective.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,011 Hong Kong people from June 27 to July 5, 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey conducted before and after July 1st rally finds that both in terms of absolute ratings and relative percentages, livelihood issues are definitely at the top of people's agenda, followed by economic and then political issues. As for the satisfaction figures, people's net satisfaction of the current economic, political and livelihood conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 10, negative 39 and negative 42 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate over livelihood condition reaches record high since 1992. In-depth analysis shows that those of age 18 to 49 are more critical of livelihood condition. Besides, people's dissatisfaction of the current political condition has also reached record high since June 2004. Recent events which have affected livelihood and political conditions include that of Legco replacement mechanism, illegal housing structures, disputes over"real estate hegemony", minimum wage, Budget follow-ups, and so on. We leave it for our readers to figure out any other reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page. The maximum sampling error of the survey is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the"HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,011 successful interviews, not 1,011 x 65.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.14 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses"computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of people's appraisal of society's conditions. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[6]
27/6-5/7/2011	1,011	65.7%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people's appraisal of society's conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	28-30/12/09	18-22/6/10^[7]	13-16/12/10	25-31/1/11^[11]	27/6-5/7/11	Latest change
Sample base	1,028	1,009	1,013	1,035	1,011	--
Overall response rate	66.5%	66.7%	67.4%	65.9%	65.7%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[8]	--
Most concerned with livelihood problems^[7]	42%	54%^[10]	52%	--	70+/-3%	+18%^[10]
Most concerned with economic problems	44%^[10]	31%^[10]	36%^[10]	--	20+/-3%	-16%^[10]
Most concerned with political problems	12%^[10]	12%	9%^[10]	--	7+/-2%	-2%
Rating on concern for livelihood problems^[7]	7.24	7.38^[10]	7.48	--	7.38+/-0.12	-0.10
Rating on concern for economic problems	7.19	7.05^[10]	7.25^[10]	--	7.16+/-0.11	-0.09
Rating on concern for political problems	5.62	5.90^[10]	5.86	--	5.71+/-0.14	-0.15^[10]
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate^[9]	35%^[10]	28%^[10]	36%^[10]	27%^[10]	30+/-3%	+3%
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[9]	36%	49%^[10]	37%^[10]	43%^[10]	40+/-3%	-3%
Mean value^[9]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=1,018)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=995)	2.9+/-0.1^[10] (Base=996)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,024)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=995)	--
Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate^[7][9]	37%^[10]	41%^[10]	33%^[10]	20%^[10]	16+/-2%	-4%^[10]
Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[7][9]	33%	35%	39%^[10]	49%^[10]	58+/-3%	+9%^[10]
Mean value^[9]	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=1,018)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=994)	2.8+/-0.1^[10] (Base=1,003)	2.6+/-0.1^[10] (Base=1,022)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	-0.2^[10]
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate^[9]	22%	26%^[10]	29%	19%^[10]	14+/-2%	-5%^[10]
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[9]	48%^[10]	49%	43%^[10]	44%	53+/-3%	+9%^[10]
Mean value^[9]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=950)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=959)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=937)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=1,001)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=962)	-0.2^[10]

[7] The wordings used before the June 2010 survey were"social problems" and"social condition". We take them to mean the same as"livelihood problems" and"livelihood condition" in the survey context.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.14 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[11] Results of this survey were released on March 3, 2011.

The survey conducted in between the late June and early July showed that 70% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems, 20% with economic problems, while 7% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people's concern over livelihood, economic and political problems were 7.38, 7.16 and 5.71 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction rates with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions were 30%, 16% and 14% respectively. The mean score of the economic, livelihood and political conditions are 2.8, 2.4 and 2.4, meaning close to"quite dissatisfied" and"half-half" in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of the satisfaction rate on current livelihood conditions by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 27/6-5/7/11		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Satisfaction rate on current livelihood conditions^[12]	Satisfied	7+/-4% (14)	12+/-3% (47)	25+/-4% (103)	16+/-2% (164)
	Half-half	27+/-6% (53)	25+/-4% (99)	25+/-4% (103)	25+/-3% (254)
	Dissatisfied	66+/-7% (130)	64+/-5% (254)	48+/-5% (201)	58+/-3% (585)
	Don't know/ hard to say	0+/-0% (0)	0+/-0% (0)	2+/-1% (8)	1+/-1% (8)
	Total	100% (196)	100% (399)	100% (415)	100% (1,011)
	Mean value	2.3+/-0.1 (196)	2.3+/-0.1 (399)	2.6+/-0.1 (407)	2.4+/-0.1 (1,003)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to"Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items of the previous survey were conducted from December 13 to 16, 2010 while this survey was conducted from June 27 to July 5, 2011. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

4/7/11	Government announces to postpone the vote on the bill to scrap by-elections.
1/7/11	Many newspapers on the following day report the July 1 march.
28/6/11	The replacement mechanism for filling midterm Legislative Council vacancies is revised.
24/6/11	Public hospitals set quota for non-local mothers
19/6/11	Government said there is a need to introduce measures to stabilize the property market.
18/6/11	Government to consider rebuild HOS flats.
4/6/11	150,000 people gather at the Victoria Park in remembrance of the 22nd anniversary of June 4th incident.
31/5/11	Donald Tsang's flat is reported to have illegal structures in the balcony.
13/5/11	The issue of inflation is getting severe in HK.
30/4/11	The minimum wage policy will implement tomorrow
2/3/11	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah announces a budget plan to distribute HK$6,000 cash handouts to all Hong Kong's adult permanent residents.
24/1/11	Home prices in Hong Kong is the most severely unaffordable among the 325 selected urban markets in the world.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed,"According to our latest survey conducted before and after July 1st rally, both in terms of absolute ratings and relative percentages, livelihood issues are definitely at the top of people's agenda, followed by economic and then political issues. As for the satisfaction figures, people's net satisfaction of the current economic, political and livelihood conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 10, negative 39 and negative 42 percentage points, while dissatisfaction rate over livelihood condition reaches record high since 1992. In-depth analysis shows that those of age 18 to 49 are more critical of livelihood condition. Besides, people's dissatisfaction of the current political condition has also reached record high since June 2004. Recent events which have affected livelihood and political conditions include that of Legco replacement mechanism, illegal housing structures, disputes over "real estate hegemony", minimum wage, Budget follow-ups, and so on. We leave it for our readers to figure out any other reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page."

Future Release (Tentative)

July 19, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and Principal Officials