"POP-NOW Public Sentiment Index Survey" released for the fifth timeBack

Press Release on July 11, 2011

Background

Since its establishment in 1991, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has been conducting different types of opinion studies on social and political issues, as well as providing research services for different organizations, on condition that POP would design and conduct all studies independently, and could also release the findings for public consumption. In January 2011, POP came into agreement with the"now News Channel" for a project called"Public Sentiment Index". The main objective of the project is to demonstrate, by focusing on ongoing discussions of public sentiment, how independent research institute and professional news media investigate, analyze, report and comment on public opinion, including the explanation and promotion of professional ethics of opinion studies. The project comprises conducting regular opinion surveys and other public opinion studies. The survey results will first be released in the"now News Channel", followed by POP press releases for public consumption."now News Channel" agrees to POP uploading these programmes to the POP Site for public education, while POP agrees that"now News Channel" uses these findings for productions without POP's involvement. This is the fifth release of the survey series, the last one was released on June 13. Please cite the source of the figures when using them.

Latest Figures

The latest survey findings released by POP through now News Channel today have been weighted according to the provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[1]
27/6-5/7/2011	1,011	65.7%	+/-3%

[1] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Latest findings are as follows:

I. Overall ratings of society's conditions and level of anger

Date of survey		21-30/3/11	26/4-2/5/11	30/5-3/6/11	27/6-5/7/11	Latest change^[3]
Sample base		1,018	1,032	1,007	1,011	--
Overall response rate		62.8%	68.3%	67.2%	65.7%	--
Latest result		Finding and error^[2]	Finding and error^[2]	Finding and error^[2]	Finding and error^[2]	--
Satisfaction rating of overall society's conditions (0-100)		53.5+/-1.1	52.1+/-1.1	50.8+/-1.2	51.6+/-1.1	+0.8
Will you use the word"angry" to describe your feeling towards current Hong Kong society?	Yes	17^[4]+/-2%	24+/-3%	27+/-3%	31+/-3%	+4%^[4]
	No	81^[4]+/-2%	75+/-3%	71+/-3%	68+/-3%	-3%
Rating of"anger" level (0-100)		45.0^[4]+/-1.5	47.3+/-1.4	49.7+/-1.5	52.2+/-1.6	+2.5^[4]
Anger tolerance before taking to the street (0-100) ^[3]		74.8+/-1.4	73.5+/-1.4	--	76.0+/-1.5	+2.5^[4]

[2] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[3] The frequency of survey for this series of question are the same, direct comparison can be made.
[4] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results show that the overall satisfaction rating of society's current conditions now stands at 51.6 marks. Besides, 31% of the respondents would describe themselves as"angry", the highest since the beginning of this survey series. And, 68% would not describe themselves as"angry". The mean score of"anger" now stands at 52.2 marks. Moreover, the threshold for people taking to the street now stands at 76.0 points of anger. Please see the following chart for more details:

Chart: The trend of"percentage of anger" and"rating of anger"

Indepth analysis of public grievances

1^st analysis: Comparison of the figures before and after July 1

Before July 1^[5]	Will you participate in the coming July 1 demonstration?
	Yes (Base=69)		No (Base=400)		Overall sample
Percentage of self-claimed as"angry"	62%		24%		31%
Percentage of self-claimed as"not angry"	38%		76%		69%
Rating of"anger" level	69.8 marks		45.9 marks		51.1 marks
After July 1^[6]	Have you participated in July 1 demonstration?
	Yes (Base=32)	No: but agree with the purpose and demand of the demonstration (Base=290)		No: disagree with the purpose and demand of the demonstration (Base=99)	Overall sample
Percentage of self-claimed as"angry"	54%	34%		24%	32%
Percentage of self-claimed as"not angry"	46%	66%		76%	68%
Rating of"anger" level	64.6 marks	55.5 marks		47.7 marks	53.5 marks

[5] The date of survey is in between 27 and 28 June, with 538 samples.
[6] The date of survey is in between 4 and 5 July, with 473 samples.

2^nd analysis: On-site survey of July 1 demonstration^[7]

The percentage of self-claimed as"angry"	79%
The percentage of self-claimed as"not angry"	18%
Rating of"anger" level	78.2 marks

[7] The survey was conducted on 1 July at 2-4 pm in Victoria Park. 230 participants of the demonstration were interviewed. The figures should be used for reference of qualitative analysis.

3^rd analysis: The following table shows the mapping between whether the respondents are angry or not, their"anger rating" and"the critical point for demonstration":

	Date of survey	Feeling"angry" towards current Hong Kong society?		Overall sample
	Date of survey	Yes	No	Overall sample
The rating of"anger level"	21-30/3/11	68.0+/-2.9 (171)	39.9+/-1.5 (806)	45.0+/-1.5 (990)
	26/4-2/5/11	68.4+/-2.2 (242)	40.5+/-1.5 (750)	47.3+/-1.4 (1,008)
	27/6-5/7/11	74.4+/-2.0 (310)	41.8+/-1.6 (665)	52.2+/-1.6 (989)
The"critical point for demonstration"	21-30/3/11	78.1+/-3.2 (144)	74.2+/-1.5 (699)	74.8+/-1.4 (823)
	26/4-2/5/11	77.9+/-2.8 (207)	72.0+/-1.7 (593)	73.5+/-1.4 (813)
	27/6-5/7/11	78.6+/-2.6 (263)	74.8+/-1.8 (548)	76.0+/-1.5 (817)

4^th analysis: Mapping respondents' individual ratings of"anger level" and their"critical point for demonstration", we can deduce the percentage of likely demonstrators as follows:

	Date of survey	At or above critical point	Below critical point	Not sure	Overall sample
Comparing"anger level" and"critical point for demonstration"	21-30/3/11	11+/-2% (117)	68+/-3% (696)	20+/-3% (206)	100% (1,018)
	26/4-2/5/11	12+/-2% (125)	66+/-3% (683)	22+/-3% (224)	100% (1,032)
	27/6-5/7/11	16+/-2% (163)	80+/-3% (812)	4+/-1% (36)	100% (1,011)

Indepth analyses show that among those respondents who described themselves as"angry", the mean score of"anger rating" is 74.4 marks, or about 4 marks short of the 78.6 for the"critical point for demonstration". Another analysis shows that 16% of the respondents have rated their anger level above their own"critical point for demonstration", meaning that they are ready to protest by means of gatherings, marches, demonstrations and so on at anytime.

II. Other questions

Over the past 3 months, what incidents in Hong Kong society made you feel angry? (ask those who self-reported"angry", open-ended question, multiple answers allowed)^[9]

Date of survey	30/5-3/6/11	27/6-5/7/11	Latest change
Sample base	1,007	1,011	--
Overall response rate	67.2%	65.7%	--
Latest result	Finding and error^[8]	Finding and error^[8]	--
High property price/housing problems	9+/-2%	12+/-2%	+3%^[10]
The replacement mechanism of legislative councillors	1+/-1%	11+/-2%	+10%^[10]
The Budget Talk (including the arrangement of giving $6000)	4+/-1%	6+/-1%	+2%^[10]
High inflation	3+/-1%	5+/-1%	+2%^[10]
Pregnant women from Mainland China giving birth to children in Hong Kong	2+/-1%	5+/-1%	+3%^[10]
The problems of illegal structures in residence	9+/-2%	4+/-1%	-5%^[10]
Performance of government officials	4+/-1%	3+/-1%	-1%
National education	--	2+/-1%	+2%^[10]
Demonstration / violent acts	2+/-1%	2+/-1%	--
Medical problems	1+/-1%	1+/-1%	--
Arguments about minimum wage	2+/-1%	1+/-1%	-1%
Increase fares of public transports	1+/-1%	1+/-1%	--
Others (performance of legislative councillors, educational policies, etc.)	5+/-1%	5+/-1%	--
Don't know	2+/-1%	3+/-1%	+1%

[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[9] The question asked only those who said they were"angry", but all percentages shown are based on overall sample.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Over the past 3 months, what incidents in the Hong Kong society made people angry? Results show that 12% and 11% of the overall samples mentioned"high property price/housing problems" and"the replacement mechanism of legislative councillors" respectively. Other answers include"Budget Talk" (6%),"High inflation" (5%),"Pregnant women from Mainland China giving birth to children in Hong Kong" (5%),"The problems of illegal structures in residence" (4%), and so on.

The satisfaction rate towards the current social conditions:

Date of survey		18-22/6/10	25-31/1/11	27/6-5/7/11	Latest change
Sample base		1,009	1,035	1,011	--
Overall response rate		66.7%	65.9%	65.7%	--
Latest result		Finding and error^[11]	Finding and error^[11]	Finding and error^[11]	--
Economic condition	Satisfaction rate^[12]	41+/-3%	27+/-3%	30+/-3%	+3%
	Dissatiscation rate^[12]	35+/-3%	43+/-3%	40+/-3%	-3%
	Mean value^[12]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=994)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,024)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=995)	--
Livelihood condition	Satisfaction rate^[12]	28+/-3%	20+/-2%	16+/-2%	-4%^[13]
	Dissatiscation rate^[12]	49+/-3%	49+/-3%	58+/-3%	+9%^[13]
	Mean value^[12]	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=995)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=1,022)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	-0.2^[13]
Political condition	Satisfaction rate^[12]	26+/-3%	19+/-2%	14+/-2%	-5%^[13]
	Dissatiscation rate^[12]	49+/-3%	44+/-3%	53+/-3%	+9%^[13]
	Mean value^[12]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=959)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=1,001)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=962)	+0.2^[13]

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
In the three different areas, 30% of respondents expressed that they are satisfied with the economic conditions while 40% are dissatisfied with that. In the area of livelihood conditions, 16% said that they are satisfied while 58% are dissatisfied with this. In addition, there are 14% satisfied with the political conditions, 53% are dissatisfied with this. The mean value of economic, livelihood and political conditions are 2.8 marks, 2.4 marks and 2.4 marks respectively.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary is extracted and enhanced from the comments made by the Director of Public Opinion Programme Dr Robert Chung on July 11, 2011 in the"now News Channel" programme "News Magazine", in the "now Survey on Public Sentiment Index" segment. Some questions and answers are provided by POP.

Q: How is the latest level of public grievances in Hong Kong?

A: The latest survey shows that public grievances are at their highest level. The level (31%) and rating (52.2 marks) of anger, as well as the percentage of angry people beyond"critical point" (16%) have all reached their highest level since the beginning of this survey series.

Q: How to interpret the current situation of 'boiling grievance'?

A: Dispute on the"replacement mechanism of Legislative Councillors" is no doubt the focus of public grievance detected by this survey, as the level of anger increases sharply by 10 percentage points over a month. Meanwhile, livelihood issues like"high property price / housing problems","Budget proposals" and"inflation" still remain at the centre of public grievances.

Q: Are there any further analysis?

A: From the academic and technical perspectives, the general trend of public grievance since the beginning of these series of survey has moved in a"Z-shape" curve. The overall indicator of anger went to its peak in late February right after the Budget Talk, then dropped to its lowest point in late March, and then rebounded gradually to reach another peak in late June to early July. Indepth analysis before and after July 1 showed that the overall ratings of public grievance (based on the overall sample) increased from 51.1 marks registered before July 1 to 53.5 marks obtained after July 1. For the rally participants, the average score was 69.8 marks for those who said they would participate, then became close to 80 marks for the actual participants, and finally dropped to 64.6 marks after joining the July 1 rally. It thus seems that taking part in the demonstration can actually help to relieve public grievances.