HKU POP SITE releases HKSAR Anniversary survey and forecasts July 1 study arrangementsBack
| Press Release on June 30, 2011 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
| Special Announcement | Abstract of Anniversary Survey | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special Announcement
The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will conduct a headcount of July 1 Rally participants tomorrow, and release its preliminary results via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) in the evening, around 2 to 4 hours after the rally. POP will also conduct a small scale survey on-site for qualitative reference.
Moreover, a "PopCon" electronic platform which integrates social-networking, entertainment, shopping and education (SESE) activities targeted at young people was launched in February. PopCon now runs a guessing game for the number of July 1 Rally participants, as well as a "television audience study" feature page, with trendy prizes sponsored by Asia Television (ATV). All are welcome. The address of PopCon is http://popcon.hkupop.pori.hk. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract of Anniversary Survey
POP interviewed 1,028 Hong Kong people between 17 and 22 June, 2011 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. As the 14th Handover Anniversary draws near, our survey shows that, compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people's sense of pride in becoming a Chinese national citizen has dropped 7 percentage points to slightly over 40%, which is a 7-year low, probably due to incidents of Liu Xiaobo, Zhao Lianhai, and Ai Weiwei. Regarding people's appraisal of the Central Government's Hong Kong policies, this year's positive figure has plummeted by almost 20 percentage points to below 35%, which is also a 7-year low. People are probably worried about interference of local affairs by the Central Government. Nevertheless, people's net appraisal of the Central Government's Hong Kong policies still remains positive, at positive 13 percentage points. Further analyses show that our 'post 80s' feel significantly less proud of becoming a Chinese national citizen than the 'non post 80s'. They are also more critical of the Central Government's policies on Hong Kong. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the survey is 68%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. [2] Since the figures in this release come from the annual survey conducted by HKUPOP in 2011, these yearly figures are good for general reviews of Hong Kong's development. [3] The sample size of this survey is 1,028 successful interviews, not 1,028 x 68.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. [4] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level". [5] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures. [6] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the POP SITE the latest survey results related to the handover anniversary. The two questions are "people's feeling of becoming a national citizen of China" and "people's evaluation of the policy of Central Government on Hong Kong". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2010 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
[7] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
The survey results are tabulated below:
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. [10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Results of the latest anniversary survey revealed that, 41% of the respondents were proud of becoming a national citizen of China after the handover, while 55% said they did not have any special feeling. As for the policy of the Central Government on Hong Kong after the handover, 34% of the respondents evaluated it positively, whereas 21% gave negative evaluations. The mean score is 3.1 marks, meaning close to "half-half". | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondent being proud of becoming a national citizen of China and Central Government's policy on Hong Kong by age:
[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
Since August 2007, POP would normally include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. Yet, this press release is an exception. It is because for the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 18 to 22, 2010 while this survey was conducted from June 17 to 22, 2011. The two surveys were one year apart, and any of the significant events inside "Opinion Daily" in between might have affected people's comments for the year past. Thus, this press release would not further select the events from "Opinion Daily", but readers can make their own judgment based on the detailed records in the respective online section. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "As the 14th Handover Anniversary draws near, our survey shows that, compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people's sense of pride in becoming a Chinese national citizen has dropped 7 percentage points to slightly over 40%, which is a 7-year low, probably due to incidents of Liu Xiaobo, Zhao Lianhai, and Ai Weiwei. Regarding people's appraisal of the Central Government's Hong Kong policies, this year's positive figure has plummeted by almost 20 percentage points to below 35%, which is also a 7-year low. People are probably worried about interference of local affairs by the Central Government. Nevertheless, people's net appraisal of the Central Government's Hong Kong policies still remains positive, at positive 13 percentage points. Further analyses show that our 'post 80s' feel significantly less proud of becoming a Chinese national citizen than the 'non post 80s'. They are also more critical of the Central Government's policies on Hong Kong."
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Future Release (Tentative)
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
| Special Announcement | Abstract of Anniversary Survey | Latest Figures | Indepth Analysis | Opinion Daily | | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
