HKU POP releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on July 5, 2011

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,036 Hong Kong people between 23 and 29 June 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey conducted in late June before July 1 shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang and the SAR Government remain low. CE's latest support rating stands at 47.1 marks, with an approval rate of 26%. CE's latest net popularity stands at negative 35 percentage points while that of the government stands at negative 30 percentage points, which is the biggest negative value registered since June 2004. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to three months ago, the satisfaction rates of all items have dropped, to record lows since 2003 or 2004. In terms of net satisfaction rate, only its relation with the Central Government has registered a positive value at positive 14 percentage points. Other four items all registered negative values: protection of human rights and freedom at negative 8 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at negative 16 percentage points, developing democracy at negative 22 percentage points, and improving people's livelihood at negative 41 percentage points with over 50% dissatisfaction rate, rendering it an obvious area for immediate improvement. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 69%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,036 successful interviews, not 1,036 x 68.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
23-29/6/2011	1,036	68.7%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	22/4-2/5/11	3-10/5/11	16-18/5/11	1-8/6/11	23-29/6/11	Latest Change
Sample base	1,072	1,038	1,007	1,000	1,036	--
Overall response rate	65.9%	65.3%	64.9%	69.0%	68.7%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[7]	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	50.4	50.0	48.2^[9]	46.5^[9]	47.1+/-1.4	+0.6
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	29%	30%	27%	23%^[9]	26+/-3%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	59%	58%	57%	66%^[9]	61+/-3%	-5%^[9]
Net approval rate	-30%	-28%	-30%	-43%	-35%	+8%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	22%	--	21%	--	20+/-3%	-1%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	45%^[9]	--	43%	--	50+/-4%	+7%^[9]
Net satisfaction rate	-23%^[9]	--	-22%	--	-30%	-8%
Mean value^[8]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=766)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=614)	--	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=598)	-0.1

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state"sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.4, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 606.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 47.1 marks, and 26% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 20% were satisfied, whereas 50% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.5, meaning between"half-half" and"quite dissatisfied" in general.

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	18-22/6/10	18-24/9/10	17-22/12/10	14-23/3/11	23-29/6/11	Latest Change^[13]
Sample base^[13]	1,009	1,010	1,017	549-617	541-626	--
Overall response rate	66.7%	66.2%	66.4%	63.1%	68.7%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[10]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[11]	49%	57%^[12]	52%^[12]	47%^[12]	39+/-4%	-8%^[12]
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	28%^[12]	13%^[12]	19%^[12]	19%	25+/-4%	+6%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	+21%	+44%	+33%	+28%	+14%	-14%
Mean value^[11]	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=930)	3.5+/-0.1^[12] (Base=957)	3.4+/-0.1 (Base=935)	3.3+/-0.1 (Base=563)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=524)	-0.2^[12]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[11]	38%^[12]	49%^[12]	43%^[12]	40%	31+/-4%	-9%^[12]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	41%^[12]	24%^[12]	27%	29%	39+/-4%	+10%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	-3%	+25%	+16%	+11%	-8%	-19%
Mean value^[11]	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=971)	3.2+/-0.1^[12] (Base=992)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=982)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=586)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=538)	-0.3^[12]
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[11]	40%^[12]	37%	36%	32%	28+/-4%	-4%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	37%	29%^[12]	33%^[12]	35%	44+/-4%	+9%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	+3%	+8%	+3%	-3%	-16%	-13%
Mean value^[11]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=996)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=995)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=1,003)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=528)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=535)	-0.2^[12]
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[11]	32%	34%	30%^[12]	27%	25+/-3%	-2%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	45%	33%^[12]	40%^[12]	43%	47+/-4%	+4%
Net satisfaction rate	-13%	+1%	-10%	-16%	-22%	-6%
Mean value^[11]	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=951)	2.9+/-0.1^[12] (Base=979)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=954)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=575)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=596)	-0.1
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[11]	26%	23%	21%	18%	16+/-3%	-2%
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	53%^[12]	44%^[12]	54%^[12]	53%	57+/-4%	+4%
Net satisfaction rate	-27%	-21%	-33%	-35%	-41%	-6%
Mean value^[11]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=992)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=996)	2.5+/-0.1^[12] (Base=1,002)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=585)	2.3+/-0.1 (Base=547)	-0.2^[12]

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level."95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[13] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 39%. The government's performance in protecting human rights and freedom followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 31%. Finally, a respective of 28%, 25% and 16% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, developing democracy as well as improving people's livelihood. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.1, 2.8, 2.7, 2.6 and 2.3 respectively, meaning close to"half-half" or"quite dissatisfied" in general.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from March 14 to 23, 2011 while this survey was conducted from June 23 to 29, 2011. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

29/6/11	The replacement mechanism for filling midterm Legislative Council vacancies is revised.
24/6/11	Public hospitals set quota for non-local mothers.
18/6/11	Government to consider rebuild HOS flats.
16/6/11	Government proposes methods for the $6,000 handouts for HK residents.
13/6/11	Wang Guangya, director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office of the State Council visits Hong Kong.
4/6/11	150,000 people gather at the Victoria Park in remembrance of the 22nd anniversary of June 4th incident.
31/5/11	Donald Tsang's flat is reported to have illegal structures in the balcony.
30/4/11	The minimum wage policy will implement tomorrow
21/4/11	Hong Kong inflation becomes severe.
14/3/11	Premier Wen Jiabao advises HK to plan developments and resolve social conflicts.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed,"Our latest survey conducted in late June before July 1 shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang and the SAR Government remain low. CE's latest support rating stands at 47.1 marks, with an approval rate of 26%. CE's latest net popularity stands at negative 35 percentage points while that of the government stands at negative 30 percentage points, which is the biggest negative value registered since June 2004. As for the five specific policy areas, compared to three months ago, the satisfaction rates of all items have dropped, to record lows since 2003 or 2004. In terms of net satisfaction rate, only its relation with the Central Government has registered a positive value at positive 14 percentage points. Other four items all registered negative values: protection of human rights and freedom at negative 8 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at negative 16 percentage points, developing democracy at negative 22 percentage points, and improving people's livelihood at negative 41 percentage points with over 50% dissatisfaction rate, rendering it an obvious area for immediate improvement. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily"."

Future Release (Tentative)

July 12, 2011 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Legislative Councillors, Hong Kong Police Force and PLA Hong Kong Garrison